ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Boriken]

Ull moving west ,should not be a problem for this system.

You didn't saw yesterdays loops. When it was SE ef PR and today is over PR.

[bob rulz]

So only gained .1 of latitude in 12 hours.

.3 actually.

I used ATCF "best track"

18z. 16.6 N 46.6W
6z 16.7N 49.2W (12 hours later)

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Aah okay I see. I got confused by the post directly before yours, haha.

Definitely a good refiring of convection over night. Of course, NHC will wait to see if it is sustained this time.

[HURRICANELONNY]

There is no way of knowing the speed of the ULL unless you work for NHC/NWS. They have the programs. XGaston is only moving 10mph. My take on this little Gaston is it will develop and go South of Florida. It could become a major but it's so small I think it will crash into Hispinola or Haiti. Don't see anything curving x-gaston. So that's my take.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 13:45z image. You can see the tiny circulation.

[painkillerr]

This is all great stuff. I'm curious, (seriously) what to you guys do to entertain yourselves during the off season?

[Vortex]

As has been stated the last several days 50W for many storms seems to be the "magic" longitude for those traversing off Africa with delayed development. This morning's visible indicate a marked improvement in organization and convection. The upper air pattern and remaining envirnonmental factors are very favorable for continued organization. It appears likely that Gaston will move over or just north of Guadeloupe then W/WNW to over or just north of PR. The intensity as usual is a tough call but a 60mph storm at this point seems reasonable. Beyond PR much will be dependant on any land interactions.

[ericinmia]

[Stephanie]

This is all great stuff. I'm curious, (seriously) what to you guys do to entertain yourselves during the off season?

There's all kinds of weather that we track, snowstorms, severe weather. We do track tropical systems during our winter months south of the equator. You'll see the Winter Weather forum rev up and this forum die back a bit.

[Blown Away]

Here is the 13:45z image. You can see the tiny circulation.

That tiny swirl may be the center, but I think the LLC circulation is broader.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

Moisture from the ULL is going to pump into x-gaston as stated by the Puerto rico NWS. People need to read instead of looking at models all the time. As for painkilleer. What we do on the off time? You said it. Painpills!

[Vortex]

Convection firing just to the SE of the vorticity..This should overspread the circulation center and develop a symetrical look later on today..

[HURAKAN]

convection moving closer to the center

[painkillerr]

This is all great stuff. I'm curious, (seriously) what to you guys do to entertain yourselves during the off season?

There's all kinds of weather that we track, snowstorms, severe weather. We do track tropical systems during our winter months south of the equator. You'll see the Winter Weather forum rev up and this forum die back a bit.

Ok I get it.... so you guys stay at it year round in different forums. Very interesting. I'm a disaster manager and this content has been very helpful to me. TKS!

[wxman57]

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

[Migle]

Gaston actually has some convection. This is same thing it did yesterday though, but it wasn't able to keep it. Let's see if it does this time.

[jconsor]

Climo aside, what synoptic feature would induce a recurve north of PR? I don't see anything to cause that. The trough off the US East coast is forecast to be too weak to lead to a recurve.

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

[HURAKAN]

steering currents

[perk]

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

I have to play devils advocate, and ask why when the models at least many of them state otherwise.

[cycloneye]

Circulation is less naked at 14:45z.

[HURRICANELONNY]

You might be right wxman. It won't hit the U.S. It will go south and crash into the Yucatan. Climo is something with a mean average. But the pattern doesn't show a recurve.