Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ086-292130-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N E OF 65W...

.THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...N OF 16N E OF 65W N TO NE WINDS 15
KT INCREASE TO 25 TONIGHT. SEAS 4 FT BUILD TO 8 FT TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE E OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS
AND SQUALLS N OF 13N E OF 67W.
.MON...N OF 16N E OF 65W TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH WINDS TO
40 KT. SEAS BUILD TO 14 FT. S OF 16N E OF 65W S TO SW 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT. W OF 65W NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS
BUILD TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS IN BANDS
E OF 70W.
.MON NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
EXPECTED N OF 17N E OF 65W. ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 67W WINDS TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA E OF 70W N TO NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS IN BANDS NE PART.
.TUE...E OF 70W S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3 FT
EXCEPT TO 8 FT IN N SWELL THROUGH EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES. W OF
70W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.WED AND THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...
EXCEPT TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL THROUGH EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES.

[bvigal]

... a pause to post this 11am markup. I'm not sure if it is best here, in the "reports from" thread or the Earl discussion, but think I'm too distracted right now to keep up with 3 different threads, and, I think those who need it most likely to see it here!

Also at 11am: *** This advisory has Hurricane Earl at Category 3 status Monday night 8pmLT (00z), 100kt gusting to 120kt, when it will be the following distances in nautical miles: Anegada BVI 53, Virgin Gorda BVI 70, Tortola BVI 71, St. Thomas 80, San Juan 113

[msbee]

thanks
we're all a little distracted now.
getting a little scary now

[bvigal]

Stay safe, Barbara! Try to stay in touch, and I will do the same. I wonder if MJ is watching?

Had planned to stay here and change the bucket under my leaky skylight, but now looks like Earl could be strong enough they shut off power. So maybe see about staying with a friend. (and packing out the fridge contents, ugh)

(Edit) And same "be safe" goes to you, Luis, and Gusty, HUC, knotimpaired, and all the other neighbors here in the islands!!

thanks BVIgal
and stay safe yourself. we'll keep updating as long as we can.
MJ is indeed watching. She sent me an email yesterday

to all our neighbors, be ever vigilant and be prepared!

Barbara

Won't try to sugar-coat the facts, it does look like you and Anguilla and our Anegada will get the closest pass, if track holds. Hope you got the boat secured and everything else close to done then can open a bottle of wine or something similar... Ha, I knew MJ was with us in spirit, she's been through this before!

Just completed arrangements to go stay at a "Ft. Knox" house 1000+ft up on the north side, with a whole-house generator, thus flushing toilets, fans, and hopefully internet-if the phone lines don't get water in them! Got to pack away quite a bit inside the house here, since I won't be here to do if something breaks, like the skylight.

[msbee]

glad you are going to be in a "safe" house
we are prepared. boat is out of the water.
we are on a hilll so wont worry about flooding although my house does leak.
we have a full house generator too
and lots of food, water and booze stocked up.
I hope my internet stays up for awhile too.
we are gonna get a hard hit me thinks
be safe!

[msbee]

someone from St. Maarten has just set up a new live camera

http://www.sxminteractive.com/index.php ... ive-camera

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[expat2carib]

Just talked with my wife on Dominica. Gusty winds and the sea started playing rough. It's still 11 hours away from the nearest approach.

I'm on St. Lucia on a boat. Here it's hazy and no winds as of now.

Stay safe everybody!

[expat2carib]

Power gone on Dominica Thunder and lightning.

[Gustywind]

Power gone on Dominica Thunder and lightning.

Oh boy!!! I'm facing the assaults of these strong tstorms here in Guadeloupe! We're maybe close to lose power in my location. Be safe all hoping for the best as Earl continues to improve seriously!

[Gustywind]

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... nica.shtml

- First Clap of Thunder
By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 15:27:30 -0400

We are experiencing a lot of dark clouds and rain coming from the west. At the moment it is very dark. I know, here in Dominica we are -supposedly - in the outer bounds of Hurricane Earl but earlier dices with Nature's fury has conditioned us into thinking treat ever thing as Cat 5, so the shutters are in place.

I had to go and walk an acre of interesting land this morning, a little unprepared, and got absolutely soaked to the skin within seconds.

The train from Afrrique rolleth!

Hide in a safe place.....thunder now.....!

[msbee]

Please please be safe everyone

I just came in from being around the island.
many places still open. people boarding up all over the place though.
lots of people still on the road. curfew at midnight tonight.
the wind over the Anguilla channel is high and the sea was rough.
quieter over by me near Philipsburg on the south eastern side of the island.
just a little breezy
cloudy and dark clouds around but no rain yet

[cycloneye]

Select your island to see how far the eye passes your location.
From San Juan as of the 5 PM advisory around 130 miles

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

[msbee]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 47.8 miles (77.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 21.1 hours (Monday, August 30 at 2:06PM AST).

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall for last 18 hours ( to 8pm)
for Sunday August 29, 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 35.6C 96F 5.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 32.7C 91F

Point Salines, Grenada 31.7C 89F
Bridgetown, Barbados 32.2C 90F

Hewannora, St Lucia 31.3C 88F
Vigie, St Lucia 30.9C 87F

Canefield, Dominica 31.4C 88F 2.0mm ( til 2pm)
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.9C 89F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.6C 85F 119.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.8C 87F 25.1mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.7C 89F 3.3mm
West End, Anguilla 32.3C 90F
Juliana Airport, St Maarten 32.7C 91F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F 1.8mm

Kingston, Jamaica 34.0C 93F 1.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.1C 92F 29.0mm
Owen Roberts, Cayman Islands 32.5C 91F
Havana, Cuba 33.7C 93F

Nassau, Bahamas 34.4C 94F 10.0 mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 28.4C 83F 0.3mm

-justin-

[bvigal]

I'm ready to backup my computer (and pack the bag and food), and shutting off the internet and antivirus while I do.

Well, my neighbors to the east, you will be in my thoughts and prayers tonight! Looks like all the way down to Dominica, Earl is making himself a pest. We who live in the Caribbean know just how densely that tropical cyclone rain can fall, cause flooding, mud and rockslides, etc. and how much stronger those wind gusts are when the squall is part of a tropical system. Stay safe!

[bvigal]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 47.8 miles (77.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 21.1 hours (Monday, August 30 at 2:06PM AST).

Barbara, if you look at the radar loop, it sure looks like the eye will reach you before 2pm, unless it slows down a lot.

[Patti]

I was thinking that too. On Stormcarib the government has said 8am? http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml wonder which one to believe?

[cycloneye]

Patti, it all depends on how fast or not Earl is moving that the eye passes more early or later in the day.

[Macrocane]

Guadeloupe has had 119 mm of rain, that could be very dangerous, my best wishes are with all the affected islands tonight. I remember the nights of Agatha, the night of November 8 last year and the nights of Stan and how hard it was to sleep with the noise of the heavy rains but I wish you could sleep as good and safe as possible.