ATL: EARL - Models

[CrazyC83]

Now that right there is solid consensus.

[Evil Jeremy]

Pretty much all the models trended west this run, so much so that the NHC forecast line on days 3-4 is further East than all of the SFWMD page models.

[CJPILOT]

Very tight grouping indeed.

Despite the negative words from the naysayers, the professionals have done a very good job with the tracks thus far.

It will be interesting to see what happens at 96-120 hours were track will be far less certain.

[terrapintransit]

Definitely a westward trend occurring imo

[Riptide]

Definitely a westward trend occurring imo


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

The only feature we need now to solidfy it is a deeper trough or we will be dealing with a very sharp recurve. Nonetheless, it is an interesting trend in the ensembles and models. I could see this hooking right at 35N if it ends up at 75W at some point, depending on how the timing works out.

[HurrMark]

Models are further west...bringing it slightly closer to NC...but it shows a sharper shunt out to sea, which means Cape Cod won't get much out of this according to this run.

[invest man]

Does anyone think that the nhc will adjust their track closer towards the ec @11 pm or will they hold course? And if anyone has a clue to what the models are seeing causing this change it would be great! I also looked at the east us wv loop and that looks kind of odd to me. Help!!! IM

[Danny MD]

I too would like to know the answer to that question. I live in the Washington DC area, and am thinking another isabel for us may be in the cards with this one..

[Stephanie]

I too would like to know the answer to that question. I live in the Washington DC area, and am thinking another isabel for us may be in the cards with this one..

I started to think about Isabel as well, though she was forecasted as a direct hit, coming almost NW into VA/MD. Scary one as well - I think went to a Cat 5 with eerie inner circulations.

The further west Earl goes, the more concerned we need to be, IMHO. If the front is strong that is forecasted to come out of the Great Lakes, it may very well sweep Earl out to sea before we see anything, but it could be close. We just need to stay tuned. Anything is possible 4 to 5 days out.

[Danny MD]

Thanks! I'm sure if Maryland got anything you would feel similiar effects up in Jersey so we best both keep an eye out!

[Stephanie]

Thanks! I'm sure if Maryland got anything you would feel similiar effects up in Jersey so we best both keep an eye out!

Absolutely!

Our beaches were raked this past fall and winter. Some replenishment occurred, but not much. That's what I'm afraid of.

[Evil Jeremy]

42 hours out, and the new GFS is further west than the 18z, showing a stronger ridge.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

78H

[BigA]

This GFS run is going to be a near run thing for the Outer Banks.

[Riptide]

This GFS run is going to be a near run thing for the Outer Banks.

It seems like the GFS is following the ensembles. If they come in farther west on the 0z, we have some serious issues to contend with especially if the euro agrees. Perhaps a possible landfalling hurricane in southeastern New England.
102

[boca]

According to the latest run Earl looks like a Gloria type track hitting the Eastern edge of Long Island.

[Weatherfreak000]

Unbelievable. I really cannot imagine if that verified.

[BigA]

Definitely not a fun run for Cape Hatteras and points north. Tropical storm conditions all along the mid Atlantic coast, with likely hurricane force winds, at least in gusts, in Nantucket and Cape Cod.

[Riptide]

Unbelievable. I really cannot imagine if that verified.

To be quite honest about it, there really isn't much time remaining for things to change drastically. These trends aren't what you want to see 2-4 days out.

I'm not sure how I am going to react if the ECM agrees with the GFS. It is not a pretty picture when you combine the intensity progs with the track featured on the GFS, crazy stuff.