ATL: GASTON - Models
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
if it doesnt make that connection at 216hr with that trof, look out FL and GOM.....still though 216hr is la la land....
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
The GFS has been on the recurve wagon for the past couple of runs, but each run has been getting Gaston further west before recurving. I agree that this is going to be one of these storms that's going to keep many awake...remember most S. Florida strikes are from the Caribbean
As always, it's all going to come down to timing, timing, and timing...but here in South Florida, I always fear the Caribbean storms coming from down south....the more west it goes into the Caribbean, the higher the chances that a trough (like the GFS picks up on) kicks it up this way before recurving
Next week is going to be very interesting methinks
As always, it's all going to come down to timing, timing, and timing...but here in South Florida, I always fear the Caribbean storms coming from down south....the more west it goes into the Caribbean, the higher the chances that a trough (like the GFS picks up on) kicks it up this way before recurving
Next week is going to be very interesting methinks

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
Gaston needs to be watched. Since it weakened to a tropical wave, it is more likely to move west. I think Gaston has a good chance of being a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
Ptarmigan wrote:Gaston needs to be watched. Since it weakened to a tropical wave, it is more likely to move west. I think Gaston has a good chance of being a hurricane.
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Wasn't this the storm that they were saying if it stayed weak it would recurve but if it strengthened it would head west?
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Most models seem to have a solution where a weak system could well miss the trough connection and end up being a W.Caribbean/Gulf threat but the synoptics are such that a stronger system probably will recurve through the Islands...
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
Where is this tropical wave Gaston located right now?
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
6z. 84 hours. Very weak. It has the ULL moving west to over Cuba so that is not a factor it looks like.


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- ColinDelia
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Yeah a much weaker run from the GFS, closer to ECM in that respect.
We will see, when the models all trend weaker more often then not that is what occurs...however a weaker system also gets further west in this set-up.
We will see, when the models all trend weaker more often then not that is what occurs...however a weaker system also gets further west in this set-up.
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Yeah looks lime it gets to the Yucatan then just vanishes...not sure we should be putting faith into the strength though until we have a developed system again...I'd normally not say that but in this case I think it may well help the models out.
Either way the weaker it stays the bigger the threat becomes for Central America, Mexico and most of the Gulf...BUT I'd say the safest place you could be right now looking at the models is the central Gulf...models very keen on a big upper high shielding that region right now but clearly time for huge changes still.
Either way the weaker it stays the bigger the threat becomes for Central America, Mexico and most of the Gulf...BUT I'd say the safest place you could be right now looking at the models is the central Gulf...models very keen on a big upper high shielding that region right now but clearly time for huge changes still.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models
12z Tropical Models
Moving a little bit faster.

Moving a little bit faster.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 041236
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100904 1200 100905 0000 100905 1200 100906 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 45.6W 16.9N 47.6W 17.4N 50.0W 17.9N 52.5W
BAMD 16.3N 45.6W 16.9N 47.7W 17.0N 50.0W 16.9N 52.7W
BAMM 16.3N 45.6W 16.7N 47.3W 16.8N 49.2W 16.7N 51.4W
LBAR 16.3N 45.6W 17.2N 47.7W 18.2N 50.2W 19.1N 52.8W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100906 1200 100907 1200 100908 1200 100909 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 55.5W 18.7N 61.5W 19.3N 66.4W 19.5N 70.4W
BAMD 16.6N 55.9W 16.1N 62.5W 15.9N 67.9W 15.4N 72.4W
BAMM 16.4N 53.9W 16.2N 59.1W 16.7N 63.4W 17.2N 66.4W
LBAR 19.7N 55.7W 20.3N 61.4W 19.9N 66.0W 16.2N 67.3W
SHIP 62KTS 79KTS 92KTS 106KTS
DSHP 62KTS 79KTS 92KTS 102KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 45.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 43.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 41.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Strength will be vital to the models, most are trending weaker and thus as you can see there is not even a hint of recurve in the models right now...
The worst case is something like the CMC which stays weak, strengthens a little and lifts out BUT not enough and the system gets far enough west just to the north of the islands to head westwards again towards the Gulf.
The slight WSW bend is obvious on most of the models now.
The worst case is something like the CMC which stays weak, strengthens a little and lifts out BUT not enough and the system gets far enough west just to the north of the islands to head westwards again towards the Gulf.
The slight WSW bend is obvious on most of the models now.
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- ColinDelia
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6z GFS.
It initialized the center too far south to begin with. Best track had 15.8N at 6z whereas GFS had 15.1N.
GFS turns back south after reaching 15.9N at 30 hours. It is interesting that GFS has a southerly component
to motion from 30 hours to 78 hours (see KWT above
)
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 000, 151N, 434W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 006, 155N, 443W, 23, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 012, 157N, 453W, 23, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 018, 157N, 464W, 24, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 024, 158N, 477W, 24, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 030, 159N, 490W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 036, 158N, 502W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 042, 158N, 515W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 048, 156N, 528W, 25, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 054, 153N, 541W, 26, 1012, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 060, 157N, 553W, 25, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 066, 153N, 566W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 072, 151N, 580W, 27, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 078, 151N, 592W, 26, 1012, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 084, 153N, 605W, 23, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 090, 154N, 614W, 24, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 096, 155N, 624W, 23, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 102, 154N, 634W, 23, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 108, 159N, 641W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 114, 160N, 650W, 21, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 120, 159N, 655W, 21, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 126, 161N, 661W, 21, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 132, 162N, 669W, 22, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 138, 164N, 671W, 20, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 144, 165N, 677W, 22, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 150, 168N, 681W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 156, 170N, 690W, 20, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 162, 170N, 694W, 20, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 168, 170N, 701W, 18, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
It initialized the center too far south to begin with. Best track had 15.8N at 6z whereas GFS had 15.1N.
GFS turns back south after reaching 15.9N at 30 hours. It is interesting that GFS has a southerly component
to motion from 30 hours to 78 hours (see KWT above

AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 000, 151N, 434W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 006, 155N, 443W, 23, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 012, 157N, 453W, 23, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 018, 157N, 464W, 24, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 024, 158N, 477W, 24, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 030, 159N, 490W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 036, 158N, 502W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 042, 158N, 515W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 048, 156N, 528W, 25, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 054, 153N, 541W, 26, 1012, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 060, 157N, 553W, 25, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 066, 153N, 566W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 072, 151N, 580W, 27, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 078, 151N, 592W, 26, 1012, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 084, 153N, 605W, 23, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 090, 154N, 614W, 24, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 096, 155N, 624W, 23, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 102, 154N, 634W, 23, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 108, 159N, 641W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 114, 160N, 650W, 21, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 120, 159N, 655W, 21, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 126, 161N, 661W, 21, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 132, 162N, 669W, 22, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 138, 164N, 671W, 20, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 144, 165N, 677W, 22, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 150, 168N, 681W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 156, 170N, 690W, 20, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 162, 170N, 694W, 20, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 168, 170N, 701W, 18, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
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