GOM

[Bailey1777]

Well it is sept. now and short of alex the gom has been a dead zone woul like to hear others thoughts on what the gom will or will not hold for sept.

[StormClouds63]

Bailey177:

You're absolutely right ... it's been a grave yard for tropical development. It's too early to completely right off the GOM for 2010, but conditions continue to remain generally unfavorable. I'd like to hear from some of our mets as to the reasons why and if any changes are expected before fronts begin moving through regularly. Is it a LaNina pattern, weak Bermuda high, or just one of those seasons where activity is limited in the GOM? It certainly isn't lack of high water temperatures.

[Johnny]

Well the fronts are starting to roll south and I'm feeling pretty darn confident that Texas will be spared this year. Anyone want to take any wagers on this? I don't see any homegrown development anytime soon and the CV systems so far have all been recurves. This could be a pattern for the rest of the season? I believe this pattern will continue for the most part, or at least I don't see any CV storms getting into the GOM. Just my 2 cents.

[wxman57]

I think that the Gulf threats will resume after mid month and continue into November this year. Very much like the analog years. First, they have to stop developing all the way out in the Atlantic by Africa. That'll come soon enough.

[Migle]

To me, after September 15th, I don't worry to much anymore. Lili gave us a scare a while back but I think were going to be ok this year. If the Cape Verde storms keep doing what their doing, then I am confident we shouldn't see any of those.

[South Texas Storms]

Well the fronts are starting to roll south and I'm feeling pretty darn confident that Texas will be spared this year. Anyone want to take any wagers on this? I don't see any homegrown development anytime soon and the CV systems so far have all been recurves. This could be a pattern for the rest of the season? I believe this pattern will continue for the most part, or at least I don't see any CV storms getting into the GOM. Just my 2 cents.

i think it is still too early to write off any texas landfalls this season. i think texas still has a chance until the middle of october. just my opinion...

[Steve]

>>Well it is sept. now and short of alex the gom has been a dead zone woul like to hear others thoughts on what the gom will or will not hold for sept.

Dead as far as named storms only. Maybe you guys haven't seen anything in Houston, but it's been nonstop deluges here in the City. There have been 4 of these episodes to date. Luckily nothing has been strong outside of a couple of 6-8" days of rainfall which don't even show up on the official reports, but if you were here, you would know. Anyway, I'm looking at the Gulf opening back up after the 12-15th of September (probably along with the next the MJO pulse as well) and as the NE begins to cool. I wouldn't rule out a tropical threat or two in October as per some of the analog years. Look for probably 3 named storms (possibly a major or Georges-esque type 2) for the rest of the season with possibly a shot at a late hybrid. Hopefully none of us gets anything too hard or violent.

[lonelymike]

Does anyone remember Opal?

I think there is a pretty good chance the Gulf will see a significant storm. I hope not. IMO the main threat area after 10/1 will shift to FLA if anything forms in the Carib (ala Wilma). Time is running out for the Northern Gulf and Western Gulf to get any CV system but homebrew is just as bad sometimes.

[HURAKAN]

GFS likes the crossing scenario

[StormClouds63]

I trust WxMan57's judgment on this ... Let's stay prepared a while longer.

I agree, however, that Lili certainly got "zapped" by dry, stable air. A big-time scare. I think Lili is one of the few tropical cyclones on record that actually deteriorated at a faster rate than it intensifed. Lili went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4, and finally back to Cat 1.

Thanks for your response, Wxman57.

[Steve]

I trust his ideas too.
-------------------
As for Lili, 2002 is a non-analog. Other than some heat content in the Gulf, there aren't many similarities between 2010 and 2002. 2002 , for whatever reason, was an El Nino Gulf season. There were 5 or 6 named storms that year around the Gulf and one system that came over from the Pacific and brought the city some rainfall.

As for Opal, yeah, I remember that one. It was freaky. All of the sudden it hit the loop current and exploded before weakening a bit prior to landfall.

Also Matthew in '04 was a late Gulf storm (we got about 7" from that one).

Juan in '85 was another late, memorable Gulf storm. And there's always Rita (2005) and George (1998) showing that even after the 20th of September, you can get some big hits in the western or Central Gulf.

Of all those seasons though, only 1995, 1998 and in some ways 2005, are from analog seasons. JMO, but the Gulf season isn't over.

As for the bets, I wouldn't count Texas out yet. You never know, but it's certainly still possible that you could have some type of tropical event. The Western Gulf still has a lot of anomalous warm water there.

[HURAKAN]

It's the NAM, btw! lol

[HURAKAN]

GFS

[wxman57]

1998 is the best analog for 2010. Remember Geoges? Struck just east of New Orleans on Sept. 29th. Then there was Cat 5 Mitch in the western Caribbean in late October. Strong La Nina seasons generally end late.

[Steve]

Agreed 57. I think a lot of us have been warily looking back to 1998. Some posters have been arguing against anything happening this year, but they've mostly been silenced now by the barrage of recent storms. Georges (though it wasn't super strong), Mitch and Opal are the three storms from the analog years that I most fear. Obviously a late, southern Caribbean threat can kill lots and lots of people as per Mitch.

[bob rulz]

The Gulf is definitely not out of the woods, particularly the eastern Gulf. The heat content in the western Caribbean is shockingly high right now, if the right disturbance moves through at the right time, I fear we could see a Wilma or Mitch-like storm, which of course also means that the threat in the eastern Gulf I think is going to persist well into October at least.

Juan in '85 was another late, memorable Gulf storm.

Kate occurred even later in '85. Two late October/November storms in the Gulf in the same year - quite rare.

[Steve]

>>As for the bets, I wouldn't count Texas out yet. You never know, but it's certainly still possible that you could have some type of tropical event. The Western Gulf still has a lot of anomalous warm water there.

Remember that from Friday, 9/3.

>>Now that we're heading into the prime of the season, I guess it's time to put something out there. Looking at the analogs (CSU, Impact, Accu, etc.) it seems like there are several different threat areas to be considered. North Carolina looks like it should have at least a couple of close calls. Certainly that means the seaboard could be in play for at least some brush-by action. Florida and the Bahamas look like sitting ducks. The Caribbean should see tense moments with some of the long trackers including the potential for a late season threat in Latin America. The Northern Gulf Coast is clearly in play. Judging by some of the notable analog storms (Georges, Erin, Opal, Katrina, etc.), threat looks more likely to be MS/AL/NWFL, but LA has been a magnet for weaker stuff so far this year and could see more action. I also wouldn't be surprised to see another threat over toward Northern Mexico/Texas...I think the threats are real for all of those places if the storms materialize. We could be in for a lot of action in the southeastern U.S.. Based on what I'm saying, worst-case would probably be near-historic but well short of 2005...

That's from 8/20. Over the next 2 1/2 weeks, North Carolina had one close call with Earl (meant brush-by action for seaboard). Now we have the "wouldn't be surprised to see another threat over toward Northern Mexico/Texas." There' a long season to go and a lot of places still on that list.