Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[ColinDelia]

(EDIT: This thread originally discussed what has now become two separate areas and might be confusing at times)

Been mentioned a few times so thought I'd start a thread. I would normally think it is too long term
however you can trace it back to a wave that should reach coast in just a few days - and there has
been some interest in where the GFS develops this from.

Here is what the 0z GFS has at 384 hours. In Western Caribbean


A little earlier in the Eastern Caribbean at 240 hours


Now here is the 850 mb vorticity at 162 hours. You can see it halfway across Atlantic. (Just an weak open wave at this point)


And here is the 850 mb vorticity with it on the coast at 66 hours

[KWT]

ECM spots this area too though keeps it a wave till its NE of the Caribbean, Igor takes a little longer to get out compared to the GFS and so it keeps the wave behind on a slightly more northerly track then the GFS.

We are getting close to that time of the year now where the Caribbean tends to get more development in La Nina so any track into Caribbean needs to be kept an eye on really.

GFS has been showing this solution for a long ole time as well...

[ColinDelia]

Awfully long range but just showing where this comes from as it looks like it appears out of the blue on the surface maps

6z GFS

240 hours. Approaching Caribbean


312 hours. Eastern Caribbean


360 hours


384 hours

[cycloneye]

What,it moves north towards Puerto Rico? But the good news is long range and of course, being that way, it will change a lot.

[KWT]

GFS track for the 06z reminds me of a 1995 type system again, its shown a couple of times a set-up like that in the last few months...

Still I'm having a hard time with that particular solution coming off...It's rare to have that track in a La Nina and only really 1995 had tracks that looked like that.

The 00z GFS was far more realistic though that run maybe a little too far west...very soon the biggest threats shift eastwards.

[ColinDelia]

0z Canadian at 228 hours.

[Vortex]

Colin, Thanks for starting this thread. I've been watching closely the long range the last few days. We now have agreement by the big 3 in the long ranger that something may form. The GFS has been very consistant since Friday nights run on formation of a storm heading through the carribean...A few more days with this consistancy from the GFS and others and it's usually a lock. Well see.

[weatherwindow]

colin....good eyes....the 00z and to a lesser degree the 06z describe this season's first(perhaps only) honest to goodness low rider...that 10deg N traverse may be the only way for a CV system to enter the caribbean, much less reach 80W....this could be the last wave with that opportunity given the late date....will follow this one with interest

[ColinDelia]

Pretty sure this is PGI45L

[BigA]

12Z GFS looks to develop this (I think its this) in the long term.

I think a late September low-rider has a pretty good chance of happening, especially since conditions in the east Atlantic will start getting less favorable in a week or so, so the waves may form farther west, as WxMan57 has been saying for a while.

Of course lated in the season the troughs get stronger, so the low riders may get pulled north into the GOM, but this is only climatology.

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps also picks it up in 5 days...So we have most Globals on it...could be a significant player long-term...



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ColinDelia]

Yeah that is it BigA. Makes it to Gulf of Mexico on the long range on that 12z GFS run.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS

[KWT]

The interesting thing is the 12z ECM does show a weak wave in the same sort of position the GFS has it at by 240hrs, so its quite possible that they have the same broad evolution, though the GFS looks more agressive.

It looks very possible to me, though at that time of the year troughing is more possible and the threat to the Gulf starts to increase big time IMO, esp further east.

[ColinDelia]

Convection sure increased today.

[Vortex]

lookin good, nogaps develops it in about 4 days at a very low latitide...



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[BigA]

18Z GFS takes this all the way accross the Basin, the Yucatan, and into Mexico. Of course this is of little importance now; what is importance is the GFS's persistence.

[Vortex]

check this out..absoloutely amazing...this is the wave and most impressive I've seen all year at this point.




http://sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=af ... &type=loop

[Vortex]

and another look....



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... ation.html

[HURAKAN]

Karl or Lisa, no question about it!