ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

geez if we continue at this rate with 92l becoming karl and the tropical activity heading towards the caribbean and the gulf, we could end up with a landfall in every state in the gulf. wouldnt that be something?

[srainhoutx]

Plenty of SW and WSW winds.

[cwachal]

closed circulation with lots of 40+ knt winds I think we maybe as high as 50 knts with their being a 57 and a 48 knt readings... 1000 mb pressure reading

[SouthFloridawx]

[CrazyC83]

Definitely we have Tropical Storm Karl. I'd put it at 45 kt (FL winds support 35, SFMR 55).

[Aric Dunn]

This is enough to make it a TS. SFMR

Im sure there are plenty higher winds too
183100 1753N 08329W 9693 00321 0055 +223 +222 247029 030 036 009 00

[cycloneye]

So we have a Tropical Storm in our hands?

[tolakram]

Right smack in the middle of the convection blob. I suppose we should have seen this coming, since even though it crashed every day the circulation looked unusually strong for nothing.

[CrazyC83]

So we have a Tropical Storm in our hands?

Almost certainly. All available data supports such. SFMR was as high as 57 but that seems a bit high.

[brunota2003]

I know I saw SFMR with a reading of 40 knots with a 00, so definitely at least 40 knots. Tight circulation means it can ramp up easily if it can keep convection over it...looks like we might just get a special advisory out from the NHC, since watches and warnings have to go up as soon as they make some phone calls.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Frank2]

Per the low to our south, there's a convergence line that has unexpectedly set up over us (South Florida) and busted the local NWS forecast for today, and seems to be due to the high to the north and the developing low to the south - over the past 3 hours we've had 4 inches of rain in the immediate area...

Very, very fortunate that 92L has developed only hours before reaching land, considering it's long existence in the Caribbean...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Take care,

Frank

[cycloneye]

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040
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201009141841
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


No surprise to us, but just to make it as official.

[CrazyC83]

I know I saw SFMR with a reading of 40 knots with a 00, so definitely at least 40 knots. Tight circulation means it can ramp up easily if it can keep convection over it...looks like we might just get a special advisory out from the NHC, since watches and warnings have to go up as soon as they make some phone calls.

It would be fairly late for such, since it would come only 2 hours from the scheduled advisory. But they might still do that.

[HURAKAN]

No surprises from the RECON reports. Exactly what I expected!

[CrazyC83]

Will we get a Special Advisory, a TCU on a new storm or just wait until 5 pm?

[Vortmax1]

Definitely looks like they will have to go straight to Tropical Storm Karl.
Circulation is there and the windage is definitely there based on what I am seeing on the current RECON investigation.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 13, 2010091418, , BEST, 0, 181N, 836W, 35, 1001, TS

35 kt seems awfully conservative IMO...

[HURAKAN]

The NE quadrant should be more interesting!

[SouthFloridawx]

AL, 13, 2010091418, , BEST, 0, 181N, 836W, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 10, 10,