ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Dangerous Hurricane Earl continues always west and on the verge of entering the Leewards islands

Where is that turn expected since 3 days?! Hope once again that this turn wnw or NW even N will come immediately
Oh boy worrying situation now for the Leewards and especially the Northern Leewards . And this thing continue to grow very nicely!

[emeraldislencguy]

great shot
a storm gettiing stronger with each hour

[gatorcane]

I'm surprised nobody is talking about how the CMC has made a big shift left and has it hitting the SE Bahamas now before it finally makes the turn.....

Could there be watches and warnings put up for the SE Bahamas in the coming days?

[Ptarmigan]

Even a Category 1 hurricane going over NYC would likely do billions in damage and a high death toll.

That would lead to complacency because they think a Category 1 won't be seen as a threat.

[jinftl]

If you look at the forecast for earl this morning made 48 hours ago, the actual position this morning was 100 miles off of that forecast point. The NHC publishes their average error stats by # hours out, and the 2005-2009 season average forecast error 48 hours out was....you guessed it....96 miles!

I think sometimes it is how forecast tracks (and everyone's favorite 'cones of uncertainty') are still misinterpreted that leads the public to think the nhc 'blew the forecast'. The reality is the current forecast track still falls within the forecast track cone going back to late on Thursday.

Totally understandable, in this day and age, we expect absolute answers. The idea of 'cone of uncertainty' and 'higher or lower probability' doesn't fit in with our desire to be able to unequivocally go into panic mode or sound the all clear days in advance.



TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

Forecast for Sunday at 29/1200Z (Sunday, 8am)
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT


Actual location at 29/1200Z (Sunday, 8am)
LOCATION 29/1200Z...17.1N 57.6W 60KT

No westward shift? On Thursday the NHC forecast Earl to be near 17.8 54.0 today....actual 17.2 58.4. A westward error of 4.4 degrees or about 270 nautical miles. 7mb in 3 hours??? RI?....MGC

[Hurricane Andrew]

Even a Category 1 hurricane going over NYC would likely do billions in damage and a high death toll.

That would lead to complacency because they think a Category 1 won't be seen as a threat.

Remember what "non threatining cat 1 catrina" Did to South Florida?

[emeraldislencguy]

i agree if there is a trend to the west a hurricane watch may have to be issued for the bahamas
the weather channel is now playing uo the wnw movement at the 2 advisory

[lester]

Moving WNW now per the advisory..slowing down too

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

[EyELeSs1]

NHC went with 17.4n 58.9w as the initial position... seems a bit north based on recon no?

also kept 75mph for this one

[Aric Dunn]

I'm surprised nobody is talking about how the CMC has made a big shift left and has it hitting the SE Bahamas now before it finally makes the turn.....

Could there be watches and warnings put up for the SE Bahamas in the coming days?

we were just a few pages ago..


also for those say the point of recurve has not shifted.. look at this..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

Still not enough to miss the islands..

[Stephanie]

I'm surprised nobody is talking about how the CMC has made a big shift left and has it hitting the SE Bahamas now before it finally makes the turn.....

Could there be watches and warnings put up for the SE Bahamas in the coming days?

we were just a few pages ago..


also for those say the point of recurve has not shifted.. look at this..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

That graphic says it all.

HOPEFULLY, the wnw movement is a good sign, but will it be fast enough?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

That's not too late, let's see if this trend continues let's hope that all the Leewards will appreciate this little wnw movement...

[jinftl]

From 11am to 2pm, Earl gained much less longitude than he has been doing...suggesting a slower forward speed (as other posters have mentioned, slowing down is the first indication a change in heading is about to take place), but gained as much, if not more, latitude than he has during any other 3-hour period recently.

Of course this could be a wobble and not an earnest turn to a more wnw heading....let's see where he is at 5pm before we call it a trend.

11am 17.2N 58.4W
2pm 17.4N 58.9W

Dare I say it....Earl appears to be behaving as forecast....both in terms of movement and intensity:

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT
EARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

[Aric Dunn]

once it gets into PR radar range we can track the motion very accurately which will be nice..

[Nimbus]

Earl is spinning up now and is forecast to intensify to a cat 3 north of PR.
I wasn't much worried since the track has been consistently forecast to stay north of the islands.
There will be some big surf at the very least for Puerto Rico. I remember we had one hurricane years ago that came right up within 50 miles of south Florida before it finally recurved.
Are there any model scenarios that leave Earl trapped under a ridge near the east coast of the US?

[Evil Jeremy]

Even though the official movement has changed from W to WNW, its only a difference of 5 degrees (officially), not that much. Still headed towards the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

ill keep making the radar loops for the rest of the day ... the center is just coming into VIEW... should be able to track its movement on here until it reaches PR radar range.. although PR radar has not updated since yesterday.. lol..