Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Vortex]

noticed that ivan and then would likely turn due west to wnw...

[ColinDelia]

NOGAPS solution. Looking at 850 mb vorticity

[Aric Dunn]

yeah CMC develops it now but is a little slower. I dont think i have ever seen something develop quite the way the models are showing..

[Vortex]

I can't pull up the long range canadian at work but I think last night it sorta had a bend west once getting to around 19-20N.

[ColinDelia]

I dont think i have ever seen something develop quite the way the models are showing..

I was thinking the same thing, Aric.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=10%

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Reminds me of a similar looking system to what Gustav was when it was in that area so we may well have to watch this one closely, esp as we are now getting towards mid month period which is when the threat shoots up in the Caribbean during a La Nina.

[Ivanhater]

Nice, My thread made lemon status

[Bailey1777]

hey guys my graphics arent working today..glitch...can someone give me an overview of where to be looking for developement to begin and long range where it is being speculated by models to head.

thanks darren

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

72 hours

[ColinDelia]

hey guys my graphics arent working today..glitch...can someone give me an overview of where to be looking for developement to begin and long range where it is being speculated by models to head.

thanks darren

Some of the models have it develop near Barbados in the next 36 hours and then head west - arriving in the western or Northwestern Caribbean in 6-8 days.
I think the Euro was strongest at 993 mb near Yucutan but others weaker

[Ivanhater]

144 hours..not all that strong

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

Wrapping up

[Vortex]

I think i will be on either side of cuba in about 7 days...I used the difference between the canadian and the ecm...Nogaps looks reasonable right over cuba for now...

[Vortex]

I think it has the potential to be much stronger than the euro is indicating with a tracklike that...The point is all globals are now indicating development even if weak....This will be the storm to watch!

[Wx_Warrior]

[Vortex]

llc forming just south of barbados....





http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

Ridge completely breaking down in the Gulf, if this were stronger (good possibility) it will be headed into the Gulf