ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TheBurn]

[tracyswfla]

appearing in the radar

from that radar it looks like it is moving West...... NOT a forecast, speculation from am amateur!

[pimentel2]

Looks like not as sharp of a turn either due to the slower arrival of the cold front. I think it puts Mass in much more danger of a close scrape.

Yeah, now we'll have to wait and see where in the cone Earl turns up in.....

[weunice]

I just want to point out that Cat 1 winds are not a walk in the park. The company I currently work for lost their roof and we had to move in the week following Gustav. I was in the Baton Rouge area which had gusts in the 90 range and a few small tornadoes that caused some significant damage in the area. I want to say that the sustained winds were not even quite hurricane force where I was yet there I went to work with no roof the next day. I suspect our damage was tornado related. A flurry of businesses along a small line received roof damage similar to ours (like gone). Trees were through houses all over the place and the cleanup efforts were monumental.

Cat-1 is still a hurricane and it is not going to be fun for anyone in it.

[BrianD]

Possibly but what you're seeing on that radar is the outer bands circling around earl and they are going to look like they are movingg west due to the counter clockwise motion.

[rosethornil]

I've always been geographically challenged, but this looks more west than north to me. However, is this one of those "jogs" y'all keep talking about?

http://www.wavy.com/subindex/weather/live_radar

[BrianD]

Wow 80 members and 320 guests keeping the lookout ! notice the boards slowing a little probably due to server load.

On Topic:
Do believe southeastern Va needs to be rdy for some nasty stuff so don't think we're outta the park this can be absolutely devastating

[bob rulz]

Is it just me or has it completely re-built that very strong ring of convection?

This thing will likely still be a cat 4 at closest approach to the Outer Banks at this rate.

[BrianD]

I've always been geographically challenged, but this looks more west than north to me. However, is this one of those "jogs" y'all keep talking about?

http://www.wavy.com/subindex/weather/live_radar

WOBBLE Watch Time! Gonna be an interesting next 24 hours

[BrianD]

Is it just me or has it completely re-built that very strong ring of convection?

This thing will likely still be a cat 4 at closest approach to the Outer Banks at this rate.

Thinking so I was worried last night when he dropped to the 920's mb press. Was worried he hit cat 5 glad he isn't still that low

[WmE]

It really does well fighting off the dry air.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Wobble watching -> 1000 posts of "NNW", "NO NW", "NO N"

But let's be honest, anxious times ahead.

[Raebie]

He never hit cat 5.

[BrianD]

He never hit cat 5.

I said I was worried he hit cat 5.

[Raebie]

Sorry, misread your post.

[Meso]

Definitely appears to have the ring of convection back. It was only about a 1-2 hour period where the western part of the convection looked as though it was a goner... But since then it's become more symmetrical compared to earlier and continued to establish its convection around the eyewall.

[luvcanescarol]

Amateur questions: What kind of damage would we see if Earl does come in as a Cat 3 into the Outer Banks? If Earl goes more West than predicted, and makes a hard landfall in NC, would it change the projected path?

[rockyman]

The eye is just scraping 75W, and the northern eyewall is thinning out again:

[BrianD]

as of 8am 932mb anyone chime in if recon's found anything newer

[Javlin]

Talk about a tilt on that cold front I think a negative tilt at this point might of been better.It looks like it's giving Earl room to keep going W some.If he makes 75.5>76 watch out OB

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html