ATL: IGOR - Models
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- Ivanhater
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ATL: IGOR - Models
000
WHXX01 KWBC 071856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100907 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100907 1800 100908 0600 100908 1800 100909 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 20.5W 14.5N 22.7W 14.5N 25.4W 14.2N 28.5W
BAMD 14.1N 20.5W 14.7N 23.0W 15.4N 25.7W 15.9N 28.6W
BAMM 14.1N 20.5W 14.6N 22.5W 15.0N 25.1W 15.2N 28.0W
LBAR 14.1N 20.5W 14.8N 22.2W 15.7N 24.5W 16.6N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100909 1800 100910 1800 100911 1800 100912 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 31.9W 12.5N 38.6W 11.0N 42.1W 11.7N 41.2W
BAMD 16.4N 31.7W 17.1N 37.9W 16.5N 44.0W 15.0N 49.3W
BAMM 15.4N 31.2W 15.5N 37.8W 14.2N 43.7W 12.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.9N 30.7W 20.2N 37.4W 21.0N 42.8W 16.0N 43.7W
SHIP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
DSHP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 17.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 071856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100907 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100907 1800 100908 0600 100908 1800 100909 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 20.5W 14.5N 22.7W 14.5N 25.4W 14.2N 28.5W
BAMD 14.1N 20.5W 14.7N 23.0W 15.4N 25.7W 15.9N 28.6W
BAMM 14.1N 20.5W 14.6N 22.5W 15.0N 25.1W 15.2N 28.0W
LBAR 14.1N 20.5W 14.8N 22.2W 15.7N 24.5W 16.6N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100909 1800 100910 1800 100911 1800 100912 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 31.9W 12.5N 38.6W 11.0N 42.1W 11.7N 41.2W
BAMD 16.4N 31.7W 17.1N 37.9W 16.5N 44.0W 15.0N 49.3W
BAMM 15.4N 31.2W 15.5N 37.8W 14.2N 43.7W 12.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.9N 30.7W 20.2N 37.4W 21.0N 42.8W 16.0N 43.7W
SHIP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
DSHP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 17.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Michael
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
So is this one likely to re-curve? I'm unable to dicipher all the info above but I did see where some other posters were mentioning a weakness at 60w.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The BAMS do the contrary.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
[quote="cycloneye"]The BAMS do the contrary.
[img]http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif
What exactly is the opposite of "recurve"???
SFT
[img]http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif
What exactly is the opposite of "recurve"???
SFT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:cycloneye wrote:The BAMS do the contrary.
[img]http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif
What exactly is the opposite of "recurve"???
SFT
uncurve? looks like a player as model support is all over this one....
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- barometerJane61
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
bvigal wrote:How can the motion be 310degrees?
Probably just imperfect initialization due to it not having a well-defined center yet.
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GFS has been very keen on taking this north of west till about 50W then lifting this into a recurve somewhere between 50-60W.
There is a pretty sizeable upper trough progged as well to be fair but still a little far out to have huge faith in the models.
There is a pretty sizeable upper trough progged as well to be fair but still a little far out to have huge faith in the models.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
18Z GFS a little further west than prior runs...Get's pretty close to the 20/60 mark. This time of year with the changing seasons can make a mid range forecast much more difficult with the more progressive nature of stronger troughs/highs...It certainly appears it may make a run at the northern islands again....
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Re:
Vortex wrote:18Z GFS a little further west than prior runs...Get's pretty close to the 20/60 mark. This time of year with the changing seasons can make a mid range forecast much more difficult with the more progressive nature of stronger troughs/highs...It certainly appears it may make a run at the northern islands again....
yeah, the gfs really strengthens the azores high on this run. its goes straight northwest towards bermuda.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
18zGFS always seems to want to destroy something. I wonder if anyones ever done an analysis to see which model runs 00 6z 12z 18 etc are the most accurate. I've always heard the 00's. Anyone know?
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GO SEMINOLES
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
I'm 99.99% it recurves east of Bermuda. The latest gfs run is most likely a big fluke, there's no way a storm is still heading NW while its near 30N all the way to Maine in mid September. The other models show a quick recurve as well. At least it will be a big ACE producer and it's fairly likely we'll have Igor since most of the models strongly develop it, unlike Ex-Gaston.
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- Wthrman13
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
lonelymike wrote:18zGFS always seems to want to destroy something. I wonder if anyones ever done an analysis to see which model runs 00 6z 12z 18 etc are the most accurate. I've always heard the 00's. Anyone know?
In general, the "synoptic" runs, initialized at 00 and 12 UTC, are more accurate than their 06Z and 18Z counterparts because they contain more upper-air sounding observations in the initial conditions. By convention, these are launched twice a day all over the world near 00 and 12 UTC. Contrary to popular belief, though, the 6Z and 18Z runs still contain plenty of data, including upper air data (satellite derived observations, aircraft obs, etc.), just not the usual upper air balloon soundings.
IIRC, there are studies that show that the the 0Z and 12Z runs are overall the best, but I don't know any off the top of my head; I could go look them up.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
00z Tropical Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 080059
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0059 UTC WED SEP 8 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100908 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100908 0000 100908 1200 100909 0000 100909 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 21.3W 14.4N 23.3W 14.1N 25.9W 13.6N 28.7W
BAMD 14.2N 21.3W 14.7N 23.9W 15.1N 26.7W 15.5N 29.7W
BAMM 14.2N 21.3W 14.6N 23.4W 14.8N 26.0W 15.0N 28.9W
LBAR 14.2N 21.3W 14.8N 23.1W 15.5N 25.6W 16.5N 28.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100910 0000 100911 0000 100912 0000 100913 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 31.5W 13.5N 35.6W 15.5N 38.0W 19.1N 41.9W
BAMD 15.8N 32.8W 16.1N 39.1W 15.9N 45.1W 15.2N 49.6W
BAMM 15.3N 31.9W 15.5N 38.0W 15.5N 43.2W 15.8N 46.7W
LBAR 17.7N 31.8W 19.6N 38.7W 16.3N 41.9W 17.1N 46.8W
SHIP 46KTS 61KTS 71KTS 80KTS
DSHP 46KTS 61KTS 71KTS 80KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 21.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 20.1W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 18.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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