ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Zarniwoop]

The question I have is why does he WANT to head north?

What's driving that?

Is he like a bit wheel and friction is just moving the wheel along?

[Evil Jeremy]

The question I have is why does he WANT to head north?

What's driving that?

Is he like a bit wheel and friction is just moving the wheel along?

Earl is following the path of least pressure resistance, which is north. The weakness is partially caused by Danielle, and the low pressure front approaching the EC will turn Earl NE.

Its like a hallway. You have walls on your left and right, so you just need to follow the path set out for you.

[RevDodd]

The question I have is why does he WANT to head north?

What's driving that?

Is he like a bit wheel and friction is just moving the wheel along?

The pros could offer much more detailed reasoning, but basically storms in the northern hemisphere want to pull to the north. It has to do with the conservation of energy. But since I liked fifth-grade math so much I took it twice, I'll politely defer any specifics.

That's why CV storms are so likely to recurve. they move, almost under protest, from east to west under high pressure ridges. When there's a break, or weakness, boom! They take it and run.

[CrazyC83]

Dry air seems to be trying to get in, but flight-level winds still support Cat 4.

[CJPILOT]

It looks like the western eyewall is touching 75 west.

and it looks like it is hugging the 75 line, just like the forecast says it will...hope it continues.

[OuterBanker]

Afternoon. Almost through with preps. I'm sure someone has posted this, but just in case.
Evac ordered for all of Dare County (most of the OBX) for all visitors.
Same is true for Currituck county (duck, corolla etc) this am.
Quickly becoming a ghost town. Just about as many media vehicles as regular vehicles in parking lots.

Glad for the north turn, with any luck a east component will arrive early.

[SunnyThoughts]

Be safe outerbanker, hope everything works out well for you and yours.

[CJPILOT]

The question I have is why does he WANT to head north?

What's driving that?

Is he like a bit wheel and friction is just moving the wheel along?

In tropical latitudes, nearer the equator, prevailing wind patterns push storms toward the west, because of a high-pressure axis called the subtropical ridge, which extends east-west of the storms. Closer to the equator, general easterly winds prevail.

The wind pattern is driven partly by the Bermuda High, a high-pressure ridge that expands and contracts across the Atlantic during the summer months and is surrounded by a clockwise circulation. Many tropical storms will skirt around the Bermuda High, enhancing the pattern of moving west, then north. The exact path of a storm can depend greatly on how far north or south the Bermuda High is at that time. And since the high is a weak system (oftentimes due to a trough in the jet stream), tropical hurricanes can recurve back toward the east.

[Recurve]

Radar from Wilmington:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[brunota2003]

I have a question. First off, it is cloudy here and feeder bands are starting to push ashore in the Crystal Coast areas. But my question is, looking at the sat image of Earl, he looks a lot like Isabel...he does not have the look of a north (or northeast) bound hurricane...he looks more like a hurricane either heading NW/NNW or getting ready to change to that heading.

Does anyone else see that?

[Zarniwoop]

Not really.

To me he appears to be heading directly north or a tiny tiny bit e as well.

[wxman57]

I have a question. First off, it is cloudy here and feeder bands are starting to push ashore in the Crystal Coast areas. But my question is, looking at the sat image of Earl, he looks a lot like Isabel...he does not have the look of a north (or northeast) bound hurricane...he looks more like a hurricane either heading NW/NNW or getting ready to change to that heading.

Does anyone else see that?

I don't know what a hurricane that's about to turn NW-NNW looks like, but I don't think that's about to happen.

[CJPILOT]

I have a question. First off, it is cloudy here and feeder bands are starting to push ashore in the Crystal Coast areas. But my question is, looking at the sat image of Earl, he looks a lot like Isabel...he does not have the look of a north (or northeast) bound hurricane...he looks more like a hurricane either heading NW/NNW or getting ready to change to that heading.

Does anyone else see that?

Really not sure how a hurricane "looks like it is going to change direction...

Thus far, Earl is on the predicted path. He may wobble a bit (which could be bad for the folks in NC), but it does look like he will go north as the experts have been saying.

[sicktght311]

Hello all,.

New user to the board, but been a lurker for quite some time.

Located on LI, heading to atlantic city for a bachelor party on friday afternoon tho (great timing right). Plus the house we rented is 5 feet from the inlet there, so it is definitely prone to tidal surge.

So anyway, is it just me, or is anyone else still seeing a slight NW trend on the 6 hour satellite animation? I see the general northward wobbles, but i still see an overall NW trend

[Recurve]

If you look at satellite image loops, notice the outflow -- the thin clouds far to the northwest of the center -- starting to get a somewhat flattened look. They are being impacted by the generally southwest to northeast flowing winds in front of the approaching trough. The flattening of a storm's envelope shows shear or steering winds. There's almost no chance of the storm moving northwest against the flow that will come with the front.

check this loop and you can see the top edge of clouds starting to get flattened by winds blowing from west to east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-rb.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ncfarmer]

nc weatherwizard I agree with your statement on SE VA but to advise ANYONE on the NC coast to just stay inside and you "imagine" they will be fine seems very irresponsible. If Emergency Management asks you to evacuate then by all means please do so. Please listen to the advice of the NHC and your local Emergency Management offices. In natural disaters like this it is very hard for rescuers to get to you if something were to go wrong. Everyone PLEASE be safe in this storm.

In only, say, 12 more hours it will be safer to stay indoors than to venture out and drive anywhere. With the storm now very close, residents can assess what they need to do based on prior experience--of which virtually all OBX residents have plenty. I'm not discouraging evacuation in the next the hours, but if a homeowner in Currituck County feels it's not necessary to leave, they will be fine indoors.

Fair enough. If you are not under an evacuation order then please stay home, stay inside and follow your local Emergency Management office directions. I can remember being in the eyewalls of both hurricane Fran and Floyd and that was scary enough. But then having to go out and perform rescue calls on people that had been asked to evacuate 12 to 24 hrs prior only made matters worse and put the rescuers lives in danger as well as those being rescued. I can only imagine the horror of a rescuer getting called out 12 hrs from now to a cardiac arrest or other type of life hazard situation on the OBX. By not heeding an evacuation order it just makes matters worse for everyone involved. This does not just apply to the OBX either. It applies to anyone in the path of this very dangerous storm. It only takes one loss of life for this event to become a tradgedy. Everyone please stay safe.

[CJPILOT]

Hello all,.

New user to the board, but been a lurker for quite some time.

Located on LI, heading to atlantic city for a bachelor party on friday afternoon tho (great timing right). Plus the house we rented is 5 feet from the inlet there, so it is definitely prone to tidal surge.

So anyway, is it just me, or is anyone else still seeing a slight NW trend on the 6 hour satellite animation? I see the general northward wobbles, but i still see an overall NW trend

There was a slight W component but the mvoement has been mainly to the north. Pull up the floater and look at the AVN view, select Trop Pts and L/L. Earl moved right up to the 75W line and appears to be hugging it, although we can't completely sure with the eye getting ragged (possible EWRC underway), in the last two frames.

You are however correct to have concern, even minor deviations to the west at this point will dramatically affect on what happens to NC.

[HurrMark]

I am pretty confident it is at its maximum longitude...or just at it. Good news for NC, since it will very likely stay on the west side of the storm. It might potentially be good news for MA, although it is too early to tell...an infinitesmal deviation (maybe 1 degree of motion) will bring the system over Nantucket...a bit more and it will be over the Cape.

I personally am giving the NHC an A+ on this storm so far...unless it does something wacky, it should be easily within 50 miles of its forecast from 2 days ago. Accuracy like this even ten years ago would have been unheard of (unless it was a really good guess). It is a clear example of the impacts of technology to society.

[sicktght311]

I do see the slight northward movement, but i also feel that the shrinking of the eye in the last few frames is decieving and making it look more northward than it is. It started out east of the line, but now seems to be on top of it, if not slightly west if you look at the center of circulation not just the eye location. Maybe i'm just seeing things and thinking doomsday haha

Hello all,.

New user to the board, but been a lurker for quite some time.

Located on LI, heading to atlantic city for a bachelor party on friday afternoon tho (great timing right). Plus the house we rented is 5 feet from the inlet there, so it is definitely prone to tidal surge.

So anyway, is it just me, or is anyone else still seeing a slight NW trend on the 6 hour satellite animation? I see the general northward wobbles, but i still see an overall NW trend

There was a slight W component but the mvoement has been mainly to the north. Pull up the floater and look at the AVN view, select Trop Pts and L/L. Earl moved right up to the 75W line and appears to be hugging it, although we can't completely sure with the eye getting ragged (possible EWRC underway), in the last two frames.

You are however correct to have concern, even minor deviations to the west at this point will dramatically affect on what happens to NC.

[CJPILOT]

I personally am giving the NHC an A+ on this storm so far...unless it does something wacky, it should be easily within 50 miles of its forecast from 2 days ago. Accuracy like this even ten years ago would have been unheard of (unless it was a really good guess). It is a clear example of the impacts of technology to society.

Agree completely, they have done a great job given the factors in play. It will be intersting afterwards to grade the entire track.