ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

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JTD
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#741 Postby JTD » Sun Aug 22, 2010 6:42 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:It almost looks like an eye is trying to form. Though I really doubt that, but maybe I'm wrong?


Not an eye. Not even a CDO in fact. Structure is lacking as Danielle is highly sheared.


I'm not sure that I agree in the slightest that it is "highly sheared". A highly sheared storm likely to be upgraded somewhat at 11 by the NHC.

Also, this is a storm that many global models burst to major hurricane strength and that the NHC probability has at 1/5 chance of.

Not sure that it's highly sheared at the moment and not sure that it matters at all in the long run. Or, are you arguing with the globals and thinking this will be nothing more than a strong t.s.?
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#742 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 22, 2010 6:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well according to the latest satellite and microwave images its been moving barely north of due west from the last advisory..


Just like you said to be fair!

I'm not totally convinced it lurches northwards as quick as the 18z GFS expects and I suspect this one needs to be watched very closely for Bermuda.

Someone in the chatroom mentioned Fabian and in terms of strength if this one was to get near Bermuda it certainly might not be a bad system to compare it to strength wise, though Bermuda rode that one ok.
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#743 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 22, 2010 6:51 pm

New burst of convection tonight over the LLC, might be a hurricane tomorrow if the LLC doesn't run out from under the convection again.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#744 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 22, 2010 6:59 pm

Image
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#745 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:00 pm

nice the FSU site has the EURO on it now :) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#746 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:03 pm

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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#747 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:07 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Up to 40kts.
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#748 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:09 pm

Looking good right now it has to be said, once the shear eases up a little more the convection will make a CDO pretty quickly I'd imagine from this point onwards.

Can't wait to finally see our 2nd hurricane and hopefully first major of the year!
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#749 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Up to 40kts.


even at 1003mb a westward track is fairly obvious....even at 500-850....for awhile anyway...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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#750 Postby MiamiHurricanes10 » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:12 pm

The CDO has developed, now the circulation needs to slide under it.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#751 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:16 pm

Take a look at the Ridge Building over the CONUS.


Image


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv
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#752 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:18 pm

Looking at those steering currents, it appears headed straight for the islands, then a hard northerly turn...
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Re:

#753 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:19 pm

MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:The CDO has developed, now the circulation needs to slide under it.


Yeah and if it does this one will become a hurricane in a hurry, may only take 9-12hrs given the current bursting pattern going on as we head into Dmax as well.

As for the track, it doesn't really matter at all how strong the Upper high becomes if the trough is deep enough to lift it northwards like the models are starting to agree with again then the upper high could become the strongest ever on earth and it wouldn't stop a recurve from happening....granted thats rather unlikely!
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#754 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:20 pm

Uh oh: 22/2345 UTC 13.7N 35.6W T3.0/3.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic
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#755 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:21 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#756 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:22 pm

Nevermind. I cant delete it.
Last edited by Florida1118 on Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#757 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:22 pm

Dvorak Chart: 3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb
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#758 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:23 pm

Based on the latest data, I would go up to 45 kt, maybe 50 kt if someone has a T3.5 as the ADT supports 50 kt.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#759 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:23 pm

I have a feeling the huge convective blob will disappear by tomorrow morning and the center will be exposed again. It always seems to happen in the morning, but at least this one has a strong LLC. For now it does appear to be slightly strengthening.
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Re:

#760 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looking at those steering currents, it appears headed straight for the islands, then a hard northerly turn...


the atmosphere is not static and the ridge is not solid like that. tropical systems ( all weather ) acts more like you moving your hand through a sink full of bubbles... if you push one way things move in response and things also push back. so the ridge is more like a big bubble that can be deformed.
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