ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I don't think it's turning north, so my money is on Mexico, maybe south of Tampico.

Another wasted name then.





Sarcasm folks.

[gatorcane]

the good news is that it seems the pattern we are in prevents systems in the Caribbean from getting too far north and systems in the Atlantic from getting too far west. So that means as far as the United States is concerned this is the best setup you can hope for to prevent landfalling systems at it couldn't have come at a better time, right at the peak of the season. The next best would be no systems out there. This pattern will likely change come the end of September and into October.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Northward progress easy to see on water vapor.

[ronjon]

the good news is that it seems the pattern we are in prevents systems in the Caribbean from getting too far north and systems in the Atlantic from getting too far east. So that means as far as the United States is concerned this is the best setup you can hope for to prevent landfalling systems at it couldn't have come at a better time, right at the peak of the season. The next best would be no systems out there. This pattern will likely change come the end of September and into October.

I wouldn't get too overconfident on the pattern yet - these things can change in a few days, especially as we move deep into September. Given the extensive troughiness over the SW Atlantic, it might be even money that 92L gets tugged north of the GA where it will then move W-NW under the building ridge. That probably wouldn't be good for S FL or the keys.

[Sanibel]

Obviously better potential for development than Gaston. I wonder if the MJO just went favorable again?

[dwsqos2]

Meh...there still isn't that much going on at the surface. I remain unimpressed.

[Sanibel]

There's dry air around it, however I think this one might be aided by scooting along towards the west Caribbean under a ridge which will probably help aid development with a system that has probably gotten over the hump unlike Gaston. Wouldn't surprise me if it pulsed-off again. This is what I thought Gaston was doing.

[psyclone]

that's funny coming from someone that forecast one tropical storm for the entire month of sept. this thing looks like it is going to develop and i suspect the consensus estimate of yuc to mex via boc will come to fruition.

[Aric Dunn]

well the center location is very difficult to locate at this time but using radar from last night till now you can follow the weak circ generally heading WNW until it leaves the radar range. taking into account that and the fact that buoy 42059 ( 15N 67W) has a NE wind the radar and satellite ... I estimate the center somewhere from 14-15N and 64-65W generally moving WNW but could be More NW. Also at this point with any increase in convection the center could easily reform.

[lonelymike]

I don't think it's turning north, so my money is on Mexico, maybe south of Tampico.

Another wasted name then.

Why is this a wasted name? If this storm ramps up and hits Haiti,The Yucatan, and Mexico as predicted I don't think the people affected will think its a wasted name. Now if on the other hand this storm hit Minnesota methinks your tune would change.



Sarcasm folks.

[Hurricane]

The bad news is that TVCN is the right outlier.

[caneman]

Wow Gatorcane,

You 've went from in previous years to everything will develop and maybe hit the U.S. to now nothing will. I would caution you against that as these storms in the later part of the season will be more apt to get pulled poleward. Further, the pattern can and does change. Lots of activity going and that in and of itself is concerning.

[Sambucol]

Is it fair to assume that 92L is a done deal about landfall over the Yucatan and then into Mexico? Is there any chance this one could get into the GOM and threaten the US coastline?

[lonelymike]

The bad news is that TVCN is the right outlier.

Actually the HRWF is the right outlier.

[caneman]

Depends on which model you trust. Absolutely it can still get into the GOM.

[lonelymike]

Wow Gatorcane,

You 've went from in previous years to everything will develop and maybe hit the U.S. to now nothing will. I would caution you against that as these storms in the later part of the season will be more apt to get pulled poleward. Further, the pattern can and does change. Lots of activity going and that in and of itself is concerning.

GC is in denial because Tebow is now gone It's led to major mood swings and depression among several of my Gator friends especially after that Brantley disaster on Saturday. Might explain GC's swings.

[caneman]

Hope Gatorcane didn't take it as an attack. I only check in once in a while and none during the off season and couldn't believe the change from pro development to no development. Still love ya' Gatorcane. Ya' gotta let Tebow go. Go Noles!!

[cycloneye]

Can we return to the topic in hand and is about 92L? We have a sports forum where you can talk all about football. Thank you for your cooperation.

[hurr3]

What is JB thinking about movement of this system??? Is he thinking it will be a US strike?

[Steve]

>>What is JB thinking about movement of this system??? Is he thinking it will be a US strike?

http://www.accuweather.com/probenefits.asp



But as of the 8th, they thought 3 hurricanes next week, 2 of which are US threats. I think one is a Mexican threat, 1 is a recurve but possible close to the Outer Banks threat and one is yet to come.

Oh, and Go Noles!