ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[KWT]

Earl starting to look very good again now, structure has improved quite a lot in the last 6hrs, really wouldn't shock me to see this upto category-4 again...

[blazess556]

138 knots flight level winds. dang

[TheBurn]

That's a pretty impressive front for September 1st
It's going to be a close race to see who gets there first...
-

[Brent]

138 knots flight level winds. dang

Higher than it was when they called it a 4.

[SunnyThoughts]

Lookin beastly for sure

[RevDodd]

Sorry if I sound completely dense, can you explain a little more what this means?

Sure: The big question is whether Earl gets inside 75 degrees west (roughly the longitude of Cape Hatteras) before the trough arrives to push him north and northeast. The quicker he gets inside 75, the more of the NC coast he'll affect ... and further up the coast.

If Earl holds his current track and speed (which at last report was just north of northwest), he'd cross the 75-degree benchmark well below 30 degrees latitude ... more like at 28.5. In that case, assuming the same speed of the trough, he'd be closer to 76 degrees west ... a good 50-plus miles closer before the trough arrived. In that case, landfall would be closer to Morehead City in NC, and his trip up the coast would involve a lot more people....and damage.

Obviously that's all supposition, because the NHC expects Earl to turn well before then....we shall see. I hope I explained that right!

[RL3AO]

UZNT13 KNHC 011606
XXAA 51167 99255 70726 08052 99965 25607 34583 00814 ///// /////
92374 22801 00608 85112 20004 03615 70775 12026 06599 88999 77999
31313 09608 81534

NW eyewall dropsonde.

83kt at surface from 99kt at flight level (700mb)

If you keep that proportion from 138kt, you get 115kt at surface.

[Dave]

[quote="TheBurn"]That's a pretty impressive front for September 1st
It's going to be a close race to see who gets there first...
-
In SE Indiana looking out my window to the west and can see the leading edge of the front (clouds) now...35 miles due west of Cincinnati Ohio.

[blazess556]

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
953mb (Surface) 80° (from the E) 99 knots (114 mph)
951mb 80° (from the E) 102 knots (117 mph)
946mb 90° (from the E) 129 knots (148 mph)
942mb 95° (from the E) 135 knots (155 mph)
936mb 95° (from the E) 133 knots (153 mph)
914mb 105° (from the ESE) 139 knots (160 mph)
907mb 105° (from the ESE) 137 knots (158 mph)
896mb 105° (from the ESE) 144 knots (166 mph)
888mb 110° (from the ESE) 138 knots (159 mph)
872mb 110° (from the ESE) 147 knots (169 mph)
863mb 120° (from the ESE) 141 knots (162 mph)
856mb 120° (from the ESE) 132 knots (152 mph)
850mb 125° (from the SE) 132 knots (152 mph)
706mb 140° (from the SE) 138 knots (159 mph)
697mb 140° (from the SE) 127 knots (146 mph)

NE eyewall dropsonde.

Cat 4 anyone?

[RL3AO]

NE eyewall dropsonde.

Cat 4 anyone?

Not really suggesting that the winds are making it to the surface that well.

[TropicalWXMA]

850
WTNT32 KNHC 011744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

[KWT]

Nah still a category 3 at the moment based on that dropsonde but the presentation looks good...I suspect the dry air that was about is somewhat limiting how well this system is bringing down the top winds.

[Brent]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

[capepoint]

To heck with Earl...I understand from friends that Jim Cantore and Sam Champion are in my county. Should I be worried?? lol

[anarchiver19]

Sorry if I sound completely dense, can you explain a little more what this means?

Sure: The big question is whether Earl gets inside 75 degrees west (roughly the longitude of Cape Hatteras) before the trough arrives to push him north and northeast. The quicker he gets inside 75, the more of the NC coast he'll affect ... and further up the coast.

If Earl holds his current track and speed (which at last report was just north of northwest), he'd cross the 75-degree benchmark well below 30 degrees latitude ... more like at 28.5. In that case, assuming the same speed of the trough, he'd be closer to 76 degrees west ... a good 50-plus miles closer before the trough arrived. In that case, landfall would be closer to Morehead City in NC, and his trip up the coast would involve a lot more people....and damage.

Obviously that's all supposition, because the NHC expects Earl to turn well before then....we shall see. I hope I explained that right!

Thank you for that explanation! I appreciate it and it makes sense to me

[Raebie]

If Cantore's there, you should be just fine.

[HurrMark]

This definitely looks a lot better than 24 hours ago, when it was called a cat 4. I would think it would have a very good chance of being reclassified as such.

[yzerfan]

Cantore as hurricane deflection device isn't so much of a sure thing as it was a couple years back.

However, if Geraldo Rivera shows up, that's a clear sign to get out of Dodge.

[UpTheCreek]

This definitely looks a lot better than 24 hours ago, when it was called a cat 4. I would think it would have a very good chance of being reclassified as such.

Still a ways from the gulf stream........that's bound to give him some help!

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

[mf_dolphin]

With the ERC completed overnight/this morning Earl is gradually getting back together. The eye has gone from "ragged" this morning to nice and circular and cleared now. It may take a bit for the winds to get back to the surface but it looks like that process is well on the way.