ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Thanks for that info, Extremeweatherguy! Pretty cool stuff.

[KWT]

Beryl may not be a bad system to compare this too, though the system will head westward a little further and stay near the coast for longer then Beryl did.

Any information from the NHC recently?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Not much on the 2:05 PM TWD:

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE FAR NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 81W-95W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE SE CONUS AND FAR NRN GULF NEAR THE REMNANTS
OF T.D. FIVE THAT ARE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN ALABAMA WITH
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF
OF THE BASIN FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CENTERED JUST N OF SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N92W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
DRY AIR WRAPPED AROUND IT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS BEING
PRODUCING BESIDES A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 30 NM INLAND
OF THE WRN COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-24N. EXPECT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND
PUSH SWD ACROSS FLORIDA AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF T.D. FIVE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFT S.

[South Texas Storms]

wow after looking a some of the 12z models (cmc, nogaps, euro, gfs) all are showing at least 2 tropical cyclones forming in the next 7 days. as ivan once said..."the lid is about to come off"

[lonelymike]

Hey MsWx you're really masquerading as Brett Farve aren't ya When ya reporting to camp? Tell the world here on Storm2k Welcome!

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

Looks like EURO runs it right down the coast.

KFDM if this happens what kind of weather will we be looking at in southeast texas

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like EURO runs it right down the coast.

KFDM if this happens what kind of weather will we be looking at in southeast texas

yeah KFDM what do you mean when you say the euro runs it right down the coast?

[Dean4Storms]

KFDM I believe is talking about it moving westward just along the coast from FL Panhandle to the SE TX coast, this would give everyone copious amounts of rain and likely some wind maybe to TS strength.

[South Texas Storms]

dean do you think some of the rain will make it far enough west to make it to me in san antonio? i would love some rain cuz its been a scorcher lately.

[Dean4Storms]

dean do you think some of the rain will make it far enough west to make it to me in san antonio? i would love some rain cuz its been a scorcher lately.

I would think you would stand at least a chance of a spiraling band of precip coming southward in your direction once it got into eastern TX. Will all depend on how developed it gets and how far into TX it makes it.

[Dean4Storms]

Here's a GFS 72hr precip chart at 108hrs. Looks like you may have a shot at some rain although it looks likely less than a half inch.


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... p72108.gif

[wxman57]

Looks like EURO runs it right down the coast.

KFDM if this happens what kind of weather will we be looking at in southeast texas

I'd say maybe a bit of rain but nothing much in wind, as I don't expect it to have much of a circulation as it moves west.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah it doesnt look like much. i am hoping for maybe an inch or two out of this.

[wxgirl69]

When is thing supposed to move to the coastline and head west?

[KWT]

Looks like EURO runs it right down the coast.

KFDM if this happens what kind of weather will we be looking at in southeast texas

I'd say maybe a bit of rain but nothing much in wind, as I don't expect it to have much of a circulation as it moves west.

Hmmm depends how close to the coast it gets really, if its right on the waters edge so to speak I can see development occuring with this like we've seen before in such set-ups, esp given a still fairly potent MLC present aloft.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

QPF

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

KFDM I believe is talking about it moving westward just along the coast from FL Panhandle to the SE TX coast, this would give everyone copious amounts of rain and likely some wind maybe to TS strength.

Correct.

[South Texas Storms]

looks like the hpc thinks this will ride along the coast all the way to houston dumping copious amounts of rain. i just hope some of the rain gets to the dry portions of central texas.

[KWT]

QPF

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Alot of rain there still predicted, not quite as much as was predicted as yesterday but still more then enough to cause some real troubles...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9khfnl_conus.gif