ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TCmet]

Of course, that's assuming that the heading doesn't change, which it probably will before then. Let's hope so or there won't be much left of the Outer Banks.

Or, the rest of the East Coast, for that matter......

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

I'm using GARP satellite display to measure Earl's heading. I plotted satellite shots from 1715Z, 1415Z and 1115Z. When I place my cursor dead center in the eye at 1115Z then move it to the 1715Z image and do the same, I get a reading of 340 degrees at 18 kts. For the 3hr movement, I'm getting 335-336 degrees for the heading. This heading would put the center on the coast of NC near Beaufort in about 9-10 hrs (late this evening).

Of course, that's assuming that the heading doesn't change, which it probably will before then. Let's hope so or there won't be much left of the Outer Banks.

I was watching some live OBX webcams and there are people just walking around on the beaches having a great time. I really hope the heading changes like wxman57 said or they will be in for one helluva ride! Be safe everyone! Use your brains and listen to the warnings! This one is giving me a bad feeling...

[wxman57]

Just in the last hour or two, I'm measuring more of a due north movement. Can't tell yet if it's just a wobble or a more northerly motion has begun.

[xironman]

He has given a couple of head fakes before, but I think your right, this could be the real deal

[shah8]

Heh, now even the weathermen are wobble-watching! Going by recons and the date the data was entered, it's still west of north to some degree. Of course when the NNE bend happens, it could take away any of the extra west there might have been. I'm glad I don't have nervous habits like biting nails.

[HurrMark]

Just in the last hour or two, I'm measuring more of a due north movement. Can't tell yet if it's just a wobble or a more northerly motion has begun.

I am seeing it too...I even see a litte easterly wobble in the last frame. It probably means the westerly jog is over...possibly permanently...unless it has one more quickly trick up its sleeve.

[Zarniwoop]

Where can I see the radar track of it updating constantly (like the one you all are referencing)?

[HurrMark]

Where can I see the radar track of it updating constantly (like the one you all are referencing)?

I am using satellite...a good one is http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html/. Choose Animation, number of frames, and click on the hurricane on the map.

[dixiebreeze]

We have a daughter in Jacksonville, N.C. Hope she left early, haven't heard from her.

[reinstorm1974]

I came out of lurking to say that first and foremost, everyone along the coast is in my thoughts and prayers..this sure is a nailbiter! I have vacationed in Emerald Isle for 33 years and I am just praying there is an Emerald Isle left to go back to...I have a sinking feeling about this one. I am in southeastern Ohio and that cold front isn't due to move through here until tomorrow...I guess this is the front you've all been talking about? I am approx. 583 miles from Emerald Isle.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN REGION OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST TODAY. THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF...AND ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK END.

[HurrMark]

In case you were wondering, Hurricane Emily in 1993 maxed out at 75.2W...we will probably see something similar to that.

[tolakram]

Where can I see the radar track of it updating constantly (like the one you all are referencing)?

I pay for weather underground, which lets me see and save live radar loops during the day. I think you can see these at the NWS sites as well.

[kpost]

We are now located in Ohio, and the front everyone is talking about has been hanging all day, we were suppose to get storms from it by 2 pm today (major weather watcher husband is a roofer) and it is still sunny and hot, according to radar here it is just entering the western edge of the state (been there about 4-5 hrs it normally only takes about 2-3 hrs for a front to get from Indiana to the Cleveland area). I sure hope this thing hurries up and sweeps Earl away from the coast. For those that know lots more then I do....what can cause a front to just stall, normally we only get stalls after the Ohio valley area or prior to Indiana?

[micktooth]

Long range radar looks due North maybe even slightly East of North??? BTW, nice cold front through here in Colorado. Temps only in the low 60s!

[ncweatherwizard]

Track the mid to upper level trough, not the surface cold front.

[weunice]

I cause cold fronts to stall and since I live in South Louisiana at this point there is your problem. All fall we hear promises of relief from the heat only to see fronts stall mere miles north and west of us sometimes for days at a time.

[hiflyer]

Where can I see the radar track of it updating constantly (like the one you all are referencing)?

I use the program grlevel3 from this site: http://www.grlevelx.com/

Last 3 hrs about a 356/357 heading with the eye about 75.07

[chargurl]

"We have a daughter in Jacksonville, N.C. Hope she left early, haven't heard from her."


According to NHC....Jacksonville NC, has a 72% chance of experiencing TS winds. Forcast calls for 20-40mph winds with gusts up to 50. 50% rain chance through today.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the immediate landfall/peak threat area - as of 4 pm EDT:

North Carolina
Cape Hatteras - Overcast, 80/78, NE 13 G 22
Elizabeth City - Overcast, 82/73, E 16
Greenville - Mostly cloudy, 84/70, NE 10 G 21
Jacksonville - Overcast, 82/73, N 16 G 22
Manteo - Overcast, 81/81, NE 13 G 24
New Bern - Overcast, 81/73, N 13 G 21
Washington - Overcast, 82/72, NE 15
Wilmington - Mostly cloudy, 84/72, N 13

South Carolina
Charleston - A few clouds, 86/69, N 14
Myrtle Beach - Clear, 84/69, N 15 G 20

Virginia
Norfolk - Overcast, 81/70, ENE 10

Highest winds found so far: Cedar Island, NC - NE 26 G 35

[WilmingtonSandbar]

"We have a daughter in Jacksonville, N.C. Hope she left early, haven't heard from her."


According to NHC....Jacksonville NC, has a 72% chance of experiencing TS winds. Forcast calls for 20-40mph winds with gusts up to 50. 50% rain chance through today.

Yeah, with Jacksonville being about 40 minutes NE of us here in Wilmington, they are going to get fairly the same weather we are. Nothing this area can't handle. I would be highly surprised if anyone was talking about evacuating that area.