ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[StormTracker]

"The Perfect Storm"! A beautiful thing of nature to watch & learn from & no harm done to anything or anyone!

Irony is ironic...I believe it was the "Perfect Storm" that killed more than a few fishermen. I know you didn't mean that though!

C'mon maan! No, that's not what I meant!

[cpdaman]

anyone have a map that shows where storms have gone within 100 miles of danielle's position.

[CrazyC83]

23/2345 UTC 15.5N 42.3W T4.0/4.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic

No change.

[wxman57]

anyone have a map that shows where storms have gone within 100 miles of danielle's position.

You can roll your own right here. Just click the Latitude/Longitude link in the left frame and follow the cues:

http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

[CrazyC83]

Given the Dvorak and the modest improvement this evening, I would move it up to 70 kt.

[cpdaman]

anyone have a map that shows where storms have gone within 100 miles of danielle's position.

You can roll your own right here. Just click the Latitude/Longitude link in the left frame and follow the cues:

http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

thx based on aug.. storms ....only three have recurved as far east as much as danielle is forecast to.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 423W, 75, 982, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Up to 75 kts.

[Riptide]

So, how about this NW turn? Not seeing it at all, except more changes during the 0z suite.

[wxman57]

But most did recurve - 13 of 19. I still don't see an East U.S. Coast threat out of Danielle. Yeah, it may come a bit closer to Bermuda, but that's about it. Models indicate ridging along the East U.S. Coast in 120 hrs with a deep trof along 60W. 1024mb high over Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. That steering level chart posted earlier is the CURRENT flow, not the 5-day forecast. It's changing.

[cpdaman]

right....but what is the mechanism for this to turn NW imminently like forecast.

[Riptide]

But most did recurve - 13 of 19. I still don't see an East U.S. Coast threat out of Danielle. Yeah, it may come a bit closer to Bermuda, but that's about it. Models indicate ridging along the East U.S. Coast in 120 hrs with a deep trof along 60W. 1024mb high over Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. That steering level chart posted earlier is the CURRENT flow, not the 5-day forecast. It's changing.

I agree entirely with you but the solution we are seeing now from the global models will not be the finale outcome, you can bank on that. The average distance error at this range is like 300-500 miles at day 7 anyways.

[wxman57]

right....but what is the mechanism for this to turn NW imminently like forecast.

18Z GFS moves it toward 281 deg (west) for the next 12 hrs and 287 deg for the next 24 hrs. Other models are forecasting a similar WNW motion the next 24 hours with a NW turn occurring by 36 hrs.

[wxman57]

But most did recurve - 13 of 19. I still don't see an East U.S. Coast threat out of Danielle. Yeah, it may come a bit closer to Bermuda, but that's about it. Models indicate ridging along the East U.S. Coast in 120 hrs with a deep trof along 60W. 1024mb high over Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. That steering level chart posted earlier is the CURRENT flow, not the 5-day forecast. It's changing.

I agree entirely with you but the solution we are seeing now from the global models will not be the finale outcome, you can bank on that. The average distance error at this range is like 300-500 miles at day 7 anyways.

Just remember much of that typical 66.7% error is along track - more than cross-track. A building ridge over the Mid Atlantic U.S. Coast and a deepening trof NE of Newfoundland by late this weekend should keep Danielle well away from eastern North America.

[cpdaman]

thank you kindly Mr. 57

that seems very reasonable

the ULL is dropping SW....is that what is creating more of a weakness to turn this NW by 24 hours plus

[Riptide]

right....but what is the mechanism for this to turn NW imminently like forecast.

18Z GFS moves it toward 281 deg (west) for the next 12 hrs and 287 deg for the next 24 hrs. Other models are forecasting a similar WNW motion the next 24 hours with a NW turn occurring by 36 hrs.

Interesting because the 18z GFS has trended SW with the TC track. If this is the case, why is it that the NHC track shows a turn between WNW and NW at this very momment? Things are not going as expected IMO.

[GCANE]

Core temp has developed very nicely during the day today.

Radius is relatively smaller than normal.

IMHO it appears to be ideally positioned in the troposphere to allow continued intensification.

A high-rain rate cell on the SE eye-wall, as shown at 2148Z, will help to continue to heat the core.

[amawea]

Bermuda is going to get it, jmho. I'm not forecasting just stating an opinion.

[cpdaman]

wobble just S of due West.......at least that is what my eyes show me in the last frame....but def...not WNW lol

[MGC]

Just wondering how much longer till an eye is visable on the IR or visable.....the hurricane looks to be intensifying at a pretty good clip all day. That ULL to its north is providing some excellent ventilation which should enhance the hurricanes ability to intensify. I think Danielle has an excellent shot at becoming a major tomorrow or Wednesday. Bermuda need to watch this one......MGC

[Riptide]

wobble just S of due West.......at least that is what my eyes show me in the last frame....but def...not WNW lol

It might be an illusion caused by the convection but as you already stated. It is definately not moving WNW.