Caribbean - Central America Weather

[kungfut]

hey everyone!! New user here from St. John USVI. Im out on the farthest point on the east end of st. John.
Im on the water and worried about this storm, earl and the ones behind it.
Anyone have any thoughts on a forecast for the St. John, USVI and BVI. I am very close to roadtown tortola, peter island and norman island.

What are anyones current thoughts on the possibility of this hitting me???

[Gustywind]

I keep hearing Earl is going to curve WNW. I keep seeing West.
Despite the general forecast for the past few days of Earl being further north than it currently is and for the current track to still change from due West to WNW and so avoid the Northern Leewards, it's current path is due west (270 and steady now) or possibly lower to come and that takes Earl into the middle of the Leewards and impacts, in terms of the "cone", on the Northern Windwards, maybe Barbados first. Do tell me that is not possible (because that's what I'm hoping) but my message to other members in the region is better be safe than sorry. I've left some of my planning too late - thinking Fiona or Gaston was the more likely threat. I hope we all miss Earl but we've have spent the two days before it reaches this far west preparing for it and at the least being ready for the one that doesn't recurve! Good luck Islanders and especially my friends in Antigua, and the French Islands. Anway, if it wasn't for Storm2k and StormCarib, I'd be sitting in some degree of blissful ignorance - until the storm wakes me up, but it's time to pull away from the computer and prepare!

nice post. Don't worry this caribbean community will provide you all the niciest infos from Earl and the hurricane activity. Carib members on this thread are really charming and kind .
Glad to see that you are prepared in case of as many of the islanders here. Earl track continues to pose a possible threat for the islands all the Leewards, even as you said the Northern Windwards. One thing to do be aware and your guard. Let's see wait and see what could really happen with Earl.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

hey everyone!! New user here from St. John USVI. Im out on the farthest point on the east end of st. John.
Im on the water and worried about this storm, earl and the ones behind it.
Anyone have any thoughts on a forecast for the St. John, USVI and BVI. I am very close to roadtown tortola, peter island and norman island.

What are anyones current thoughts on the possibility of this hitting me???

Hi glad to see you, be welcomed on storm2K . We will appreciate any infos that you can provide us . Concerning the forecast Earl should pass at 200 km in the north of the Leewards, but we never know. Stay tuned and read all the weather forecasts posted by our members in this thread and concerning Earl viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109110&hilit=
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

KNHC 272335
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 46.9W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

hey everyone!! New user here from St. John USVI. Im out on the farthest point on the east end of st. John.
Im on the water and worried about this storm, earl and the ones behind it.
Anyone have any thoughts on a forecast for the St. John, USVI and BVI. I am very close to roadtown tortola, peter island and norman island.

What are anyones current thoughts on the possibility of this hitting me???

Welcome to storm2k and enjoy all the forums. For ST John,is still early to say for sure what kind of impact Earl may have. But stay tuned for the advisories and more information that will be available in this thread and at the Earl thread at Active Storms forum.

[HurricaneQueen]

Wow, that is getting a little too close for comfort to the Leewards. This is normally the time of year we are in St. Maarten but did not make it this year. Hoping and praying that Earl makes a quick right turn and spares the islands. Thinking about you all down there and following closely.

Lynn

[msbee]

hey everyone!! New user here from St. John USVI. Im out on the farthest point on the east end of st. John.
Im on the water and worried about this storm, earl and the ones behind it.
Anyone have any thoughts on a forecast for the St. John, USVI and BVI. I am very close to roadtown tortola, peter island and norman island.

What are anyones current thoughts on the possibility of this hitting me???

Hi welcome to the forum.
At this point we are all waiting and watching. keep checking here for updates.

Barbara

[msbee]

Wow, that is getting a little too close for comfort to the Leewards. This is normally the time of year we are in St. Maarten but did not make it this year. Hoping and praying that Earl makes a quick right turn and spares the islands. Thinking about you all down there and following closely.

Lynn

Hi Lynn
a right hand turn would be wonderful!

Barbara

[Gustywind]

Wow, that is getting a little too close for comfort to the Leewards. This is normally the time of year we are in St. Maarten but did not make it this year. Hoping and praying that Earl makes a quick right turn and spares the islands. Thinking about you all down there and following closely.

Lynn

Thanks Lynn we appreciate sincerely this thought! We continue to monitor seriously Earl.
Gustywind

[FireBird]

Earl is sure giving us islanders some jitters. He looks as if he's a comet making a nose dive for the region. Hey Earl, nobody down here did you anything bro. Pick up your stuff and head out to sea buddy.......
Wishing for the best everyone, but know that we'll all prepare for the worst.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280250
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL CONTINUES WESTWARD...A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 47.9W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE ISLANDS TOMORROW.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280255
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LOCATED NEAR OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 45 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CLOUD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE THAT SOME
DRIER AIR IS LURKING NEAR THE CYCLONE. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL BE A BIT BELOW MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER...EARL WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE 29C PLUS SSTS IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. THE
GFDL/GFDN RESPOND TO THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING EARL TO BECOME
A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THE LONG-RANGE. WHILE THE NEW NHC
FORECAST WILL NOT BE THAT AGGRESSIVE...IT IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE LGEM MODEL.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGESTS THE CENTER REMAINS A BIT
ELONGATED...THUS CONFIDENCE IN MY INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18 IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE. A STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE EARL
WILL COME. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND MOVES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAN MOST OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED FASTER TOWARDS THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS...THEN IS JUST
LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE END.

RESIDENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EARL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 16.0N 47.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.2N 50.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 16.6N 54.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 17.3N 56.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 18.1N 59.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 20.5N 63.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 24.5N 66.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 68.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL CONTINUES QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 48.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1560 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EARL COULD
APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280846
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 50.1W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS
...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

EARL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 C AND A
LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER BUT
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A 0413 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EARL
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. USING
A COMBINATION OF THIS OVERPASS AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 270/18. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL ON A RATHER
QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO NEAR A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS OF THE
TIMING...LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TRENDS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARL MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS AND
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NOW
BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND
POSSIBLY INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.7N 50.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.2N 58.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 18.2N 60.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 20.8N 64.2W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 67.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 69.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Monitoring Tropical Storm Earl becoming a possible threat for the Northern Leewards Islands...
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE DANIELLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE
MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS...SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM EARL NOW LOCATED SOME 875
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATTELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WERE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGAN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

AT 500 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AS
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ FROM 28/17 THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A NE SWELL ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE DANNIELLE WITH A
PERIOD OF AROUND 12 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PASSAGES THOUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. EASTERLY SWELLS...
FRONT RUNNERS FROM EARL...WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS EARL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. MARINERS
SHOULD MONITOR THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CREATING
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 70 40 40 40
STT 90 80 91 82 / 40 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

71/10

[cycloneye]

Good morning folks. I think preparations have to be made for those who live in the islands that are in the TS Watch zone because Earl continues to move west and is becoming stronger. Lets see what happens in the next 24 hours with the track and strengh.

[Gustywind]

Good morning folks. I think preparations have to be made for those who live in the islands that are in the TS Watch zone because Earl continues to move west and is becoming stronger. Lets see what happens in the next 24 hours with the track and strengh.

Thanks Luis. I wonder if Guadeloupe and even Dominica could not be later today in a TS Watch??? Looks like Earl is swinging between 15 and 16N and very quickly. Crucials 6 to 12 hours but this TS continues to organize steadily.

[Gustywind]

From a caribbean of St Croix http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stcroix.shtml
- Re: EARL'S TRACK
By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2010 23:13:47 -0500

Midnight Greetings!

The track of EARL is "uncertain at this time" . Some weather bloggers have been noticing a move southwestish. I notice a lot of Saharan dust in the vicinity. EARL does not like dust. He is trying to dodge it by moving downwards and definitely on a westward path. There is a good chance that EARL is going to impact one or more land masses. I think he's upset about DANIELLE. He might just decide to stay somewhere and wait for FIONA who should get her act together at any moment. There's is a chance that those two could join forces and have a "common center". Has that ever happened before? When? Let me hear from someone out there.

Those who care are watching, with an intense passion, as EARL does his thing in the middle of the Atlantic; they are visualizing a dramatic approach to the Northern Leewards islands. In a couple of days we shall find out. Perhaps a more certain track can be established. In the meanwhile, get things ready just in case. EARL is gearing to strengthen and will be doing so before it reaches our neighborhood. Perhaps we'll wake up in the morning to find out that EARL "high-tailed" it and went after DANIELLE. Hang in there and keep watching! God bless us all.

Isabel