ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Well Well...

[JTD]

Things are heating up. Wow! Stunning models tonight.

Now, we wait for the Euro. If it switches west, all heck will break loose.

Also, what are the GFDL and HWRF showing? Anyone know?

[South Texas Storms]

ivan like the ukmet, the nogaps is MUCH further west in this run compared to its 12z run. 12z showed a recurve...

[summersquall]

nogaps has it missing the trough and heading west-wnw towards florida/bahamas.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

This run and an earlier comparison with Frances' track has me a bit concerned but we are still fairly far out and a lot can happen.

[Ivanhater]

Things are heating up. Wow! Stunning models tonight.

Now, we wait for the Euro. If it switches west, all heck will break loose.

Also, what are the GFDL and HWRF showing? Anyone know?

It will likely shift west of the 12z Operational. All of the 12z Ensembles were well west of the operational run. I'm more interested in the Ensembles, but will be too late to see those.

[ROCK]

another hour before the ECM....ugh....have to stay up for it.. the suspense is killing me.....

[South Texas Storms]

if the nogaps was extended past 180 hours does anyone know where it would make landfall based on the upper air pattern it shows at that time?

[Wx_Warrior]

Hate to hurt feelings, but NOGAPS is worthless to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hate to hurt feelings, but NOGAPS is worthless to me.

I think what it really is coming down to is what the trend of the models are beginning to show. That's why everyone's curious if the other models also trend westward...The NOGAPS might be worthless when it comes to narrowing down a specific landfall, but might be good at a showing a trend.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'd pick Ryan Leaf with my overall No. 1 pick instead of NOGAPS.

[South Texas Storms]

hahaha no you wouldnt wx_warrior. nogaps isnt as big as a bust as him.

[Ivanhater]

At 60, the ECMWF is at about 18N 44W, compared to 21N 44W on the 12z run.

[Ivanhater]

Euro 78 hours is 6 degrees further south than the 12z run

[Ivanhater]

ECMWF 84 hours...

0z: 19N 51W
12z: 24N 48W

[Ivanhater]

20N 52W at 102 moving WNW.

7 degrees further south of the 12z run

[WeatherEmperor]

Mike,

What strength is the Euro showing on this run?

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

I'm not sure yet. I'm getting the coordinates from those who pay for the Euro.

[Vortex]

Thats a diffference of 420 mi and certainly trending west like several others this evening.

[ROCK]

Ivan, you are my hero....

I have been patiently waiting....and you get it out before actual site updates.....nice...

[South Texas Storms]

so euro doesnt show a recurve?