ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Well yet again its a good victory for the models that did nothing with it...

This season seems to be having some very real problems, for all the good preseason aspects, something does seem to be preventing things from getting goin apart from maybe the far west of the basin!

Annway just nothing of note out there, I'd probably end TD5 right now and just leave the door open incase...it'd never ever get upgraded in its current state, no way should it stay a TD in that state.

[tolakram]

Wow.

Where did it go?

Maybe there is something too this planetary alignment thing.

[Brent]

[xironman]

It is not dead yet, you would have to expect it to pulse down and reorganize with the upper air situation changing so drastically, seen this happen a bunch of times before with these types of systems. Now we need to see if a true tropical enhancement can happen during the next few hours around dmax. Keep you eyes on the convective cluster that was near the last position.

[KWT]

Yeah there is some convection not far off from the center but its looking just terrible...still things can change quickly.

[tailgater]

This discussion ought to be interesting.

[tailgater]

Yeah there is some convection not far off from the center but its looking just terrible...still things can change quickly.

What center no north winds have been found by recon?

[KWT]

I'd imagine Tailgator they couldn't have been far off from just ending TD5...this is a good hit for the models, fair play to them, they got the unfavourable conditions right in the end.

Then again the models do predict a somewhat better conditions close to landfall but the models really aren't impressed...

[tailgater]

Yes, of note in the discussion: 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB

[tailgater]

I think it's possible TD5 expanded and created inflow that then drew in dry air that choked itself off. I'm not sure because the Yucatan disturbance also had a loss of convection too.

Based upon some of the high temp-dew point spreads I saw in the HDOBs, I think the most likely culprit is simply the dry air that was associated with the mid level low which overtook the system mixing down into the convective updrafts, effectively "drying out" the system last evening. I suspect this may be a temporary occurrence, and that we'll see some attempt at a comeback later tonight into Wednesday.

You nailed that one.

[KWT]

Yes, of note in the discussion: 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB

That may well have swayed the NHC to keep the system alive depsite clearly struggling quite badly at the lower levels, anything that has a strong MLC like that still could quite easily close up if there is any decent convection nearby.

Lets see how this all evolves, chances of a hurricane seem to be all but gone even if conditions do improve down the line.

[xironman]

Every frame showing expanding convection as we approach dmax.

[KWT]

As you expect given we are heading towards Dmax, not very impressive still mind you but every bit of convection does help to keep it going I suppose until conditions improve again.

[tailgater]

Pressure of 1006.4 found south of Mobile,Al.

[KWT]

That is quite low tailgator, I can only imagine the gradient must be real slack for that sort of pressure reading in Mobile.

[Air Force Met]

Pressure of 1006.4 found south of Mobile,Al.

Look at their altitude...they're at 10K feet. However...I would imagine the lowest pressure is out near 27/88 given the surface obs. It will be interesting to see if any convection can get fired off out there. But one things for sure...the lowest pressure isn't where the NHC has the current position.

[xironman]

Well west of our system, but a north wind and falling pressure

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   PRES  PTDY
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec    in    in 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 0900  27.70  -88.30  175 305   50   8.0     -   1.6   4.0   29.74 -0.02 

[KWT]

That pretty much backs up what AFM is thinking...

So if that is the case, could that mean a further west track AFM?

[Air Force Met]

That pretty much backs up what AFM is thinking...

So if that is the case, could that mean a further west track AFM?

I wrote a post last night talking about it but then I went to bed. 4AM comes early.

Anyway...the basics of it were: Given how broad the low is and that the lowest pressures were in the central Gulf...there is really no telling where it will go until it gets a defined LLC...and that will depend on where the convection decides to fire off. It could be it never consolidates a center and if that is the case...it really won't matter where they "technically" place the center...because it will make landfall from W LA - AL...all at the same time...

[Nimbus]

Looks like every other broad elongated low we have seen develop in the gulf. Its possible the Southeast pole of the system could become dominant but it usually takes so long for these type systems to spin up.
Could mean extended rain for the LA AL coast though.