Tropical Storm Erika - It's Official

[Air Force Met]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003

...ERIKA...THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD THREATEN SOUTHERN TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS IN YOUR AREA.

REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 350 MILES ...565 KM SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT OIL RIGS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
ERIKA.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1011
MB...29.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

[Air Force Met]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS FOUND A SMALL POORLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 47 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1011 MB AND A NORTHWEST WIND ABOUT 300 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE....WITH NO DATA AVAILABLE FROM BELOW. THE INFORMATION FROM
THE PLANE IN COMBINATION WITH THE WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON BOTH
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SUPPORTS UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA AT THIS TIME. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD BRING
ERIKA INLAND AS A HURRICANE.

ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THERE IS A PERSISTENT STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROVIDING
A WESTWARD STEERING TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ERIKA
SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL EITHER IN SOUTHERN TEXAS OR
NORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 26.2N 84.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 87.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 92.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 95.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 105.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[chadtm80]

WOOOO HOOOO... lol

[GulfBreezer]

She is still haulin booty at 21 MPH!! Pressure is still high but will lower soon I think. The systems that have formed so far this season seem to travel at an incredibly fast clip!

[Rainband]

After all that waiting this is what we get LOL..I thought it was gonna be a force to be reckoned with!!! Barely a Storm barely worth watching lol NEXT!!!

[stormie_skies]

WTG Erika!!!

[chadtm80]

LOL Ericka.... Welcome to storm2k

[vbhoutex]

After all that waiting this is what we get LOL..I thought it was gonna be a force to be reckoned with!!! Barely a Storm barely worth watching lol NEXT!!!

Don't bet the farm on this not turning into a force to be reckoned with!!! Remember Claudette??? She wasn't "a force to be reckoned with" either according to many, but don't try and tell those along the Central TX coast that!!

And yes I realize you are joking Jonathan!!!

On a more serious note, I treat each one of them as "a force to be reckoned with" since they are so damn FICKLE!!!!

[Guest]

And she's a woman too Vbhoutex - how fickle can she get?

[vbhoutex]

And she's a woman too Vbhoutex - how fickle can she get?

Don't tempt me Ticka!!! Don't tempt me!!! HEHEHEHE!!!

[Guest]

I'm a little concerned now, and was wondering how much a turn to the north could possibly happen with Erika? I'm right at 27.6 N :o

[Guest]

But we know she won't defy models and building ridges and high pressures. She will go where she is told to go.

[Rainband]

But we know she won't defy models and building ridges and high pressures. She will go where she is told to go.

In the tropics anything is possible I know one thing my bet is on Mexico to LA

[Guest]

Ok now if you guys lived in S. Tex you would singing a different tune

[Guest]

Redder - you need to start getting prepared. I would be singing a different tune if I was in Corpus or even Matagorda Bay. This system isn't exactly tiny.

I know you said you just moved your plants back outside - looks like you will need to put them back in....she's TS now - if she goes through that strengthening phase she might get to Hurricane cat 1.

So my advice is to prepare like you are getting a direct hit Redder.

Patricia

[Guest]

Yep I've already called my Mom & Dad over in Port Aransas and she said "not again". I currently converting our back porch into a computer room and only have black tar paper covering the studs and plywood :o So I will probably start boarding up Sat night if worse comes to worse.

[Guest]

Better board up sooner than that Redder. Its going to hit by Saturday morning. I would work on it tonight and tomorrow. This system is hauling ass so to say over 21 mph.

Best of luck.

[Colin]

Here we go baby!!!! Everyone in the path stay safe though!! :o