EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

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EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:57 pm


WHXX01 KMIA 300027
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972010) 20100730 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100730 0000 100730 1200 100731 0000 100731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 93.0W 9.5N 94.5W 9.5N 95.9W 9.3N 97.6W
BAMD 9.5N 93.0W 9.8N 94.6W 10.4N 96.1W 11.0N 97.5W
BAMM 9.5N 93.0W 10.0N 94.5W 10.6N 95.9W 11.0N 97.1W
LBAR 9.5N 93.0W 9.9N 94.6W 10.7N 96.3W 11.4N 98.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100801 0000 100802 0000 100803 0000 100804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 99.4W 9.3N 102.5W 9.4N 105.9W 9.7N 109.9W
BAMD 11.5N 98.9W 12.0N 101.8W 12.4N 105.9W 13.2N 110.9W
BAMM 11.5N 98.3W 12.0N 100.6W 12.4N 104.3W 13.1N 108.8W
LBAR 12.2N 100.4W 14.0N 105.2W 16.0N 110.2W 18.8N 114.5W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 62KTS 67KTS
DSHP 48KTS 58KTS 62KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 93.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 92.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 91.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:58 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007300025
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010073000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972010
EP, 97, 2010072900, , BEST, 0, 90N, 910W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010072906, , BEST, 0, 90N, 915W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010072912, , BEST, 0, 90N, 920W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010072918, , BEST, 0, 90N, 925W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010073000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 930W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#3 Postby Macrocane » Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:04 pm

The models have been pretty consistent developing this area, the CMC, the NOGAPS and the Euro (except todays 12z run) have been the most consistent, let's see if it becomes a tropical storm before July 31 if not this will be one of the most inactive July on this basin.
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:05 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#5 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:09 pm

Not surprised. This area has been active via guidance for a while now.
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:11 pm

It looks to be a non threat to Mexico.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 30, 2010 3:56 pm

Image

Great circulation but it seems shear is affecting it
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:09 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Safe bet that Estelle won't form in July and that the EPAC won't have a named system in July, which is extraordinary.
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#9 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:44 am

There has not been a single year in which there were 0 recorded tropical cyclones in July since the satellite era, which began in 1966. The closest was that year itself; just one short-lived tropical depression formed in July 1966 (lasted less than 24 hours).
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#10 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:56 pm

A mental season in the EPAC, we go from an insane June to an exceptionally slow July...wonder how often that happens!
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:39 pm

Image

latest
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:57 pm

933
WHXX01 KMIA 311849
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC SAT JUL 31 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972010) 20100731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100731 1800 100801 0600 100801 1800 100802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 96.6W 9.4N 98.1W 9.2N 99.8W 9.2N 101.7W
BAMD 9.5N 96.6W 9.6N 98.3W 9.6N 100.2W 9.5N 102.3W
BAMM 9.5N 96.6W 9.5N 97.8W 9.4N 99.3W 9.3N 101.0W
LBAR 9.5N 96.6W 9.6N 98.2W 9.9N 100.5W 10.2N 103.3W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 22KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100802 1800 100803 1800 100804 1800 100805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 103.8W 9.9N 108.3W 11.0N 112.2W 11.7N 115.2W
BAMD 9.5N 104.7W 9.9N 109.9W 10.7N 114.9W 11.6N 118.9W
BAMM 9.3N 103.0W 10.0N 107.5W 11.2N 112.0W 11.8N 115.7W
LBAR 10.6N 106.4W 12.1N 112.9W 13.3N 119.2W 11.6N 121.8W
SHIP 26KTS 32KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 26KTS 32KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 96.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 95.3W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 94.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:02 pm

Image

What a waste of a good circulation!!!
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:50 pm

So there goes July goes without a TC in the EPAC.
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EPAC : INVEST 97E

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:07 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008031548
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010073000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972010
EP, 97, 2010072900, , BEST, 0, 90N, 910W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010072906, , BEST, 0, 90N, 915W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010072912, , BEST, 0, 90N, 920W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010072918, , BEST, 0, 90N, 925W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010073000, , BEST, 0, 90N, 929W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
EP, 97, 2010073006, , BEST, 0, 90N, 933W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
EP, 97, 2010073012, , BEST, 0, 90N, 937W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2010073018, , BEST, 0, 92N, 941W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2010073100, , BEST, 0, 94N, 946W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2010073106, , BEST, 0, 95N, 953W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2010073112, , BEST, 0, 95N, 960W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2010073118, , BEST, 0, 95N, 966W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 107N, 995W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010080218, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1006W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1021W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010080306, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1034W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1047W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:14 am

Sandy,I merged the one you made with this one that was brought back from the archieves. :)
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:14 am

In 1966, the last storm in June died on the 24th and first after developed on the 3rd of August.

Celia died on June 29, so to match, Estelle would have to form on August 8. Anything later, then we have a new record.
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#18 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:15 am

cycloneye wrote:Sandy,I merged the one you made with this one that was brought back from the archieves. :)


I remembered this system but didn't find it in Active Storms, no problem merging them!!
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:28 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH....AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E - DISCUSSION

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:26 pm

Image

latest
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