ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Looks quite impressive on satellite now, and surface obs suggest that the LLC is tightening. Outflow is steadily improving. I fully expect to have TS Danielle by this time tomorrow. Probably a TD tomorrow morning. Could be upgraded overnight as recon is scheduled for early morning.
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Wx_Warrior
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Wx_Warrior wrote:6-7-8 kts & some 20-25 kts...not there yet.
there are and were plenty of obs 25 to 30 kts on the south side..
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Yeah its not quite there yet but this is so clearly developing as we speak!
This looks just like Dianmu when it was developing, as I said yesterday the synoptic comprasions are quite interesting, but now its even starting to look like that system did as well with the ring of convection around the broad low.
This looks just like Dianmu when it was developing, as I said yesterday the synoptic comprasions are quite interesting, but now its even starting to look like that system did as well with the ring of convection around the broad low.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
LLC and MLC are closing the gap and again the LLC is likely tightening up under the MLC as we speak..
the Black circle is the best track position and the red circle is the MLC...
the Black circle is the best track position and the red circle is the MLC...
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The only thing I will say is I would like to see some deeper convection with this one, I'd expect only slow strengthening with this sort of presentation until it gets deeper convection over the actual center.
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Aric Dunn
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KWT wrote:The only thing I will say is I would like to see some deeper convection with this one, I'd expect only slow strengthening with this sort of presentation until it gets deeper convection over the actual center.
that wont happen till we get a well defined LLC
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TeamPlayersBlue
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This evening is going to be big for this storm.
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Yeah I agree Aric, I can't imagine this one won't develop, as I said Dianmu in the WPAC may not be a bad one to compare and that got to 55kts, which may be reasonable if this one develops quickly enough tonight.
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SunnyThoughts
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TeamPlayersBlue
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This storm sure does look like its moving North
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Renumber!!!
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942010_al052010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008102235
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 052010.ren
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942010_al052010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008102235
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 052010.ren
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Probably the illusion caused by the fact the MLC/LLC are not well stacked and plus there is only really a broad circulation, there are eddies and probably a weak dominant LLC but its still not quite there just yet, I bet it will be there tomorrow though!
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SunnyThoughts
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KWT wrote:Probably the illusion caused by the fact the MLC/LLC are not well stacked and plus there is only really a broad circulation, there are eddies and probably a weak dominant LLC but its still not quite there just yet, I bet it will be there tomorrow though!
Its about to take off over night... under that MLC is where to watch it will tighten up there and already is..
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Haha and so it becomes a depression just as I think it may take a few hours longer to get going!
it does look a little subtropical to me though...bet this wouldn't be upgraded anywhere other then the Gulf and maybe the W.Atlantic.
it does look a little subtropical to me though...bet this wouldn't be upgraded anywhere other then the Gulf and maybe the W.Atlantic.
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CrazyC83
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Re:
KWT wrote:Haha and so it becomes a depression just as I think it may take a few hours longer to get going!
it does look a little subtropical to me though...bet this wouldn't be upgraded anywhere other then the Gulf and maybe the W.Atlantic.
Agreed, if this was in the open Atlantic this would let sit for a while as 93L may have been a TD for a while (those don't go into HURDAT though). The difference here is that watches and warnings are necessary.
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