Caribbean - Central America Weather

[bvigal]

...CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.18 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT SAN JUAN/P.R.
YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 0.75 SET IN 1963[/b]

LOL, another precip record for the books this year!

Glad all is well next door in PR. Anybody hear from batzvi yesterday?

Had sustained wind of 22mph yesterday at SJU,STT,UPJ airports, so Gaston still had some energy, despite lack of organization.

Yes, Igor watch has started!!! But don't plan to worry yet with all those miles of ocean and only 4deg of longitude diff!

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST WED SEP 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND NE PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE OR DISSIPATE.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DETACH FROM THE OTC OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND MOVE TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE ON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MFR/FR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DMZ THROUGH
08/21Z...WITH A VATS LIKELY AT CBC. SH RA/TS RA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. THIS SH RA/TS RA ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER
08/22Z...LEAVING SCOT CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLIGHT AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WIND CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR SWELL EVENT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[tropicana]

Regional High Temps and Rainfall
Wed September 8 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.9C 93F 2.4mm ( to 8pm) Thunderstorms at 9pm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.4C 88F 17.0mm ( to 8pm) Thunderstorms ongoing at 8pm
Maraval, West Trinidad 31.7C 89F 15.5mm ( to 930pm) Thunderstorms ongoing

Point Salines, Grenada 30.6C 87F 63.0mm ( to 8pm) Ongoing rain
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.9C 89F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.0C 85F 81.8mm
Long Bay, SE Barbados 30.1C 86F 62.7mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 31.3C 88F 42.7mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 31.1C 88F 2.9mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.2C 90F 18.7mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.7C 89F
VC Bird, Antigua 31.1C 88F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.8C 87F

San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 2.8mm
Kingston, Jamaica 33.4C 92F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.0C 93F trace
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.4C 90F
Havana, Cuba 32.3C 90F 2.0mm

Nassau, Bahamas 32.5C 91F trace
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.4C 85F 0.3mm

Hato, Curacao 31.5C 89F 22.0mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.0C 88F 36.0mm

-justin-

[abajan]

Regional High Temps and Rainfall
Wed September 8 2010 ...
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.0C 85F 81.8mm
Long Bay, SE Barbados 30.1C 86F 62.7mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 31.3C 88F 42.7mm ...

Yep. Heavy showers, accompanied by loud claps of thunder, in Barbados today. And Satellite imagery seems to suggest more is on the way tonight! Read more here.
The latest TWO gives the system affecting us a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

Stay safe and dry abajan and those who live in the SE Caribbean. It looks like something may try to get going down there.

[FireBird]

Hi folks, just a quick update. Like Abajan, my area in the NW has had awesome lightning, thunder, and showers. But as is usually the case, we get the rains last. I've heard that a few areas to the east are in bad shape. I'll await word in the morning. The traffic was the major problem. Word spreads fast down here, and any mention of stormy weather and flooding sends masses of people home at the same time. As a result, traffic in and around the city and the major transport hubs ground to a halt this afternoon. My sister took 2+ hours to make a round trip of less than 20km!
Right now, it's dead quiet. After a strange day, a strange night to follow. Everybody's gotta keep an eye on this sleeper!

[BZSTORM]

I will not rest watching Gaston until I'm convinced he's truely dead or above me, do not need a Iris deja vu, thank you very much. I well remember watching Iris making her way up through the caribbean and following the track to Yucatan till she got to Jamaica, then waking in the next morning to find her headed directly for Belize at full speed. Then off course there is Igor coming next what was NHC thinking with IGOR as a name, if he gets to be anything major the press will have every corney headline going with that name.
BTW anyone heard how Haiti/Dominican is faring with Ex Gaston?? most still don't have any real shelter there in Haiti! Looks to be some serious rain coming down there right now.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Lets keep watching the SE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF PR WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF THE WINDWARDS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND PASS S OF PR SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...
MAY STILL SEE AN ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA ACROSS SW PR AS WEAK PRES
GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR A STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE UNDER A ENE
STEERING FLOW AND AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT AS RIDGE ERODES.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS NOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF
TRINIDAD WHICH MODELS HAVE INDICATED SOME SORT OF WEAK TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RELIABLE MODELS ECMWF
AND GFS KEEP THIS SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT.
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECWMF
FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECWMF BRINGING SOME GOOD
RAINS SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS THIS MODEL HAS OUTPERFORMED THE REST OF
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS THIS HURRICANE SEASON. MODELS HAVE ALSO
LAG BEHIND WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES AS WAS THE CASE WITH FAST
MOVING STORMS LIKE GASTON...COLIN AND FIONA. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS WE ARE VERY NEAR
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON AND TC DEVELOPMENT
CAN TAKE PLACE ABOUT ANYWHERE AND VERY QUICKLY. OF NOTE IS THE
UNRELIABLE MODELS CANADIAN GLOBAL AND NAM INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
ACTUALLY MOVING ACROSS PR ON SUN. GIVEN THAT THE H25 HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND UPPER LVL TROUGH XPCD TO CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH IS NOT OUT THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP FURTHER NORTH THAT WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 09/14Z...WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TISX...AND TIST. BTW 09/16Z-09/22Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND POSSIBLE TJPS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT THROUGH SAT BUT EXPECTED TO BUILD
AGAIN TO 4-6 FT SUN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRES PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR CWF AND NHC FORECASTS FOR
ANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES TO FCST.

[FireBird]

Luis, thanks for this update. The slow movement is my greatest fear. Not much in my area still. Thunder from 4am, and moderate showers, but with this majority of convection to my east, looks like we're in for flooding.

[caribsue]

Regional High Temps and Rainfall
Wed September 8 2010 ...
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.0C 85F 81.8mm
Long Bay, SE Barbados 30.1C 86F 62.7mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 31.3C 88F 42.7mm ...

Yep. Heavy showers, accompanied by loud claps of thunder, in Barbados today. And Satellite imagery seems to suggest more is on the way tonight! Read more here.
The latest TWO gives the system affecting us a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

And its still raining here this morning in Barbados in fact it rained for most of the night.

[caribsue]

Luis, thanks for this update. The slow movement is my greatest fear. Not much in my area still. Thunder from 4am, and moderate showers, but with this majority of convection to my east, looks like we're in for flooding.

Hey FireBird sound from your earlier post you are in the North of the island. I am in the south and although no thunder one of the fields that I can see in the Graeme Hall area is flooded.

[Gustywind]

To all my friend in the Southern Windwards be aware and vigilant. Let's follow what could happen with this feature as we're approaching closely the peak of the hurricane season.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/grenada.shtml

Wow1 That was a storm
By "Sally Stalker" <stalker at spiceisle.com>
Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 00:55:05 -0400

I think the ghost of ” Ivan “came to knock on our door to day! Yesterday, the sixth birthday passed reasonably coolly with rather lovely views up the Grenadines for a change and there was a sweet breeze. We were rather sombre, rather like on Armistice Day, remembering the bad, the good and the funny bits. The old lady of Soubise whose house was pushed into the middle of the road and who charged us a dollar to pass because “you done passin’ thro me garden”. We paid! Ten out of ten for entrepreneurial skills. The jolly gals Himself took to the river to wash what was left of their clothes, collecting them when they were through! The ten strong men from Rose Hill with nothing left of their own who came to help lift a saturated carpet to the sun.....only wanting a cold beer for their toils. And so the stories came back to us!

Well today all hell broke out! It got darker and darker and the clouds grew more and more menacing. Oo er, I thought, this looks ominous. I’m a bit of a panicky sort of person after living through three major hurricanes and I soon had the household in an uproar. Himself, a cool customer was on the phone to a friend in the US when the first horrendous flash smacked into some trees in front of the house...well, allow for slight exaggeration here but it was numbingly scary! I screamed at Himself to get off the... I’ll omit the rest. Why do men have so little commonsense? I pulled the plug on the electricity just as the second flash hit the other side of the house and great cracking rolls of thunder hit at the same time. I know what that means, sez I as I leap into a corner with shaking dogs. It’s overhead! Verro, the helper and himself were looking at me in disbelief. Well I suppose I didn’t present a totally good image of myself; cowering on the floor in a corner scaring the dogs and rattling the furniture. It passed rather quickly and I was soon comforting myself with a mild libation. The Scots knew a thing or two!

It is still unsettled and we have had a great deal of rain. The mossies and sand flies are out in force and the surf is high but no breeze. Thank you Ivan, we are being vigilant and as Jacquie said, are much more aware of what is going on around us.

Thanks to everyone for the reports and good luck to us all!

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

Overcast with very heavy rain here now. Shutting down computer for fear of lightning damage.

[Gustywind]

Overcast with very heavy rain here now. Shutting down computer for fear of lightning damage.

Be safe and dry Abajan!

[msbee]

be careful down there!

Gusty, I just sent you a PM

[bvigal]

Keeping an eye on conditions you guys in S. Windwards are having. Looks like you are in for a long haul of rain, and the tstorms to go with it. Stay safe, indoors and dry! Look forward to hearing your reports.
MFrance radar

[abajan]

No rain now but many streets are flooded. Understandable, considering the amount of rain we had both yesterday and this morning. I’ll keep you guys informed when I can.

[tropicana]

Continuing heavy showers and thunderstorms in the southern windward islands overnight and this morning have produced additional astonishing rain totals.

Since 8pm last night, Crown Point Tobago has seen more than 28mm of additional rain.
Piarco Airport, Central Trinidad with a series of thunderstorms and periods of rain overnight saw 90mm of rain in the 12 hour period to 8am

Rockley, Christchurch in Southern Barbados an additional 62mm of rain (on top of the almost 43mm on Wednesday). Most of this rain has come this morning. No wonder the flooding reported by abajan.
Long Bay, SE Barbados near the airport saw another 42mm on top of nearly 64mm of rain on Wednesday.

Point Salines, Grenada another 18mm of rain in just 6 hours to 8am, now the airport there has seen over 80mm in the last 24 hours.

Hato Airport, Curacao has also been getting into the adverse weather. A thunderstorm Wednesday produced 22mm of rain at the airport, and another thunderstorm overnight dropped an additional 15mm of rain.


-justin-