ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Not so much convection now but the turning is still very evident on radar.

[Pearl River]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_120m.gif

Does the new GFS have that much of a feed back problem? It's been very consistant! Wow!

[wxman57]

Not much data since 18Z yesterday. Some models were run at 6Z. I removed all the GFS ensembles run at 18Z and the BAMM/BAMD, which won't be valid for a remnant low. All models do indicate a loop back to the south and then a cold front approaches next week and picks it up. Redevelopment over the Gulf is quite unlikely, but it could produce some heavy rain across the Gulf Coast early next week.

[KWT]

Yeah, of course if it were to drift a little further back into the Gulf it'd have a real good chance given its progged to get a stronger Vort...but not sure it'll get that chance...

As you say though it could well rain quite alot in the central Gulf from that sort of track.

[Agua]

Center of the damned thing appears to be over Pearl River County, Mississippi this morning.

[shell70]

Along the Alabama coast it is just cloudy with a light wind blowing which yesterday it was calm. Reminds me of Winter without the cooler temps.

[KWT]

Looks at wxman57s post in the model thread of TD5...clearly shows beyond all doubt this one is caused by TD5 with the model tracks.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BOTH DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT CONTINUITY CHANGES OVER THE PAST
DAY SO WOULD FAVOR LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS/ECMWF SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME. OVER THE SOUTH... THE ECMWF TRENDS TO THE WRN SIDE OF
THE SPREAD WITH THE GULF COAST FEATURE THAT INCORPORATES THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME
LIKELY FEEDBACK IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN STREAM TROF LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER/WHEN THE GULF COAST FEATURE IS LIFTED NEWD.
AT THE VERY LEAST THE CANADIAN IS FAIRLY EXTREME WITH ITS TROF
AMPLIFICATION BY MID-LATE PERIOD SO THE CMC TIMING IS PROBABLY TOO
FAST. FOR MOST OF THE FCST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGREEABLE
00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS... WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR COMMON IDEAS OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS DAYS 3-4 MON-TUE AND TO
PROVIDE A COMPROMISE SOLN FOR THE WEAK LOW ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
COAST.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[JSDS]

LOL...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS MORNINGS INSTALLMENT OF WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE HAS OUR STAR SPINNING BETWEEN BILOXI AND
PASCAGOULA.

[HURAKAN]

12z - moving slowly inland

AL, 05, 2010081312, , BEST, 0, 307N, 888W, 25, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

Ok,is the NAM but it shows this at 12z run.

[KWT]

Could be some real issues with flooding once this system comes back south I feel, worth keeping this thread alive for that threat...

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know if the remnant low is ever gonna make it to central Alabama and if that is the case wouldn't it make it more likely to venture back out over the northern Gulf on its southern push?

[Dean4Storms]

I am beginning to think that this remnant is aided in development due to pressure gradient forces between it and the ridge off to the east. Could be a deal where TS force winds develop on the east side of the low due to a tightening gradient regime thus helping the system to deepen.

[chrisnnavarre]

How cools is this, I mean a tropical system developing over land. Imagine if it drifts just a tad south back over the Gulf...

[Dean4Storms]

Getting some pretty good rainfall here in Miramar Bch this morning!

[Steve]

Agreed. It's pouring again (probably 3rd time it's rained today) and the streets downtown are filling up again (4 different times yesterday seeing random street flooding). Looks like a nasty train is going to hit somebody, and there are flash flood warnings around various spots (east of Baton Rouge, NW of Mobile and up toward Natchez). Nothing worth videotaping or photo'ing, but it's awfully soggy. Looks like much of the Gulf South will be joining us in the 5-10" of rainfall (48 hour event) by the end of the day. I've been watching the doppler estimates, and I think they're fairly legit for this system.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

And the composite loop:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z GFS 72 hours already starts showing the system. Looks like we may get Danielle soon, if the GFS verifies.

[Portastorm]

Steve, send some west, will ya?!

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS 120 hours