ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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#1101 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:22 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah if you look at the loops Aric the easterly shear is an issue, not sure its going to ease off anytime soon either and so that combined with fairly poor overall general instablity combined with the dry air just isn't allowing convection to hold.

Its 93L in the E/C Atlantic all over again!



oh it will ease soon. as it approaches the upper trough the upper flow shifts from easterly to more southerly which would create a more divergent environment aloft and before it shifts it will have to relax and you can see this on the shear maps as well as the WV I think once the shear eases it should have enough low level convergence to make a come back. although the longer it stays with no convection ( or this intermittent convection ) the less likely it will come back but I still say it will at least somewhat
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Re:

#1102 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:24 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah if you look at the loops Aric the easterly shear is an issue, not sure its going to ease off anytime soon either and so that combined with fairly poor overall general instablity combined with the dry air just isn't allowing convection to hold.

Its 93L in the E/C Atlantic all over again!


The shear is going to ease off starting tonight. I think his chances will improve drastically in 12 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1103 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:35 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:I don't think Hispaniola's going to weaken this one for us. Right now the models are converging to the south of Haiti and the DR.


Could well be a close run thing in the end though the models are suggesting there will be enough of a W/WSW motion to avoid Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1104 Postby Fego » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:39 pm

Besides guessing and the outlook, what do you guys think about XGaston reaching the td status before hitting the islands?
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1105 Postby Bailey1777 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:40 pm

aric i understand the synoptics vs. climatology thing but i have read post after post about climatoloy says......so i was trying to make a point.
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#1106 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:10 pm

per the 1945utc looking a little better organized..tonight should prove interesting.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1107 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:17 pm

Notice the moisture ahead of gaston from the ULL ahead of him and the ITCZ moisture slowly moving in. It's like a snowball rolling down a semi snowy hill. Soon as it hits the next snow patch it will get bigger.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-wv.html
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#1108 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:25 pm

Lots of moisture to the east of it but alot of dry air blowing into xgaston from the east. If it gets rid of that dry air, then it has a great chance of becoming a storm again.
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#1109 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:46 pm

Big flare up right on the LLC. Let's see if it sticks.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1110 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:09 pm

Image

Not to bad...
Last edited by Florida1118 on Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1111 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:10 pm

Image
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#1112 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:13 pm

this new convection although still small is looking promising.. the other interesting addition is the convection increasing on a band to the NW and is a indicator of the improving environment ahead if gaston. if this hold its is right que
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#1113 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:24 pm

It's been my experience that sometimes small cyclones can go unnoticed by the global models. When ships/lgem are consistanly forecasting a powerful hurricane but the globals remain weak the reason may partly lie with how small "gaston" is currently....
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#1114 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:29 pm

I could be wrong but I can't find any deserniable circulation any longer..The one earlier appears to have opened up..
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Re:

#1115 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:30 pm

Vortex wrote:I could be wrong but I can't find any deserniable circulation any longer..The one earlier appears to have opened up..


I see plenty of cloud lines indicating west winds. its clearly more broad than yesterday but still there.
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#1116 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:37 pm

thanks aric, it must be the lack of sleep during the peak of hurricane season :wink:
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#1117 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:40 pm

Vortex wrote:thanks aric, it must be the lack of sleep during the peak of hurricane season :wink:


yeah I had to take a break for a couple days..lol
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#1118 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:56 pm

Another convective burst, its clearly in a wax and wane pattern right now which means if the system does find the conditions to hold a convective burst it won't take long at all for it to strengthen...but will it get those conditions, that is what remains to be seen...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1119 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:58 pm

I think I see what Vortex is seeing. The convection burst that the LLC rolled under died out, so where did the LLC go? Did it relocate to the new burst to the SE?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1120 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Sep 05, 2010 5:04 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:I think I see what Vortex is seeing. The convection burst that the LLC rolled under died out, so where did the LLC go? Did it relocate to the new burst to the SE?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html


I don't think the LLC relocated. The convection from this morning was to its west I thought.
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