ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

for a sub 940 pressure you have to look at steering 200-700hpa layer

though not that big of a difference in 500-850....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

is it me or is the trof look to be flattening out some?if that the case that monster high in the GOM which is pushing 92 into Mexico could fill the void..if he got trapped under that then it would really be bad....of course I am just speaking hypothetically...

[BrianD]

For all the talk about the direction in which this is moving, it's all academic except for Bermuda and perhaps the Canadian Maratimes. There is almost no conceivable way that Igor could flout the models and reach the east coast. The synoptic set-up just isn't there. Right now the debate is whether the farthest west it gets is 63, 65, or 67.

Sorry but your "almost no conceivable way" Statement makes no Sense in fact I've seen many many a Storms flout models many! nothing is foolproof and weather does crazy things all the time, even pro-mets still have trouble understanding how it flout's the obvious and does whatever it may seem to want in certain instances. Sure it's a good probability it will follow models but is never 100% guaranteed and in my mind I don't even trust models but maybe 50% of the time because of the margin of error and the inability to predict what mother nature is going to do. There are many systems that people say will never reach the east coast do to the setup and mother nature has made them look really ignorant.

Some say a butterfly fluttering it's wings in africa can cause a hurricane to churn up, also keep in mind any number of the many tiny things such as this can cause many different outcomes we will never be foolproof when it comes to predicting mother nature's plans or her wrath and must always be prepared for the worst

[BigB0882]

It is pretty foolish to say this can't possible bust all the models. So much, SO MUCH, is taken into account when predicting a track for a storm. All it takes is one thing to be missed, overlooked, etc for the dominos to start falling and when one goes down, well, so do the rest. Big errors are probably becoming less and less frequent with better technology and more research but misses can and will continue to occur. Hopefully this wont be one of them.

[plasticup]

Some say a butterfly fluttering it's wings in africa can cause a hurricane to churn up, also keep in mind any number of the many tiny things such as this can cause many different outcomes we will never be foolproof when it comes to predicting mother nature's plans or her wrath and must always be prepared for the worst

You are talking about chaos theory, which simply doesn't apply on these time scales. The 2-3 day pattern will not be determined by butterflies in Africa, although the 15-day outlook might be.

This close to the trough, the behavior is very very predictable.

[rog]

That trough looks to be flattening out and missing Igor. If I lived in the NE islands I would start getting prepared, better safe than sorry.

This not an official forecast just my personal opinion.

[brunota2003]

2003, Hurricane Isabel formed and started moving west as Hurricane Fabian moved through a weakness and up over Bermuda. Many thought for sure Isabel would turn up that same weakness and also hit Bermuda...she didn't, and instead plowed headlong into the Mid-Atlantic. Now, the NHC forecast never showed her turning out to sea (in fact, those forecasts were one of the best forecasts ever by the NHC, with Isabel hitting only 20 or 30 miles west of where the 5 day forecast point first came ashore in NC), but the cautionary tale remains the same...never say never!

[BigA]

I hear a lot of people saying that the trough is flattening out. How would one tell? Would water vapor imagery be best?

[hurricaneCW]

Well the trough is not all that strong to begin with, I don't see too much digging with it, but it's still most likely enough to start lifting Igor more to the north very soon.

[plasticup]

2003, Hurricane Isabel formed and started moving west as Hurricane Fabian moved through a weakness and up over Bermuda. Many thought for sure Isabel would turn up that same weakness and also hit Bermuda...she didn't, and instead plowed headlong into the Mid-Atlantic. Now, the NHC forecast never showed her turning out to sea (in fact, those forecasts were one of the best forecasts ever by the NHC, with Isabel hitting only 20 or 30 miles west of where the 5 day forecast point first came ashore in NC), but the cautionary tale remains the same...never say never!

If the NHC absolutely nailing Isabel's forecast is your best cautionary tale, I think we're pretty safe

I know, I know, you meant that the models missed Isabel; I'm just teasing. But the models have improved a lot since then and the NHC still uses its own judgment. They would disregard the models if they saw cause.

[Nj612]

Welll...it's getting pretty close...i mean it went from going north on Sunday...then to Monday am..then to Monday pm...now Tuesday AM..like im not expecting them to pin point exactly when its going to happen because they can't, but i mean come on , my confidence in their track has been going downhill. Not going to change my feeling until i see moving WNW.

[cycloneye]

Welll...it's getting pretty close...i mean it went from going north on Sunday...then to Monday am..then to Monday pm...now Tuesday AM..like im not expecting them to pin point exactly when its going to happen because they can't, but i mean come on , my confidence in their track has been going downhill. Not going to change my feeling until i see moving WNW.

Do you live in the Eastern Caribbean islands? If so,there is a thread for those who live in the Caribbean & Centralamerica at U.S & Caribbean Weather forum, where you can post weather observations from your area. Link to thread is below this post at signature.

About the west motion that continues, lets see when the expected turn will occur, but is expected to go north of the Leewards,but you never know so stay tuned.

[brunota2003]

2003, Hurricane Isabel formed and started moving west as Hurricane Fabian moved through a weakness and up over Bermuda. Many thought for sure Isabel would turn up that same weakness and also hit Bermuda...she didn't, and instead plowed headlong into the Mid-Atlantic. Now, the NHC forecast never showed her turning out to sea (in fact, those forecasts were one of the best forecasts ever by the NHC, with Isabel hitting only 20 or 30 miles west of where the 5 day forecast point first came ashore in NC), but the cautionary tale remains the same...never say never!

If the NHC absolutely nailing Isabel's forecast is your best cautionary tale, I think we're pretty safe

I know, I know, you meant that the models missed Isabel; I'm just teasing. But the models have improved a lot since then and the NHC still uses its own judgment. They would disregard the models if they saw cause.

Haha okay, okay, that is true...but still, it remains the same to never say never, ESPECIALLY in the tropics!

[dixiebreeze]

A very scary view of Igor and the Islands:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-rb.html

[BigB0882]

Looks like it may have started to step up in the last shot. It could be nothing, I would need to see a lot more but I hope for everyone's sake, it begins heading on a more N path soon!

[ROCK]

he's stair stepping now it seems....hint of a north of west...

[Florida1118]

Looks like it may have started to step up in the last shot. It could be nothing, I would need to see a lot more but I hope for everyone's sake, it begins heading on a more N path soon!

Ya the very last frame looks like a WNW turn but gotta wait for a few more frames. Hopefully this is our Illusive WNW turn.

[shah8]

Okay guys, that's the barest hint. Let's all not get eyestrain...

[brunota2003]

The following day...

"The number of people coming to the hospitals nationwide for eye problems more than tripled today, unexpectedly. Doctors are calling it hurricanswobble fever, which apparently not only rises tensions among those affected, but also causes blurry vision for up to two weeks after prognosis. Our local doctor had this to say:

'We usually only see this, uh, fever during the summer months. One of our colleagues believes it is caused by people staring at their computer screens while a hurricane is in progress, straining their eyes to detect every little wobble possible. This is very unhealthy-'

There you have it, and now back to you there at the office, Igor."

[gixxer]

11pm update seems to have moved the cone east a bit?

[pcolaman]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... TYPE=modis