ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#821 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:16 pm

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#822 Postby redfish1 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:17 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I think the 0z model runs might be all over the place.


what time do they start?
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#823 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:19 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Well


Well...if the LLC IS way out there...then the MLC is back at 44...and that is no bueno.

It would change the ball game in a couple of ways. 1) moves the track way to the west...and 2) increased the likelihood of this opening up into a wave.


I actually didn't even notice the green dot under the blob when I first posted, I just noticed all the east winds running through where the center was supposed to be.


This system is still so young and so weak that the center is, and probably will be, reforming until a Radius of Maximum Winds gets established. The biggest hindrance by far is the high forward speed. If you spin a top out onto the floor at really high speed, and it's not pretty well balanced as it hits the floor, it will probably tip over and fall down...
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#824 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:21 pm

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#825 Postby Vortmax1 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:21 pm

This system is still so young and so weak that the center is, and probably will be, reforming until a Radius of Maximum Winds gets established. The biggest hindrance by far is the high forward speed. If you spin a top out onto the floor at really high speed, and it's not pretty well balanced as it hits the floor, it will probably tip over and fall down...



I totally agree with you.
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#826 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:28 pm

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#827 Postby Vortmax1 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:29 pm

The vorticity is finally looking stronger at the surface....but still stronger in the mids.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#828 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:32 pm

There may be a convective burst that relocates the center by this mornings first visible satellite shots but I'm sure its a mess with possibly multiple vortices now.
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#829 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:38 pm

I don't see this getting north of 15N before it reaches 50W unless it starts a good turn soon!
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#830 Postby HurrMark » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:41 pm

I'm starting to get a feeling based on trends that this will fall just short of becoming Colin...
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#831 Postby Vortmax1 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:42 pm

I have no problem believing this Xtrap is correct right now in the short term:


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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#832 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:43 pm

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#833 Postby Hugo1989 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:49 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 45.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#834 Postby chzzdekr81 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:50 pm

HurrMark wrote:I'm starting to get a feeling based on trends that this will fall just short of becoming Colin...

Yeah, I'm getting that feeling too, but it's probably going to form.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#835 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:51 pm

Doubt TD4 has degenerated into a wave....kinda hard to tell using IR. But, it may have. I think this system, whatever form it is in will go much futher west than currently forecast due to its shallow nature......MGC
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#836 Postby chzzdekr81 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:52 pm

Hurricane chances reduced by 13% since 8PM.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#837 Postby HurrMark » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:52 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:
HurrMark wrote:I'm starting to get a feeling based on trends that this will fall just short of becoming Colin...

Yeah, I'm getting that feeling too, but it's probably going to form.


If it becomes Colin, it probably has to slow down from 23 mph forward speed before it hits that shear...
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#838 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:53 pm

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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION

#839 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:55 pm

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#840 Postby Vortmax1 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:59 pm

Intensity Guidance:


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