ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[plasticup]

... As far as the size goes, it will expand once it begins its first EWRC which could be as early as tomorrow once the strengthening phase is over.

It’s already expanding and to my knowledge, there has been no EWRC. At 5 AM hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds extended 25 miles and 115 miles respectively from the center. Now hurricane force winds extend 35 miles and tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles.

Still very small though. It looks kinda goofy with such a large eye.

[Gustywind]

[hurricaneCW]

They eye is not that big at all. Obviously it might look that way because the system is relatively small, but the eye would look normal on a slightly large hurricane.

[emeraldislencguy]

very impressive the way it has grown
we are so fortunate about the trough set up this season
how close do yall think it will come to the easten us

[bvigal]

Get a load of those wind radii.

[plasticup]

Get a load of those wind radii.
http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/8527/wtnt0117.gif

Woah, that'll help it's ACE!

[plasticup]

very impressive the way it has grown
we are so fortunate about the trough set up this season
how close do yall think it will come to the easten us

Right now, the model consensus is "not very close," but the trend has been moving westward. It looks a likely recurve but it is too early to tell.

[masaji79]

Really taking on the look of a major hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:13 N Lon : 45:36:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +9.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Aric Dunn]

There really is no reason that Igor could not get to CAT 5 ... plenty of Heat content low shear and its a relatively small system

[CrazyC83]

It looks like Dr. Frankenstein has spawned a menace in all his glory...we all feared the name Igor all along...

[Just Joshing You]

Im thinking Igor will definitely be a Category 4 hurricane by 11 PM tonight, Category 5 by 11 PM tomorrow if conditions are right (no EWRC to complete etc)

I hope this is a Fish and not Earl 2.0. Earl 1.0 brought some heavy rains, winds to NS and there was considerable damage. 2.0 would be bad.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like Dr. Frankenstein has spawned a menace in all his glory...we all feared the name Igor all along...

yeah a menace for ships and maybe Bermuda.... and well large waves on the east coast and the islands.. which makes me happy Because i get to surf.... but not so much for swimmers and life guards..

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is at least 105 kt right now looking at it. I'd consider putting out a Special Advisory and upgrading it now...

[Aric Dunn]

I'd say it is at least 105 kt right now looking at it. I'd consider putting out a Special Advisory and upgrading it now...

no reason for a special advisory its clearly in RI and why put out a special advisory just to raise the winds at 5 again. better wait till 5 and make it 115 or more.

[cycloneye]

Someone at Wiki made an error on the ACE 1500z update and has 95kts instead of 90kts.That is why I haven't updated the Atlantic ACE as of 1500z at the Talking Tropics thread. Crazy,you do updates there?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2010_ ... /ACE_calcs

[plasticup]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.4 6.4

Wait wait wait. Cat 4?

[CrazyC83]

Corrected the ACE. I sometimes do that but not always.

[Aric Dunn]

well thats interesting run by the CMC...

[dixiebreeze]

12/1145 UTC 17.7N 44.8W T4.5/4.5 IGOR -- Atlantic