ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Igor looks really great for a developing system and he's already quite large. Obviously the LLC is not in the dead center of the convective ball but I doubt it's as far east as depicted.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, came back and it continues to move SW. I'd be surprised if the LLC didn't drop SW into the deeper convection.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 0115z.

[AJC3]

Wow, came back and it continues to move SW. I'd be surprised if the LLC didn't drop SW into the deeper convection.

One thing I'm really disappointed at is the fact that SSD uses, IMO, a poor color table for their IR2 tropical floater sectors compared to the really good one that they have for the regular sectors. I'm sure you've seen this too, but in case you haven't...

IR2 color table I like:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

IR2 color table I don't like:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I wish they'd switch the floaters back over to the blue table. Maybe I'll call up their webmaster and make a suggestion next week.

[Aquawind]

That is a most impressive ball of convection considering there is some shear still about and the llc is somewhat displaced! They have to bump it up at the next advisory..it's been persistant, consolidated and deep convection..looks to be approaching cane strength and soon will be at this rate..not much more than visuals I understand but, the visuals are very impressive.

[gatorcane]

Thoughts on what the nhc will do with the track at 11?

[alan1961]

Well the ridging he's under he's not gaining any latitude
and he's pulling in moisture from the ITCZ so maybe a short
term tug from there.

[AJC3]

Thoughts on what the nhc will do with the track at 11?

Probably not much change IMO. Without any of the 00Z globals available by 10 PM, it'll be mainly an update of the previous package. Stinks that there's a dearth of M/I passes right now with all the POES birds that are out there. The last several passes have all missed Igor.

[SouthFLTropics]

Thoughts on what the nhc will do with the track at 11?

I think they will have to bump the track to the SW initially and maybe the end point will be further South and West of where it was at 5:00PM. Other than that I don't think that their overall thinking will change much...If the models continue to trend further west then maybe we will see some more significant shifts by tomorrow night at this time.

SFT

[Aquawind]

Not much of an adjustment at this point..It has moved N yesterday I think..so they will wait until the AM visable to clarify the structure and and models adjustments before making any serious adjustments imo.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think a reasonable question to ask is what, if any, affect will 92L (future Julia) have on the eventual track of Igor.

[AJC3]

Thoughts on what the nhc will do with the track at 11?

I think they will have to bump the track to the SW initially and maybe the end point will be further South and West of where it was at 5:00PM. Other than that I don't think that their overall thinking will change much...If the models continue to trend further west then maybe we will see some more significant shifts by tomorrow night at this time.

SFT

The problem is that the 00Z BT position is actually at a higher LAT (17.0N) than the forecast 06Z position (16.8N) and near the LAT of the SAT 18Z position (17.1N). So even in the short term, I can't see them going south of the previous track, even if they started Igor off a little south of 17.0N.

[SouthFLTropics]

Thoughts on what the nhc will do with the track at 11?

I think they will have to bump the track to the SW initially and maybe the end point will be further South and West of where it was at 5:00PM. Other than that I don't think that their overall thinking will change much...If the models continue to trend further west then maybe we will see some more significant shifts by tomorrow night at this time.

SFT

The problem is that the 00Z BT position is actually at a higher LAT (17.0N) than the forecast 06Z position (16.8N) and near the LAT of the SAT 18Z position (17.1N). So even in the short term, I can't see them going south of the previous track, even if they start Igor off a little south of 17.0N.

That is a good point...For consistency they will probably do exactly what you have said. With that being said if the current motion continues and we get a center relocation I could very well imagine we may see a significant shift sometime tomorrow...

[cycloneye]

Tony,they wait 12 hours to adjust a track right?

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, came back and it continues to move SW. I'd be surprised if the LLC didn't drop SW into the deeper convection.

One thing I'm really disappointed at is the fact that SSD uses, IMO, a poor color table for their IR2 tropical floater sectors compared to the really good one that they have for the regular sectors. I'm sure you've seen this too, but in case you haven't...

IR2 color table I like:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

IR2 color table I don't like:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I wish they'd switch the floaters back over to the blue table. Maybe I'll call up their webmaster and make a suggestion next week.

yeah they changed it from the blue table too this new one last year or the year before.. not sure why but its terrible.. the RGB is better then the shortwave ...

[lonelymike]

I think a reasonable question to ask is what, if any, affect will 92L (future Julia) have on the eventual track of Igor.

I don't think much of anything. I think Julia will be cleared out by the time Igor shows up at his closest approach to the islands. JMO

[AJC3]

Tony,they wait 12 hours to adjust a track right?

Luis, they'll need to look at the full suite of 00Z guidance, and get a better center fix from M/I data, so if there was to be any sort of track adjustment, it wouldn't be until 5 AM.

[lonelymike]

Does the NHC post a schedule of who writes the advisories?

[AJC3]

Does the NHC post a schedule of who writes the advisories?

Not that I'm aware of, unless you count the work schedule posted on the wall at the office.

[Aric Dunn]

Does the NHC post a schedule of who writes the advisories?

Not that I'm aware of, unless you count the work schedule posted on the wall at the office.

Rock Paper Scissors ? lol