ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Fego]

They won't upgrade at 5:00 pm.

[ROCK]

So strange, on the one hand you have the intensity models going nuts with this and the GFDL making a Cat. 3 in the western Carib. and on the other hand not one Global model is doing anything with it, not even the Canadian which usually turns every fart into a disaster movie!!

I wonder how much the ULL is playing into the Global models or if it is the dry phase of the MJO, I have no idea.

nice analogy Dean.... you are so right...globals are having fits with this....strange...

[supercane]

Yep, recon flight done without a VDM issued means no upgrade, which is the right decision IMO.

[fasterdisaster]

Gaston looks very close to TD again at this point. Convection still needs to fire up some more before it can be called.

[fasterdisaster]

If convection can persist and intensify a little, I think they'll upgrade at 11.

[ColinDelia]

So strange, on the one hand you have the intensity models going nuts with this and the GFDL making a Cat. 3 in the western Carib. and on the other hand not one Global model is doing anything with it, not even the Canadian which usually turns every fart into a disaster movie!!

I wonder how much the ULL is playing into the Global models or if it is the dry phase of the MJO, I have no idea.

The GFS doesn't let Gaston get anywhere near the ULL (I haven't checked the others). If you remember a few days back the GFS had gaston track to the Northwest into the bahamas turned it into a Hurricane and then into South Florida. The big difference in that run was the upper level environment. In that run gaston got underneath the upper level high that is north of gaston and has been sliding west and expanding with it. Since then the GFS keeps Gaston at the southern periphery of that high. What the GFS does is it has the ULL move rapidly to the west as the upper level high continues to move and expand west - just as it has been doing for a number of days. i've noticed in a large number of cases that the GFS develops the storms that it can get under a high (or when one develops over it)

The other thing I've noticed is that the GFS doesn't see much of a mid-level structure to gaston. Just a side comment. Not sure how that plays into it if at all.

[redneck51]

I don't think a Tropical Storm Warning holds much importance. Heavy showers and winds to 40-50 are not a real big deal. When we get to Hurricane Watch or Warning it is a whole new game but TS warnings, to me; are pretty meaningless

Maybe meaningless to you; not to others.

Jeanne (2004) was a TS and 8 people died because of the storm when it hit Puerto Rico:

Puerto Rico was impacted by tropical storm force winds and heavy rain, with flooding on a historic scale. The storm made landfall near Maunabo midday on September 15. The storm generally moved northwest through the island, exiting on the northwest coast near the town of Mayagüez around 11 p.m. Jeanne passed directly over the towns of Arroyo, Patillas, Guayama and Salinas on its trip over the Commonwealth. San Juan reported a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h), Carolina reported gusts to 71 mph (114 km/h), and rainfall ranged from 5.98 inches (152 mm) in the city to over 24 inches (610 mm) in Vieques. This excessive rainfall resulted in damage to roads, landslides, and collapsed bridges. This resulted in one death and the evacuation of 400 people near the Río Grande de Añasco. A total of eight people were reported dead in Puerto Rico as a result of Jeanne. Damages from the storm were estimated at $169.5 million (2004 USD).

[TCmet]

I don't think a Tropical Storm Warning holds much importance. Heavy showers and winds to 40-50 are not a real big deal. When we get to Hurricane Watch or Warning it is a whole new game but TS warnings, to me; are pretty meaningless

Maybe meaningless to you; not to others.

Jeanne (2004) was a TS and 8 people died because of the storm when it hit Puerto Rico:

Puerto Rico was impacted by tropical storm force winds and heavy rain, with flooding on a historic scale. The storm made landfall near Maunabo midday on September 15. The storm generally moved northwest through the island, exiting on the northwest coast near the town of Mayagüez around 11 p.m. Jeanne passed directly over the towns of Arroyo, Patillas, Guayama and Salinas on its trip over the Commonwealth. San Juan reported a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h), Carolina reported gusts to 71 mph (114 km/h), and rainfall ranged from 5.98 inches (152 mm) in the city to over 24 inches (610 mm) in Vieques. This excessive rainfall resulted in damage to roads, landslides, and collapsed bridges. This resulted in one death and the evacuation of 400 people near the Río Grande de Añasco. A total of eight people were reported dead in Puerto Rico as a result of Jeanne. Damages from the storm were estimated at $169.5 million (2004 USD).

Not meaningless to Haiti either..... believe me, we in Haiti are watching Gaston by the minute. Preparations are beginning now for what could be a hurricane landfall later this week. But even a tropical storm could be potentially deadly---- it's the rain that is the most threatening to the 1.5M people still in IDP camps from the earthquake, not the wind.

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

"HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."

Given the above and the fact that there are traditionally many tourists on the islands over Labor Day, would it not be prudent to post some sort of warning for the N. Leewards? Granted, the tourist bureau isn't fond of unduly upsetting the tourist trade but on the other hand, I would hate to see some folks get a big surprise after being out celebrating later tonight.

I feel certain most of the islanders are well aware of what is happening on their doorsteps.

Lynn

I don't think a Tropical Storm Warning holds much importance. Heavy showers and winds to 40-50 are not a real big deal. When we get to Hurricane Watch or Warning it is a whole new game but TS warnings, to me; are pretty meaningless

Yep. Speaking from personal experience, I’m inclined to agree. The lower end TS force winds (up to about 55 mph) are not really that big of a deal IMO. However, even very weak systems can produce copious amounts of rainfall and perhaps that’s where the focus with ex-Gaston should be at this point.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Maybe meaningless to you; not to others.

Jeanne (2004) was a TS and 8 people died because of the storm when it hit Puerto Rico

I agree. You should never take any sort of tropical system lightly but if you're situated on the US coast it's probably easier to sit out a TS (unless it's called Allison and remains stationary like forever) than somewhere in the Caribbean. The Islands do have a tricky topographical set-up due to being more mountaineous (and some countries are badly deforested), hence they're prone to sudden flashflooding due to intense rainfall which can occur due to a Tropical Despression, Storm or Cane.

[alienstorm]

Put a fork in it - it's done!

[fci]

No, the weather is not meaningless but the concept of a "Tropical Storm Warning" is to me.

Since excessive rain and high wind gusts in tropical thunderstorms can cause problems, would you suggest Tropical Depression Warnings be issues?

Because there are cases where a Tropical Depression's rains decimated locations and caused floods and loss of lives and certainly in a severe thunderstorm associated with a TD, there can be excessive wind gusts too.

Maybe Florida should be put under a Summer Thunderstorm Warning since we get real strong ones too.

Look at people's reaction to Earl.
They think it was a big nothing since it luckily missed a landfall in NC or VA.
But it WAS important to take action because 30-40 miles made a real difference.
I just like to reserve the word "warning" for only when it truly is needed.

Sorry, if I am being too sarcastic and this subject is probably OT to "Remnant Low Gaston", but I am not a big proponent of the concept of TS Warnings or that iit is to call people to action nor do I think they need they be. I just think the word "warning" needs to be reserved for something that is very dangerous and threatening and be the buzz word to call people to action. Immediately.

[Bailey1777]

tcmet havent seen a pros take on gaston in a while. many on here have wanted to sign his death certificate i on the other hand believe he will be a major in the gom what do you think?

[ROCK]

Put a fork in it - it's done!

based on what?

[Macrocane]

The winds are rarely the problem in the Caribbean and Central America most of the damage and deaths are caused by the rains, I will say it is done only if the LLC dissipates.

[Bailey1777]

alienstorm can you back up your statement?

[Cuber]

I don't think a Tropical Storm Warning holds much importance. Heavy showers and winds to 40-50 are not a real big deal. When we get to Hurricane Watch or Warning it is a whole new game but TS warnings, to me; are pretty meaningless

Gustywind,
Having just dealt with Earl and his effects on you, do you think a Tropical Storm Warning would hold much importance to you and your neighbors at this time?

[BatzVI]

And, please remember we are still trying to clean up after Earl. Many people on St. Thomas still don't have power. There is a lot of debris on the sides of roads which can easily take flight and cause more damage. Also, there are many "loose" trees which can easily come down. I, for one, still don't have cable service and only got power that stayed on, on Friday. I believe there should be at least a "Special Tropical Distubance Statement" made.

[TwisterFanatic]

Put a fork in it - it's done!

And what evidence is there of that?