ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

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[WxGuy1]

This thing will bottom out 125 to 140kt imo.

That sounds a bit high, and is higher than what the MPI is for that storm in the 24-72 hr time frame. Of course, storms don't always "behave" by the environmental MPI, but it's quite rare for a storm to meet the MPI, much less exceed it (again, it does happen, but not often by any means). The Eastern GoM is primed and ready to go right now, though...

[SouthFloridawx]

Definitely not on course with the track this evening... I've seen it before though. You think it's not going on course, but then in the long term... it does in fact do what the NHC and the Models think it's going to do. We'll see if this westward movement is a wobble or if it's a trend. They are much more easily tracked when they have an eye...

[TheDreamTraveler]

Definitely not on course with the track this evening... I've seen it before though. You think it's not going on course, but then in the long term... it does in fact do what the NHC and the Models think it's going to do. We'll see if this westward movement is a wobble or if it's a trend. They are much more easily tracked when they have an eye...

I've been looking at the microwave loops of the eye of Danielle, and it really does continue on a Westward route right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

ERC so soon?

She really is a nice looking system.

[Fego]

At 0415 UTC the eye is "gone", I mean, covered... I guess.

[ROCK]

latest steering....3UTC

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

looks west for now....should be picking up a little bit of forward speed also I would think.....

[cycloneye]

At 0415 UTC the eye is "gone", I mean, covered... I guess.

Eye is there at 04:45 UTC.

[cheezyWXguy]

ERC so soon?

hahaha what? We havent even seen the whole eye yet. Its still developing, give it time and youll see it soon.

[Fego]

I don't see it moving due west, I mean 270... may be 280 .

[SouthFloridawx]

The eye is definitely not visible on IR. Though it could be the cloud temps, though they do seem to be warming. I got a feeling we're seeing a ERC.

[Fego]

At 0415 UTC the eye is "gone", I mean, covered... I guess.

Eye is there at 04:45 UTC.

Do you think Danielle is already near 16 North?

[cycloneye]

At 0415 UTC the eye is "gone", I mean, covered... I guess.

Eye is there at 04:45 UTC.

Do you think Danielle is already near 16 North?

Has not reached 16N yet.

[Brent]

AL, 06, 2010082406, , BEST, 0, 157N, 440W, 85, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 10, 25, 1008, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANIELLE, D,

85 kt... 100 mph Cat 2 at 5am.

[ROCK]

even at 973MB your still currently looking wnw steering in place...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

probably miss the next forecast point but well within the cone....just sayin...

[Crostorm]

[WeatherGuesser]

Cat 2 is official

[cpdaman]

i think the TUTT/ULL Is starting to exhibit some anti strengthening effects on the system ....i.e dryer air moving closer to the circulation's moisture envelope as well as it looks like it could be slowing which propably means it will be turning more WNW/NW soon?

i think today may feature a slower moving and slowly weakening storm from it's current cat 2 status.

u can see more hostile air invading the west central atlantic and this ULL/TUTT feature really sinking SW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

[jconsor]

I will go on record as forecasting that Danielle will track at least a little SW of 30N 60W. The threat of a direct strike on Bermuda is still low, but the chances of at least tropical storm force winds impacting the island have increased significantly given the current fast westerly motion and ensemble trends. 2 of 20 GFS ensemble members now track Danielle within 50 miles north of Bermuda, and 2 others have her tracking about 150 miles south of Bermuda on a W or NW track.

Keep in mind that Danielle is already a relatively large system, and will grow larger as it interacts with the upper trough to its north and recurves. The ECMWF indicates TS force winds extending out about 150 miles to its west and 225 miles to its east when Danielle is at the latitude of Bermuda (around 32.5N).

I'm not confident Danielle will reach even cat 3 status in the next 24 hours given the dry air intrusion. The best chance for it to intensify significantly (possibly to cat 4) is likely on Wednesday, when divergence increases significantly and the shear vector shifts from westerly to SSW.

[KWT]

Yeah this one looks quite ragged right now, may well weaken a touch during the next 6-12hrs again if it doesn't improve the current presentation.

Anyway Bermuda is getting mighty close to the cone right now!