Global model runs discussion

[Fego]

Not a huge trend but, if I'm not wrong, this is the third run that the GFS develops a CV system.


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[srainhoutx]

HPC Prelim Extened Discussion:

THE GULF COASTAL REGION SHOULD REMAIN WET THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE AND POSSIBLE INTERCATION
FROM THE MID LEVEL REMAINS OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
PERSISTENT DEVELOPING STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE. WHETHER THIS IS
REAL OR A FEEDBACK PROBLEM REMAINS TO BE SEEN. EXPECT THE LATTER
AS THIS NEW VERSION OF GFS HAS SHOWN POSSIBLE HYPERSENSITIVITY TO
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SUBTROPICAL MARINE REGIONS. THUS HAVE KEPT IN A
BROAD TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THIS REGION WITH AMBIENT
HIGH PWS.

[ronjon]

The 00Z Euro 500 mb pattern indicates stong ridging building over the central atlantic that expands with time into the western Atlantic. Haven't seen this pattern develop yet over the tropical atlantic but would be a bad pattern which would steer any CV storms in the caribbean or SE US. The Euro 8-10 day mean pattern also strongly show ridging developing over the SW Atlantic Ocean.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010081200!!/

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Stormcenter]

The problem with this is that you don't have any CV systems surviving so far..

The 00Z Euro 500 mb pattern indicates stong ridging building over the central atlantic that expands with time into the western Atlantic. Haven't seen this pattern develop yet over the tropical atlantic but would be a bad pattern which would steer any CV storms in the caribbean or SE US. The Euro 8-10 day mean pattern also strongly show ridging developing over the SW Atlantic Ocean.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010081200!!/

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Scorpion]

Lol... pretty strong hurricane here

[CourierPR]

The problem with this is that you don't have any CV systems surviving so far..

Stormcenter, Bryan Norcross has already verified this probable increase in activity on TWC. With high pressure supplanting ULLs and TUTTs a few of those CV systems will survive.


Barry

[KWT]

The ECM shows a CV system as does the 12z GFS...both models probably suggests a recurve but the pattern IMO could easily lead to a east coast threat...

I suspect we will get a Caribbean threat before too long...but no doubt these are signs of at least one or two systems coming up very soon...

[hurricaneCW]

A rather strong SAL outbreak is about to occur. Will that have a great effect on future African waves?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[HURAKAN]

A rather strong SAL outbreak is about to occur. Will that have a great effect on future African waves?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Thanks Buzz Killington!! lol , jk

Another wave, another SAL outbreak

[KWT]

Hmmm probably not to be honest, note the convection over the desert there, probably will be a short lived SAL plume and will be swept up as the next wave comes off...the wave at 15-10W will probably help to clear the way for the wave behind.

[cycloneye]

That wave at 10w is poised to move NW into the dry air.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pics of the SAL

[cycloneye]

Lets post here the long range runs after they dont show wave #1 anymore.

Here is the end of the 06z GFS run.



Here is the complete loop of this run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[OURAGAN]

track of the low, South-West, crossing the cap verde Islands

[cycloneye]

Wave behind PGI-30L is not almost there as is a weak low NE of the Leewards.

[cycloneye]

Completly different 12z run from the 00z one. This shows that long range is not the best thing to follow.

Here is the 12z 384 hour loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

The 12z sets up the wave behind WAY too far north IMO, but its still early days for such development so we will wait and see what the other models do tonight with that wave...early bet...it goes way west of what the 12z GFS thinks...

[cycloneye]

Lets see what the ensembles show.

[lonelymike]

What did the Euro depict regarding the second wave?

[KWT]

The 0z ECM only shows weak development and was WAY south of even the 06z GFS...lets see what the other long range models/ensemble suggest...