ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[GTStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

looks like the cavalry is on its way to pick up Earl.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks for the response but here in south florida we were told not to worry about Jeanne as well and when I woke up the next morning it was time to hurry up and getting ready for a hurricane. This has given me just reason to not have 100% faith in the projected paths of the storms until they have made the "forcasted" turns. Otherwise I have nothing to base my decisions on. At this point I have a CAT 3 hurricane pointing right at me and currently moving straight towards me. The track has shifted west every time. I think you are being very brave by saying "florida doesnt have to worry" .

Not sure who told you not to worry...or if maybe you were not paying attention...but the landfall area was in the cone on Wednesday.

The 5AM advisory on Thursday the 23rd had Jeanne headed towards the eventual landfall location. The 11AM advisory had it making landfall just 11 miles north of where it eventually went in.

The hurricane watch was issued on Friday morning.

If you woke up and had to hurry for a hurricane....you either were getting info from someone OTHER than the NHC...or you weren't paying attention. If you had received your info from the NHC and have been watching it...you would have known you were in the cone of error at 5Pm on Wed...you would have seen landfall projected over or near you on Thursday morning...

Given it didn't make landfall until Sat. evening...you had plenty of time.

And...I don't think I am being brave. I've been doing this for 23 years (almost 24)...and I know that you cannot compare one storm to another unless the patterns and the storms are similar. In this case...they are not.

[GCANE]

Looks like core-temp is jumping to 4C now.

[Canelaw99]

With the storms current movement and intenisty and I dont understand why floridians are not slightly concerned. Jeanne taught me a lesson about looking and trusting forcast tracks. I dont believe anything until the turn has started and the storm has started heading away from us.

I pay attention until it's well north of me, for that very reason....

[wxman57]

The last 3 hours of recon fixes yields about 295 degrees. Pretty big difference there. (From 1222z to 1556z)

Though on satellite, it does look to jump substantially to the northwest in the last hour.

Here's a little graphic I made back in 2008 to demonstrate why you cannot just connect the dots between recon fixes to get a direction of motion. The recon fixes may not be exactly in the center of the eye:

[Javlin]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

looks like the cavalry is on its way to pick up Earl.

Definitly looking NW looks the turn may of begun shall be good for PR and HIS and no worry to FL.

[GCANE]

Looks like a well shaped 340K PV streamer has formed at 28N 60W.

That should really get the poleward outflow channel going.

[msbee]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

looks like the cavalry is on its way to pick up Earl.

Definitly looking NW looks the turn may of begun shall be good for PR and HIS and no worry to FL.

well, that's not helping us
we're getting slammed here

[TheBurn]

[Gustywind]

Lets hope that NW trend continues and the eyewall remains offshore.

Has Cycloneye posted lately? I guess that feederband knocked out power like he though...MGC

Not surprised after all! When you have dealt with a feederband of Earl even if it were a cat 1 (remember yesterday afternoon when Guadeloupe faced with a strong one)you know that there's higher chances to have suddent poweroutages and nasty ! You can believe me, i can tell you honestly that this little boy is very very powerfull! Hope that Luis ok in PR. Stay safe and dry.
Gustywind

[tolakram]

GOES EAST doing a higher speed scan. Looking at the loop you can see Earl pulling away now. Hopefully conditions will improve soon!

30 Frame Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[Stephanie]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

Thank you FOX13, but "always" is a very strong word. I lived in NOLA during Katrina and we were on the west side of the storm.

The original point is still valid. The damage from wind was much worse on the eastern side of Katrina. N.O. got just cat one winds on the west side. Of course that's nothing to sneeze at and certainly that's all it took for the levees to be overtopped.

Also, considering we are not used to Cat 1 type winds up here, the west side will still be bad for us. Yes, Hampton Roads, Long Island and Cape Cod are much more exposed for an east side hit.

[HURAKAN]

boom boom pow

[blazess556]

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/9735/277y.jpg

boom boom pow

recons gonna find sub 950 next pass.

Edited by CM to take out [img] tags

[supercane]

Last image from St Maarten radar:

Note that the web page apparently only updates the image loop once an hour sometime after the hour.

[HurrMark]

Definitely looks like more of a NW movement. It seems to be clearing 19N before it hits 64W...the 12 hour forecast (at 0Z) calls for it to be at 19.5N/65.1W, so unless it quickly goes back to a more westward motion, it will go north of that position...good news at least in the short run.

[ravyrn]

we're getting slammed here

Are the electric lines ran underground on St. Maarten? I'm really amazed you still have power!

[Stephanie]

Take care msbee and Luis!!!

[Just Joshing You]

Honestly, any pro mets here chime in on NHC's projected 5 day cone? Im visiting in NS now and have travel plans that if have to be changed, should be considered in the next day or two.

[AdamFirst]

Southern eyewall passing over Anegada (northernmost of the BVIs)

Eye on radar really looks like it's heading west again. Could be another wobble.