ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

Loks like the circulation is on the eastern side of the convection still, though whatever was causing the shear hasn't quite gone away totally just yet.

GFS certainly is interesting though, thats a real agressive turn to the north it makes on that run.

[Buck]

Those cloud tops are crazy high!

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is trying to improve.. the upper high is trying to position over top of it.. although its a very narrow axis.

[TwisterFanatic]

Woah!

[TheDreamTraveler]

Woah!

It almost looks like an eye is trying to form. Though I really doubt that, but maybe I'm wrong?

[cycloneye]

IMO,if this presentation continues, I say 40-45 kts at 11 PM.

[KWT]

Yeah its coming down right over the top of the system there Aric, though as you say there isn't really much to work with in terms of the narrow width of the upper high.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

20 knots of easterly shear continue to affect Danielle. This shear should begin to die down as the upper level high (anticyclone) slightly to the NE of Danielle stacks vertically with the circulation. If this current organizational trend continues Danielle will likely get bumped up to a 45mph maybe 50mph tropical storm at 11p.m EDT.

And no, the circulation of Danielle is not exposed. It can clearly be seen on the loop in the link below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[Ivanhater]

In comparison

[KWT]

IMO,if this presentation continues, I say 40-45 kts at 11 PM.

They may well go upto 45kts given Dvorak goes upto 3.0, though they go down to 40kts instead but either way I do think they will up it next time round...

[abajan]

Those cloud tops are crazy high!

You ain’t seen nothing yet. Wait until DMAX tonight!

[pricetag56]

this looks like rapid intensification

[KWT]

All depends on exactly where the center of circulation is in relation to the deep convective burst, if its on the E.side then despite the strong bursting will probably only be steady strengthening but if its quite well stacked then it may well develop quite rapidly...and if it did recurving chances look just about certain again...up and down those chances go but its never been more then a 20-30% of a US risk IMO...

[Aric Dunn]

All depends on exactly where the center of circulation is in relation to the deep convective burst, if its on the E.side then despite the strong bursting will probably only be steady strengthening but if its quite well stacked then it may well develop quite rapidly...and if it did recurving chances look just about certain again...up and down those chances go but its never been more then a 20-30% of a US risk IMO...

its on the east side still being sheared

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Here's how it goes. If both TAFB and SAB give Danielle a T-number of 3.0 the NHC will likely go ahead and raise the winds to 50mph. But if SAB stays at T2.5 and and TAFB goes up to T3.0 or vice versa the NHC will probably only go up to 45mph. If they both stay at T2.5 then I assume that they will leave it at 40mph, but this has gained a lot in organization so I doubt that they will stay the same. And as a third resort we have UW-CIMSS/ADT calling this a 49kt TS with a pressure of 997.6mb.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 13:30:55 N Lon : 35:22:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -12.0C Cloud Region Temp : -39.4C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[MiamiHurricanes10]

All depends on exactly where the center of circulation is in relation to the deep convective burst, if its on the E.side then despite the strong bursting will probably only be steady strengthening but if its quite well stacked then it may well develop quite rapidly...and if it did recurving chances look just about certain again...up and down those chances go but its never been more then a 20-30% of a US risk IMO...

Right now I think that it will recurve but impact Bermuda.

[KWT]

I was thinking that but the fact the models have started to reduce the strength of the upper block again in the longer ranges as they have done all August thus far makes me think it'll probably get close not quite close enough to be thought as a hit.

Still a long way to go though I admit I once again feel a little less silly for being so quick to jump on the recurve bandwagon orginally given tonights models....but yeah lots to see yet...

[wxmann_91]

It almost looks like an eye is trying to form. Though I really doubt that, but maybe I'm wrong?

Not an eye. Not even a CDO in fact. Structure is lacking as Danielle is highly sheared.

[KWT]

Whats interesting is Dvorak estimates the center to be just on the eastern edge of the deep convection, so its only slightly unstacked and thats probably close enough to allow for it to get close to hurricane strength in the next 24hrs providing shear doesn't take a sudden leap up.

[Aric Dunn]

well according to the latest satellite and microwave images its been moving barely north of due west from the last advisory..