Caribbean - Central America Weather

[bvigal]

Yes, I'm fine, but tired. Thanks, Barbara, MJ, and Lynn!

Still not home. I could almost do without electricity, but can't do without running water (toilet flushing) and the cistern access is down steep hill in bottom apartment, under their living room couch. When I went to see it yesterday, they weren't home yet, either, and their cells have been off (probably not charged). Where I'm at I haven't had good access to the computer, and twice our internet went out. So have been catching up on sleep. Yesterday it took me a while to drive over to see my place, 1100 ft up and exposed from NNE to WSW, had to be about 75-85kts, almost all the trees went down. Roof did hold, thank God, I was very worried about that. Amazing to see the sun shining on the previously shady lanes and road covered in green thick as a carpet. A friend had the roof go off her apartment and 5 other units and the tennants, all Guyanese, were told by landlady they could fix it themselves, which they did yesterday. But everything she owns is wet: clothes, tv, etc. Nobody was injured by Earl, thankfully, and perhaps this will wake up many in BVI to the fact that a direct hit could be life-threatening. There are some good pics online at http://www.bvimusic.com

[cycloneye]

Yes, I'm fine, but tired. Thanks, Barbara, MJ, and Lynn!

Still not home. I could almost do without electricity, but can't do without running water (toilet flushing) and the cistern access is down steep hill in bottom apartment, under their living room couch. When I went to see it yesterday, they weren't home yet, either, and their cells have been off (probably not charged). Where I'm at I haven't had good access to the computer, and twice our internet went out. So have been catching up on sleep. Yesterday it took me a while to drive over to see my place, 1100 ft up and exposed from NNE to WSW, had to be about 75-85kts, almost all the trees went down. Roof did hold, thank God, I was very worried about that. Amazing to see the sun shining on the previously shady lanes and road covered in green thick as a carpet. A friend had the roof go off her apartment and 5 other units and the tennants, all Guyanese, were told by landlady they could fix it themselves, which they did yesterday. But everything she owns is wet: clothes, tv, etc. Nobody was injured by Earl, thankfully, and perhaps this will wake up many in BVI to the fact that a direct hit could be life-threatening. There are some good pics online at http://www.bvimusic.com

I am glad that you are fine and no fatalitles occured. Only material damage but that can be replaced.

[bvigal]

Luis, glad to read your post that power was back on so quickly. Those were some nasty, nasty bands going over Puerto Rico. I agree with you that Gaston is another one to worry about. It's from that wave over Africa we were talking about last week. Thought it looked like 'trouble' then!

[tropicana]

Regional High Temps and Rainfall (if any)
for Wed Sep 1 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.4C 94F trace
Crown Point, Tobago 32.7C 91F 0.4mm

Point Salines, Grenada 31.2C 88F 1.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.1C 86F 0.3mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 30.2C 86F 40.8mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.8C 89F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.2C 90F

VC Bird, Antigua 27.9C 82F 7.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.6C 85F 1.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 32.8C 91F 21.0mm
Juliana Airport, St Maarten 30.7C 87F 7.0mm

Kingston, Jamaica 32.9C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.1C 93F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.3C 90F 1.0mm

Nassau, Bahamas 32.4C 90F 1.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 28.9C 84F
Hato, Curacao 35.0C 95F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 020941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM FIONA WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A TUTT LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND TROPICAL STORM
FIONA...WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND VENTILATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW...
TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS LOCALLY FROM THIS TUTT WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL
STORM GASTON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...SEVERAL GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL TPC/NHC FORECAST TRACK SHOW THIS
SYSTEM BEING IN A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATING AN
INTENSIFYING HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM
GASTON THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 02/14Z...ALTHOUGH A VCSH OR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VI...TKPK AND TNCM. AFT 02/14Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...RESULTING IN LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 02/17Z-02/21Z. LIGHT SE LLVL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS BY 03/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 8
FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...BUT
WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOME SECTIONS OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS A TUTT IS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA ON LABOR DAY.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN BUILD STRONGLY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION. SAHARAN AIR LAYER EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ANTICIPATE ISOLD/SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO RETURN TO WRN PARTS OF PR AS IS TYPICAL
FOR THE SUMMERTIME. NOT AS HOT TOMORROW UNDER A MORE EASTERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT IT COULD BE
QUITE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE AND GENERATE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF SAHARAN/MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND ENHANCED BY TUTT LOW. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO PERSIST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL REMNANTS OF GASTON MOVE INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH REGARDS TO GASTON...NHC IS INDICATING A 20% CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND A 43%
CHANCE OF ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME
FRAME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY FORECASTS
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. GLOBAL
MODELS STILL LIKE GASTON AND DEVELOP IT INTO A HURRICANE IN FIVE
DAYS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IT
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATION.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR LARGER TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST TO
ABSORB GASTON AS IT CATCHES UP TO HIM HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY
SPECULATIVE. ANYWAY...EVEN IN THE CASE OF GASTON COMING BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM ANY EFFECTS WOULD NOT BE FELT UNTIL AT LEAST TUE
AT THE EARLIEST AND NOT LIKELY UNTIL WED OF NEXT WEEK. SO ENJOY
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MAKE SURE TO TUNE BACK ON MONDAY TO
SEE WHAT IS GOING WITH THE TROPICS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 03/17Z...WITH ONLY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 03/17Z-03/23Z OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY 3-5 FT OVER OPEN ATLC WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER OPEN
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS SET AT
SAN JUAN/P.R. TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET IN 2005.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We continue to watch Ex Gaston.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD AND
THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY AND WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY ALSO...
EXPECT AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY TO COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND VENTILATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT
LOW...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH AFTERNOON. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS LOCALLY FROM THIS
TUTT WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. ALSO...SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED BY AND TAKEN FROM
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED...IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE AND
GENERATE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF
SAHARAN/MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND ENHANCED BY THE TUTT LOW...
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK MAINLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
TOURISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM
DURING THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OF 8-10 KFT WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
EAST TO WEST THROUGH 03/16Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
LLVL ENE WIND FLOW. AFT 03/16Z...EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS IN A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH 03/22Z. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES RECORDED YESTERDAY
AT THE SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BROKE THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER 2ND WHICH WAS 93 DEGREES SET
IN 1995 AND THEN EQUALED IN 2005.

[cycloneye]

From Crownweather Services

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Ex-Tropical Depression Gaston Discussion:
Gaston has degenerated into a tropical wave, but has the potential to become a tropical cyclone once again over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the north of this system. It should be noted that environmental conditons are forecast to become more favorable for regeneration once it gets close to the Lesser Antilles around the middle part of next week. One possibility is that a larger tropical wave to the east of Ex-Gaston could absorb it and still become a tropical cyclone around Tuesday or Wednesday. It is something that I will be monitoring over the next few days and I will keep you all updated.

[msbee]

so don't let your guard down yet, folks!
stay ever watchful!

[Macrocane]

It has been raining in the central and western part of El Salvador since midnight, though they have been light to moderate rains they have been persistent in time nad have not stopped. If you look at IR imagery the convection is not very strong but in the radar you can see the rains covering almost all San Salvador and the nearby areas.

This map shows the accumulated rain between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today:



And an image of the large disturbance that is producing the rains:



This is the link to the radar (it is a short range radar and it only shows the rain in the central part of the country):

http://www.snet.gob.sv/googlemaps/radares/radar.php

[alanstover]

Yes, Macrocane, we have been getting moderate rain all morning as well, and doesn´t look like its going to end anytime soon. If I understand infrared images correctly, it looks to me like convection is getting stronger, and the TWO says the low is almost stationary.

This could be the makings of a disaster situation here on the west side of Central America, since everything is already very saturated with all the rain we´ve been having.

Take care and stay dry!

[Macrocane]

You're right alanstover, rains like these only makes the situation more dangerous especially this year that almost the entire regios has experienced above average rainfall. Stay safe you too.

[cycloneye]

Stay safe both of you in CentralAmerica with that bad weather there. Have fatalitles occured over there with this?

[Macrocane]

Thanks cycloneye.

And unfortunately three deaths were reported in El Salvador this morning when a tree fell over a school bus killing three kids http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/nota_completa.asp?idCat=6364&idArt=5110446

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST TUTT LOW WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

DISCUSSION....LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS COMBINED WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE...LED TO FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO HOWEVER DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO OUR EAST...IS APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT WE WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...INDUCING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT...THIS UPPER
LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THIS AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. LATE NEXT
WEEK...THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON
ARE GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. WITH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD... RESIDENTS
AND VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ AT
LEAST THROUGH 3/22Z. AFTER 3/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04/14Z...ALTHOUGH A VCSH OR
-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VI...TKPK AND TNCM. AFT
04/16Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...RESULTING IN LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN
04/17Z-04/21Z. LLVL WINDS FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING
THE WEEKEND. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SEAS WILL
DETERIORATE AS TROPICAL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL RETROGRESS TO
HISPANIOLA BY LABOR DAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC
TO BUILD WWD NORTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. REMNANT LOW OF GASTON
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THREATEN THE
LESSER ANTILLES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING AND IS NOW RETROGRADING
AS SEEN ON ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LOCAL AREA TO BECOME
UNDER A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW SO ANTICIPATING A MORE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SAHARAN/MID-LVL DRY AIR
CONVECTION COULD BE QUITE STRONG IF NOT SEVERE. SOME SMALL HAIL
REPORTED PAST TWO DAYS. WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE OVR WRN PARTS
OF PR.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO REMNANTS OF GASTON WHICH GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY TAKE ACROSS THE LEEWARDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK. LATEST 18Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH ONSET
OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF GASTON BRINGING WINDS AND
RAIN BY 12Z WED. HAVE ADJUSTED ALL GRIDS DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME
FRAME TO INDICATE WX IN GENERAL TO THE ENTIRE CWA. PLEASE REFER
TO PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AND VCSH
ACROSS USVI TAF SITES...TNCM AND TKPK. LLVL WINDS FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS.

&&

MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH LABOR DAY. MARINERS SHOULD
PAY ATTENTION TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND PLAN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 AM AST SAT SEP 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PASSING BANDS OF MOISTURE CAUGHT IN
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE EITHER LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TUTT LOW VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTIONS EXPECTED TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

WHILE SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION THANKS TO GOOD VENTILATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUTT LOW TRACKING WESTWARD. WHILE THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...EXPECT THE STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
GASTON THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THIS
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE RECLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE EITHER LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
TOURISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THIS STORM HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AND VCSH FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST PR DURING AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

[msbee]

Good morning
CROWNWEATHER TROPICAL DISCUSSION:

Issued: Saturday, September 4, 2010 830 am EDT/730 am CDT

Tropical Storm Earl:
For Information About Tropical Storm Earl with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2972.

Radar and satellite imagery indicates that Earl has developed a ring of convection around the center of the storm and I maintain that this is still a borderline hurricane. Earl is tracking northeast at a forward speed of 30 mph and it is expected to track across Nova Scotia today and slowly weaken.

With that said, Earl may maintain its borderline hurricane intensity as it tracks across Nova Scotia today. The reason why is that ocean temperatures are running 2 to 4 degrees above normal in the Gulf of Maine and off of the coast of Nova Scotia. So, winds of near hurricane force are expected across coastal Nova Scotia today. Tropical storm force winds can be expected across eastern Maine the rest of this morning.
Total rainfall amounts across eastern Maine into the Canadian Maritimes will average 2 to 3 inches.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected across eastern Maine and up to 4 feet across coastal Nova Scotia today. The surge combined with large breaking waves will cause minor to moderate beach erosion and overwash.

This will be the last discussion regarding Earl.

Ex-Tropical Depression Gaston:
I am also closely monitoring a tropical disturbance that was once Tropical Depression Gaston. This system was located about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Convection around this system continues to increase and organize and this may be upgraded once more to a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours.

The track of this system is pretty straight forward over the weekend and it will track nearly due west underneath a ridge of high pressure. What is peculiar is that the model guidance as a whole are backing off on development and keep it relatively weak. It should be noted that a weaker system would be able to track nearly due west right into the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and this is something that will have to be watched for very closely. Now, if this system is able to strengthen and become a hurricane against what the model guidance is forecasting, then it would like curve northward as it tracks through the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

As for the particular individual models, the European model doesn't develop it until it reaches the central Caribbean next weekend and forecasts it to be just east of the Yucatan Peninsula 10 days from now. The GFDL model forecasts it to be a strong hurricane in the northeast Caribbean about 5 days from now. Finally, the SHIPS intensity model forecasts this to be a upper end Category 2 hurricane in 5 days from now in the northeast Caribbean.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring this system very closely this weekend and will keep you all updated. Those of you in the Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system and for those of you with friends and family in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, give them a heads up and let them know that there is a tropical system that they should closely monitor this weekend. The timeframe for this system to potentially affect the Leeward Islands is during the day Tuesday.

Bay of Campeche Disturbance:
There is an area of disturbed weather in the southern Bay of Campeche that I will be watching closely this weekend. This disturbed weather is slowly tracking northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Some of the model guidance like the GFS and NAM models forecast this to spin up into a tropical depression or tropical storm later Sunday or on Monday before tracking inland into northeast Mexico or south Texas late Monday or early Tuesday. Other model guidance like the European and Canadian models forecast no development from this system.

Looking at wind shear analysis in this area, it appears that environmental conditions are favorable for development, however, the proximity to land over the next 24 hours will inhibit development. My take is that this is something that definitely needs to be watched closely and I would put the overall development chances at between 40 and 50 percent. Timeframe that this is most likely to develop would be between midday on Sunday and sunset on Monday. So, all interests in northeast Mexico and south Texas, be aware that you may have a tropical storm knocking on your door in just 48 to 60 hours from now.

I will be monitoring this disturbance closely and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Sunday.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.