ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

bursting near the center

[cycloneye]

Strong convection over LLC.

[KWT]

Yep bursting now near the center, will probably be enough to tempt the NHC to upgrade given the 2.5 from Dvorak recently.

[Blown Away]

Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.

[Recurve]

Here it goes.

Now we can throw out all the models and start looking at a tropical cyclone getting underway in a mostly favorable environment.
I'm pretty sure at this point it is going to have a decent window to recurve well east of the US and Bahamas, although maybe not Bermuda. Just a guess though. The model runs that will mean something, I'll be real interested in the GFS when it's looking five days or less out. So waiting until about Wednesday to get a handle on next weekend's high setup. 3 days or more of watching before I can put much faith in anything.

Oy

[plasticup]

Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.

It's motion today may not be of much consequence. The current ridge will direct it for the next couple days, and if the storm forms at higher latitude then the ridge's effect will just be that much stronger. It is the shallowness of the upcoming trough that will determine whether it recurves. And that trough is pretty weak at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Cloud tops of -80C.

[Blown Away]

Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.

It's motion today may not be of much consequence. The current ridge will direct it for the next couple days, and if the storm forms at higher latitude then the ridge's effect will just be that much stronger. It is the shallowness of the upcoming trough that will determine whether it recurves. And that trough is pretty weak at the moment.

Maybe so, but that is not what the models are seeing at this point. The 18z models support the fish/recurve solution more than the 12z models.

[Brent]

Wow, check out those tops!

Danielle sooner rather than later IMO. Just need some work on the east side and this will take off IMO.

[KWT]

Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.

Thats what I've been saying the early jog to the north actually may make a difference to the eventual track, of course equally it may not if the ridge were to build in strong enough, probably a little early to know...

However yeah I can't remember many systems getting to 30-35N then bending back westwards 10-15 degrees to hit land....Bermuda would be at risk.

[cpdaman]

Cloud tops of -80C.

she's a survivor

[CrazyC83]

Starting to wrap convection all the way around. It seems to be intensifying despite the shear. But should they bump it up or wait?

[canes04]

KWT,

I don't think it will make it to 30N. I'm going with the ridge building and moving it w to wnw
5 to 8 days from now.

If you can recall there was a Hurricane back in 92 that I lived through that made it all the way west. So it can happen.

[Air Force Met]

Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.

Wobble watching will make you go blind. Its really not that far to the NE of its point. Maybe 60 miles. A track is an average...a wobble to the right...a wobble to the left. People get way to caught up in these little wobbles.

Prediction: They will re-adjust the track to the right due to the wobble...but have it going in the same direction...and then it will wobble to the left....and then there will be post upon post about how its moving to the left of the forecast track.

And yes...I understand every wobble has an impact on the future track...but at this point...every wobble is noise...that is all...

[Nimbus]

The 19:15 sat shot looks about half a degree north of the official track but more importantly there is strong convection burst right over the LLC.
Its better stacked now so maybe tonights wobble watching will give us a better indication of the current steering.

[Aric Dunn]

The 19:15 sat shot looks about half a degree north of the official track but more importantly there is strong convection burst right over the LLC.
Its better stacked now so maybe tonights wobble watching will give us a better indication of the current steering.

ummm... wabble watching wont help with anything.. .

here is your steering..

[KWT]

Sort of like the HWRF solution then canes04...I'm not going to make a call for now after probably being a little too agressive with my last recurve idea...

We will see!

I feel pretty confident the NHC will upgrade pretty soon though...

[TheDreamTraveler]

The 19:15 sat shot looks about half a degree north of the official track but more importantly there is strong convection burst right over the LLC.
Its better stacked now so maybe tonights wobble watching will give us a better indication of the current steering.

ummm... wabble watching wont help with anything.. .

here is your steering..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm2.GIF]

Thank you for posting that. I saw a lot of people were paying too much attention to all the wobbling. It's still not a very compact storm yet.

[KWT]

Yeah thanks for posting that Aric, the short term motion back to the W/WNW is quite obviously the motion in the next few days, what happens after that is rather more unclear though obviously every bit further north it does get the stronger the connection to the upper trough will be and the longer it'll stay on that northerly motion before it gets left behind.

[CrazyC83]

If that is to be believed, something like a Luis, Marilyn or Hortense seems possible...hit the NE Caribbean then a quick turn north...