Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Lets prepare for some squally weather as what is left of Colin moves wnw.

Yeah you're right Luis. Moreover Meteo-France has required an yellow alert for the Northern Leewards due to a risk of strong showers tstorms gusts. http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php This activity is expected to spread tonight on the Northern Leewards. Be aware safe and dry Msbee. Keep us informed as possible all the friend from the Northern Leewards including PR, BVI...
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[FireBird]

Hello my dear friends, now getting a chance to drop a line. Thanks to all of you for your thoughtful care and concern.
The scope of the flooding is still coming to light. It has been said that 75% of the island was under water as of yesterday. The PM did acknowledge that the relevant authorities did not sufficiently respond, and has announced steps to immediately address the co-ordination of response. Relief supplies are being distributed, but the images of loss and devastation are heart-rending. The cover of the Trinidad Express newspaper shows a woman fainting away at the sheer grief and exhaustion of her loss.
Surprisingly some flood-prone areas, like Central Trinidad which lies below sea level and well watered areas like my home valley, were not as affected as expected. If this had happened, I think we would have had an all-out disaster.
I am very glad to say though, that so far, there are no reports of death. So this is a relief.
As I look out to sea, the upcoming ITCZ, and active wave train are a concern. It's what I expected for this week, and could make clean-up a lengthy process. But people are always willing to give a helping hand, so I hope that folks will be able to recover soon in time for any new bad spells.
I hope that valuable lessons will be learned from our experience. Thanks again my friends. Warm regards,
Carey

[Gustywind]

Thanks for this post my friend but i was pretty amazed by all this infos! Glad that all is ok in Trinidad right now that's very good news. Let's continue to keep our fingers crossed as we're approaching the heart of this hurricane season. Hoping that God will continue to bless us in the Lesser Antilles during this entirely season even if Mother Nature is always full surprises. We will see...
Regards
Gustywind:)

[alanstover]

Best wishes there in Trinidad, hope all goes well with recovery.
We can sympathize with you here in Guatemala, as we have had an unusual amount of rain and flooding this year so far too, and we haven´t even entered the real season yet.
Keep us informed of any further developments in the islands.

alan

[Gustywind]

Best wishes there in Trinidad, hope all goes well with recovery.
We can sympathize with you here in Guatemala, as we have had an unusual amount of rain and flooding this year so far too, and we haven´t even entered the real season yet.
Keep us informed of any further developments in the islands.

alan

Ok Alan thanks and glad to see you my carib friend, we will keep you informed as usual .
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041754
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AS STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF T.S. COLIN. LOOK FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REMNANT CONVECTION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE COLIN IS NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 16N TO 25N
BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA/NANCOO

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Hey Msbee hope that all is ok in the Northern Leewards in spite of the yellow alert always maintained for today as rain and tstorms are expected to spread tonight and even tommorow. Please keep us informed my friend. Stay and dry.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED AUG 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF COLIN
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
COLIN ARE BEGINNING SO SHOW UP ON RADAR...AND WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

AS THE REMNANTS OF COLIN CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOMORROW...EXPECT A
SHIFT IN SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...STEERING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. FORECAST FOR PW REFLECTS THIS TREND...PEAKING OUT NEAR
2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AS THIS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH
A RELATIVELY "DRY" SLOW AHEAD OF THE PEAK...COMBINED WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT TOMORROW.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO SPEAK OF IN EXTENDED FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES. CONVECTION SHOULD CONCENTRATE OVR
INTERIOR WITH NO MORE THAN VCTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH SQUALLY
WEATHER...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

[msbee]

Hey Msbee hope that all is ok in the Northern Leewards in spite of the yellow alert always maintained for today as rain and tstorms are expected to spread tonight and even tommorow. Please keep us informed my friend. Stay and dry.
Gustywind

Gusty
all quiet here. I am actually wondering if we will get anything at all

Barbara

[Gustywind]

Hey Msbee hope that all is ok in the Northern Leewards in spite of the yellow alert always maintained for today as rain and tstorms are expected to spread tonight and even tommorow. Please keep us informed my friend. Stay and dry.
Gustywind

Gusty
all quiet here. I am actually wondering if we will get anything at all

Barbara

Ok glad to see that all is quiet we're blessed once again. Strictly nothing in Guadeloupe even a drop but it's hot moist and my body is sticky that's uncomfortable too. Well well, I wonder that too Msbee (if we will get something from that remnants), maybe nothing? So let's enjoy and have fun during these summer holidays before reaching the heart of the hurricane season. Things can change quickly as Mother Nature is always versatile, and full of surprises.

[cycloneye]

I was waiting to see at least the tail of ex Colin but it seems to go more north.

[Gustywind]

I was waiting to see at least the tail of ex Colin but it seems to go more north.

Yeah hopefully . Ex Colin feels that the islands don't need much more rain for the moment and let's the things like that enyoying the sun and the holidays.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

Hey Msbee don't forget to keep us informed if anything happens in the Northern Leewards even if effects should be pretty moderate (isolated squalls and some rains) given Meteo-France Guadeloupe latest forecast.

[cycloneye]

It looks like Puerto Rico wont see much from the tail of Colin.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
942 PM AST WED AUG 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...

00Z SJU UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS CONTINUE VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. GIVEN THAT PLUS SOME OFFSHORE
BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED CANNOT SEE THAT LAND AREAS ARE GOING TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TONIGHT. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF ONES
ESPECIALLY THOSE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND ON THE WEST SIDE
OF COLINS REMNANTS...AND SHOWERS CONTINUE JUST OFF THE BEACH FROM
YABUCOA TO ARROYO TOO. SO HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FORECAST
TONIGHT BUT REMOVED THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THU WHICH MAKES COASTAL TAF
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY POTENTIAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
INLAND. EXPECT VCSH/VCTS NEEDED ONLY FOR JMZ...POSSIBLY JPS AND
VIRGIN ISLAND LOCATIONS FOR THU AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TO BE QUITE ISOLATED ALSO.

[Gustywind]

Looks like toon of convection is bursting tonight on the East Atlantic. We should be on guard during the next couple of days...

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The tail of ex Colin goes away without having much of an effect. Now our attention will again be poised towards our east as there are big areas of convection to see if something forms from there.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST THU AUG 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO OUR NORTHWEST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN
LOCATED NEAR 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL INDUCE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THIS
MONTH...WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY. BY
THEN...ONLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...OVER THE INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.