ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

Wxman57, you are so right. Gaston makes me nervous for those places in EC already impacted by Earl. I just got home this morning! Many here are STILL without power. The ghuts are piled full of debris and will stay that way until trees are first removed and power lines repaired. A big rain would spell disaster. Don't even want to think what some strong winds and heavy rain would do while everyone's still in 'cleanup mode'! And especially if this doesn't get reclassed soon enough, the public right now thinks Gaston is gone.

Is all over the newspapers here that gaston dissipated and with the long weekend comming,many here will be caught offguard.

[Hugo1989]

Wxman57, you are so right. Gaston makes me nervous for those places in EC already impacted by Earl. I just got home this morning! Many here are STILL without power. The ghuts are piled full of debris and will stay that way until trees are first removed and power lines repaired. A big rain would spell disaster. Don't even want to think what some strong winds and heavy rain would do while everyone's still in 'cleanup mode'! And especially if this doesn't get reclassed soon enough, the public right now thinks Gaston is gone.

Is all over the newspapers here that gaston dissipated and with the long weekend comming,many here will be caught offguard.

Puerto Rico It's Better!

[Tireman4]

Right, I do have Gaston as a hurricane approaching the NE Caribbean Wednesday. Oh, and by no means do I think the Gulf is done for 2010. It hasn't yet started. Look for activity to develop farther west by the last half of September and continue developing in the Caribbean/Gulf through October and into November.

Oh great. Cold fronts and tropical trouble. I love the Gulf Coast in the Fall. LOL

[bvigal]

Wxman57, you are so right. Gaston makes me nervous for those places in EC already impacted by Earl. I just got home this morning! Many here are STILL without power. The ghuts are piled full of debris and will stay that way until trees are first removed and power lines repaired. A big rain would spell disaster. Don't even want to think what some strong winds and heavy rain would do while everyone's still in 'cleanup mode'! And especially if this doesn't get reclassed soon enough, the public right now thinks Gaston is gone.

Is all over the newspapers here that gaston dissipated and with the long weekend comming,many here will be caught offguard.

Luis, I had completely forgotten the fact that it's Friday of a holiday weekend. Everyone rushing off this afternoon to their holiday activities at the beach, on a boat, etc. OH dear!!
People in the US mainland are so geared to news all day long, delivered a number of ways. People down here are more laid back. They check things in the morning and then go to work and don't think about it until the following day!

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
RE-FORM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

latest vorticity

[HURAKAN]

03/1745 UTC 14.3N 42.1W T1.0/1.0 GASTON -- Atlantic

latest

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters:

Gaston may regenerate
Tropical storm Gaston lost its battle with dry air yesterday, degenerating into a disorganized low pressure area. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a broad surface circulation again, and a few heavy thunderstorms have begun to appear. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate. The large amount of dry air surrounding Gaston's remains seen on water vapor satellite loops will continue to be a major impediment to development. NHC is giving Gaston a 40% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday. I'd put these odds a little higher, at 60%. The GFS model develops Gaston and predicts it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and Canadian models also indicate Gaston will re-develop, but move the storm slower and show it near the northern Lesser Antilles seven days from now.

[Vortex]

Gaston is beginning to pick up a bit more speed..WV isuggests the subtropical ridge is beginning to strengthen to the north. This system will continue to move over progressively warmer waters and relatively low shear the next 5 days. 12Z CMC is further SW than the 00z run...ECM shows a weak reflection also indicating a move into the carribean. It would appear very likely that future Gaston makes it into the carribean...How strong is the bigger question....Not sold on the recuravature given by the 12Z GFS across PR.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090318, , BEST, 0, 149N, 419W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[gatorcane]

Gaston is beginning to pick up a bit more speed..WV isuggests the subtropical ridge is beginning to strengthen to the north. This system will continue to move over progressively warmer waters and relatively low shear the next 5 days. 12Z CMC is further SW than the 00z run...ECM shows a weak reflection also indicating a move into the carribean. It would appear very likely that future Gaston makes it into the carribean...How strong is the bigger question....Not sold on the recuravature given by the 12Z GFS across PR.

The recurve is happening at 200+ hours! At this point its just a guess from that particular model so don't take it as that is what is going to happen.

Instead of referring to just the last run, take a look at the last several runs and note the trends (or lack of). There are some in there with a Southern FL and a GOM hit.

[Vortex]

right gator...the only thing thats been consistent with the GFS(so far) is the track into the eastern carribean...beyond that anything but consistent..

[HURAKAN]

loop

[Sanibel]

Looks like cyclogenesis to me. Think we have a player here once conditions improve.

[Vortex]

Structure coming back nicely this afternoon..Just a matter of time before we get some deeper convection. No doubt this is nearing or is TD..Probably go back to TS quickly and then steady strengthening thereafter...

[ColinDelia]

18z SHIPS output

SHIPS 36 knots in 24 hours, 69 knots in 72 hours, 97 knots in 120 hours
LGEM 35 knots in 36 hours, 69 knots in 84 hours, 110 knots in 120 hours

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Vortex]

Thats is insane to see the usual conservative LGEM at 110kts..Even ships coming in with 97kts with an initialization of 25kts is impressive....

[BigB0882]

Why are people concerned about this surprising people on a holiday weekend? If you believe the models then this wouldn't make landfall until this time next year! I'm exaggerating obviously but this isn't sneaking up on anyone in the next few days, not in the CONUS at least.