ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[SootyTern]

From Crown weather this morning:

[quote]Some final thoughts, the key to the forecast track of Earl is where and when exactly it will turn north and then northeast. The sharper the turn, the less impact on coastal North Carolina and coastal New England. If Earl makes a shallower turn, then the impacts to the coast will be greater. Today, I will be watching to see how close Earl gets to 30 North Latitude, 75 West Longitude. If Earl passes north of this area, then the turn is likely to be sharper and the impacts on the coast will be less. However, if Earl tracks either over or to the south of 30 North, 75 West, then it will be likely that Earl will make a shallower turn and it would in fact become more likely that the hurricane would track over the outer banks of North Carolina and then right over Cape Cod and eastern Maine.

For those of you in eastern North Carolina (especially the outer banks) and southeast Virginia today is the day to prepare for hurricane conditions. If your home is vulnerable to high winds or if you live in a storm surge area, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends outside of evacuation zones. Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. If you need to make a trip to the hardware store, the grocery store or the gas station, do so this morning. [quote]

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

[lovestorms84]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[pimentel2]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/augustnonactive/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

Mmm...looks a bit less impressive....well, its at least a major hurricane.


Here's the threat level on the East Coast (Source: TWC)



Tropical Storm Advisories:



Hurricane Advisories:

[HugoCameandLeft]

Local mets seem to think that the only impact on Charleston will be very hot weather on Friday after it passes by... is it highly unlikely at this point that CHS will feel any affects at all, aside from surf/currents/etc? Hope so.

[TheBurn]

The race is on...
-

[brunota2003]

From Crown weather this morning:

Some final thoughts, the key to the forecast track of Earl is where and when exactly it will turn north and then northeast. The sharper the turn, the less impact on coastal North Carolina and coastal New England. If Earl makes a shallower turn, then the impacts to the coast will be greater. Today, I will be watching to see how close Earl gets to 30 North Latitude, 75 West Longitude. If Earl passes north of this area, then the turn is likely to be sharper and the impacts on the coast will be less. However, if Earl tracks either over or to the south of 30 North, 75 West, then it will be likely that Earl will make a shallower turn and it would in fact become more likely that the hurricane would track over the outer banks of North Carolina and then right over Cape Cod and eastern Maine.

For those of you in eastern North Carolina (especially the outer banks) and southeast Virginia today is the day to prepare for hurricane conditions. If your home is vulnerable to high winds or if you live in a storm surge area, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends outside of evacuation zones. Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. If you need to make a trip to the hardware store, the grocery store or the gas station, do so this morning.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

If that is the case, it looks like Earl will cross 75W well south of 30N...unless his track changes to NNW here very soon. He is already at (just eyeballing this), 72.3W, and only 25.5N.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really happy that this dangerous storm is missing the coast.

Edit: or the worst of it is

[Riptide]

Really happy that this dangerous storm is missing the coast.

It is to early to call that right now. Don't become complacent.

[MGC]

Beautiful day along the mid Atlantic...typical of the day before a big hurricane. No need for the eye to cross the beach in NC...get into the western eyewall will be enough to spread hurricane force winds along the coast. Upward along the coast expect TS force winds, rain and large waves along the coast....too early to tell how close the cyclone will come to Cape Cod and you folks up in the Canadian Maritime had better start preparing for a hurricane......MGC

[Category 5]

I will be hitting the Jersey Shore on Friday unless it gets close enough to kick up a storm surge. Pictures will be taken and posted.

[SunnyThoughts]

[Category 5]

Can only imagine the waves in the Bahamas today

[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like an Edna (1954) track in the making:

[JtSmarts]

Looks like an Edna (1954) track in the making:

JB's been mentioning that on his twitter site. He supposedly goes into more detail on his Pro Site.

[gboudx]

Can only imagine the waves in the Bahamas today

Webcam
http://www.rockybay.com/

[RevDodd]

If that is the case, it looks like Earl will cross 75W well south of 30N...unless his track changes to NNW here very soon. He is already at (just eyeballing this), 72.3W, and only 25.5N.

Agreed, Brunota: IIRC, the official track forecast slides Earl inside 30-75. If you figure he's at 72.5-25.5 now, to reach 75-30, Earl would have to climb 4.5 over 2.5 ... or north-northwest ... immediately.

[Time_Zone]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/augustnonactive/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

Mmm...looks a bit less impressive....well, its at least a major hurricane.


Here's the threat level on the East Coast (Source: TWC)



Tropical Storm Advisories:



Hurricane Advisories:

...? It's looking better right now then it has in the past day or so

[hurricaneCW]

If that is the case, it looks like Earl will cross 75W well south of 30N...unless his track changes to NNW here very soon. He is already at (just eyeballing this), 72.3W, and only 25.5N.

Agreed, Brunota: IIRC, the official track forecast slides Earl inside 30-75. If you figure he's at 72.5-25.5 now, to reach 75-30, Earl would have to climb 4.5 over 2.5 ... or north-northwest ... immediately.

Well the NHC track barely takes it west of 75W. Only around 75.2. I guess they really expect it to turn more to the NNW soon.

[anarchiver19]

If that is the case, it looks like Earl will cross 75W well south of 30N...unless his track changes to NNW here very soon. He is already at (just eyeballing this), 72.3W, and only 25.5N.

Agreed, Brunota: IIRC, the official track forecast slides Earl inside 30-75. If you figure he's at 72.5-25.5 now, to reach 75-30, Earl would have to climb 4.5 over 2.5 ... or north-northwest ... immediately.

Well the NHC track barely takes it west of 75W. Only around 75.2. I guess they really expect it to turn more to the NNW soon.

Sorry if I sound completely dense, can you explain a little more what this means?

[SunnyThoughts]

For those who may not be following the recon thread concerning Earl.


138 kts flt level; 101 kts sfmr