ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

looks like a 3hr heading of 275 or so (280 max)

anyone agree

I suspect it maybe something of an illusion of the eye being blown over by convection. Whilst the system could be moving like that remember the center maybe slightly on the NW side of the convection and so could quite as easily be moving say 285-290...but still I agree it doesn't seem to be picking up that much latitude right now.

[Nimbus]

is the ULL supposed to be digging SW'ward? and what is that appendage to the east of ULL directly N of danielle by several hundred miles......

Danielle is forecast to chew up through the western side of that anticyclone high centered at 60w. They have the weakness further east in 4 or 5 days. There was an ULL to the north of Danielle earlier but it did not dig far enough south to effect steering. This chart should be based on actual isobar soundings but strangely that high has drifted west a couple degrees since its depiction this morning?

[KWT]

I suspect we will have a major hurricane within the next 24hrs given the current presentation, it looks real good right now in the microwave, this will be a looker pretty soon and I suspect an eye will pop in the next 6-9hrs.

[cycloneye]

Yikes!!!!

[bvigal]

that pic is amazing! this thing's only been a hurricane a couple of hours!

[Florida1118]

Bermuda will still get slapped by this even at the center of the current track...

[KWT]

Ouch that image probably suggests a system that is going to undergo RI, would surprise me to see a very good looking system when the first Vis.images come through tomorrow morning!

Looks like its at 15.5N right now as well so a touch north of where was estimated.

[Aric Dunn]

I dont post much once we have a established system... but have to say its going to look pretty soon.. nice little eye peaking out on IR now..

[KWT]

Yeah without a doubt Aric this one could well become a major hurricane pretty quickly, I know the SHIPS show a much elevated risk of RI...

[SouthFloridawx]

[KWT]

Looking like a classic CV hurricane now, I still think this will rake up a good 30-40 units for the ACE and push us above average again after a sluggish August to date.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wouldn't we want to look at the 200mb - 700mb steering flow, since the system is intensifying and is a hurricane now?

[cpdaman]

Wouldn't we want to look at the 200mb - 700mb steering flow, since the system is intensifying and is a hurricane now?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm6.GIF

hopefully not LOL....i think the intense hurricanes are still steered more from the 400-850 mb level...or at least that is what i remember hearing ...perhaps someone could correct me ....(besides reading the bottom of the cimss map)

[KWT]

Nah a strong hurricane would usually be steered from 200-700mbs if I remember correctly, though I may be wrong about that as well!!

[Recurve]

Wouldn't we want to look at the 200mb - 700mb steering flow, since the system is intensifying and is a hurricane now?

hopefully not LOL....i think the intense hurricanes are still steered more from the 400-850 mb level...or at least that is what i remember hearing ...perhaps someone could correct me ....(besides reading the bottom of the cimss map)

And of course it's a calculated mean, a representation of steering forces throughout a big slice of atmosphere averaged together -- there is no real wind blowing exactly like the arrows. Not that I'm any kind of expert, and don't know how the mean is weighted, but I know sometimes those lines and arrows can make it seem like actual steering winds, and it's not really that concrete....but pro mets slap me if I'm dissing CIMSS analysis too much.

[I Scream Cone]

I'm getting concerned that Danielle will miss the first trough, considering her persistent westerly motion. If this is so, then she could, perhaps, miss the second trough (hence the strong high pressure ridge.) I am never so trustworthy of the models because there have been some historical and major shifts....

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm getting concerned that Danielle will miss the first trough, considering her persistent westerly motion. If this is so, then she could, perhaps, miss the second trough (hence the strong high pressure ridge.) I am never so trustworthy of the models because there have been some historical and major shifts....

I'm starting to get slightly concerned again as well. I still think this will not hit the east coast, but what we have to do is watch what Danielle's currently doing. Because anything Danielle doesn't do as forecast will change the outcome of the models.

I was watching Frank Strait's vlog over at accuweather.com, and he was saying how since a few of the ensembles show it coming close to the East Coast, that we can't rule it out completely yet. He also mentioned how the models basically go berserk at that point in time.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm getting concerned that Danielle will miss the first trough, considering her persistent westerly motion. If this is so, then she could, perhaps, miss the second trough (hence the strong high pressure ridge.) I am never so trustworthy of the models because there have been some historical and major shifts....

No doubt, it is not like we have any good obs out there getting atmosphere analysis. I've said all along it won't take much of a deviation from what the models are spitting out to cause this to miss the troughs. I'm not saying it will occur, just that we must keep in mind the lack of any real time obs way out there in the middle of the Atlantic.

[Javlin]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/movie.gif

are we talking teleconnections here Mike?

[Ivanhater]

They switched it on me