ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

Category 5 · #881 Postby **Category 5** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:27 am

Just wow.

Gustywind · #882 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:29 am

Gustywind wrote:000
AXNT20 KNHC 131152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 13/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 745 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
20N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W
IN BANDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE.

$$
MT

Anyone notice the mistake of the latest TWD concerning the longitude of Igor??? 44,4W??? Are they tired, where are they??? :roll:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 130832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 48.8WABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

KWT · #883 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:29 am

Wow is the right word to use with this one Cat-5, looks amazing right now on that image, really deep looking eye with an utterly classic stadium effect.

ps, very interesting to see Bermuda actually IS in the cone at day 5...just!

Almost certainly going to get recon at some point with this one if Bermuda is still in the cone in a few days.

#884 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:39 am

12z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091312, , BEST, 0, 176N, 492W, 130, 933, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains at 130 kts.Moving 265 degrees west.

#885 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:41 am

Igor is just another member of the "I" nobility in the Atlantic. We all know that I storms tend to be monsters.

Igor is the strongest I storm since Ivan.

#886 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:43 am

Magnificent!!

#887 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:44 am

Moving west at 265 degrees

LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 49.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

#888 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:45 am

Latest

KWT · #889 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:50 am

Very interesting Cycloneye, its actually heading slightly WSW really, 265 for an actual motion is most interesting though at this stage it doesn't mean too much unless it sustains.

Still below 18N as well, lets see how long that lasts....

Amazing looking hurricane.

plasticup · #890 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:53 am

KWT wrote:Wow Igor is looking a stunner again this morning, I'd argue it probably looks better now then it did even yesterday...I'd say this maybe very close to a 5 right now, I do think its just about at its peak...for now...

The cloud tops are slightly warmer, the wind field is expanding, the eye is widening, and the northeastern convective bands have been cut off.

If it wasn't Cat 5 yesterday, I don't see how it can be now.

Scorpion · #891 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:53 am

If thats not a borderline 5 I don't know what is. Needs to be at least 135 kt.

Gustywind · #892 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:54 am

Igor definitely on the screen, continues to travel west and approaching the Lesser Antilles....

plasticup · #893 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:55 am

Scorpion wrote:If thats not a borderline 5 I don't know what is. Needs to be at least 135 kt.

That's what I thought yesterday, but it doesn't look as good now as it did then.

KWT · #894 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:58 am

I disagree PC, the cloud tops warming slightly is true but the eye looks tighter to me right now and the stadium effect is much more pronounced now with the eye looking much more defined IMO...Microwave also shows IMO a stronger eyewall, yesterday the NE Eyewall was actually a little weaker then the rest but that has now gone...

Probably not stronger then yesterday but it looks better...but thats totally subjective of course!

#895 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:01 am

Still moving a tick below 270 I see...

I know this is only the **Current** steering flow and will change, but he looks to miss this first trof for sure. Funny how most the models had this lifting out already from a couple of days ago. I still think this misses the US, but it always drives me nuts how people see where this is and just think oh....climo says fish, sure it usually does, but I hate the climo card. Side note...a lot of people use climo in all forecasting and its not always good to use that.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

plasticup · #896 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:02 am

KWT wrote:I disagree PC, the cloud tops warming slightly is true but the eye looks tighter to me right now and the stadium effect is much more pronounced now with the eye looking much more defined IMO...Microwave also shows IMO a stronger eyewall, yesterday the NE Eyewall was actually a little weaker then the rest but that has now gone...

Probably not stronger then yesterday but it looks better...but thats totally subjective of course!

The eye looks bigger on IR imagery, but I see what you mean about the stronger stadium effect.

Macrocane · #897 Postby **Macrocane** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:07 am

The ring of deep convection is closed again and the structure is more symmetric right now than a few hours ago, I disagree with those that say it's less organized.

plasticup · #898 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:08 am

Can someone explain to my why SHIPS is rating this a marginally annular storm? Which of the criteria is it passing?

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

summersquall · #899 Postby **summersquall** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:10 am

Thanks everyone for sharing all the images of Igor. WOW!

"Good show Igor, now steer clear of any and all land."

KWT · #900 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:16 am

plasticup wrote:The eye looks bigger on IR imagery, but I see what you mean about the stronger stadium effect.

I suspect the reason the eye looks bigger may well be partly because of that stadium effect, I'm pretty sure the eye is tighter on most of the IR images.

ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Who is online