ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#381 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:38 am

Well Well...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#382 Postby JTD » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:40 am

Things are heating up. Wow! Stunning models tonight.

Now, we wait for the Euro. If it switches west, all heck will break loose.

Also, what are the GFDL and HWRF showing? Anyone know?
Last edited by JTD on Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#383 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:40 am

ivan like the ukmet, the nogaps is MUCH further west in this run compared to its 12z run. 12z showed a recurve...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#384 Postby summersquall » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:42 am

South Texas Storms wrote:nogaps has it missing the trough and heading west-wnw towards florida/bahamas.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical




This run and an earlier comparison with Frances' track has me a bit concerned but we are still fairly far out and a lot can happen.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#385 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:42 am

Tropics_Dude83 wrote:Things are heating up. Wow! Stunning models tonight.

Now, we wait for the Euro. If it switches west, all heck will break loose.

Also, what are the GFDL and HWRF showing? Anyone know?


It will likely shift west of the 12z Operational. All of the 12z Ensembles were well west of the operational run. I'm more interested in the Ensembles, but will be too late to see those.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#386 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:45 am

another hour before the ECM....ugh....have to stay up for it.. the suspense is killing me..... :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#387 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:46 am

if the nogaps was extended past 180 hours does anyone know where it would make landfall based on the upper air pattern it shows at that time?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#388 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:54 am

Hate to hurt feelings, but NOGAPS is worthless to me.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#389 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:56 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Hate to hurt feelings, but NOGAPS is worthless to me.



I think what it really is coming down to is what the trend of the models are beginning to show. That's why everyone's curious if the other models also trend westward...The NOGAPS might be worthless when it comes to narrowing down a specific landfall, but might be good at a showing a trend.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#390 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:59 am

I'd pick Ryan Leaf with my overall No. 1 pick instead of NOGAPS. 8-)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#391 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:01 am

hahaha no you wouldnt wx_warrior. :lol: nogaps isnt as big as a bust as him.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#392 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:08 am

At 60, the ECMWF is at about 18N 44W, compared to 21N 44W on the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#393 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:10 am

Euro 78 hours is 6 degrees further south than the 12z run
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#394 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:13 am

ECMWF 84 hours...

0z: 19N 51W
12z: 24N 48W
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#395 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:18 am

20N 52W at 102 moving WNW.

7 degrees further south of the 12z run
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#396 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:20 am

Mike,

What strength is the Euro showing on this run?

<RICKY>
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#397 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:21 am

I'm not sure yet. I'm getting the coordinates from those who pay for the Euro.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#398 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:21 am

Thats a diffference of 420 mi and certainly trending west like several others this evening.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#399 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:22 am

Ivan, you are my hero.... :lol:

I have been patiently waiting....and you get it out before actual site updates.....nice...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#400 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:22 am

so euro doesnt show a recurve?
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