Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ColinDelia]

Question: How often is the GFS run/released?

Every 6 hours

[South Texas Storms]

Question: How often is the GFS run/released?

4 times a day. every 6 hours. at 11:30 pm/am and 5:30 pm/am every day central time.

[Ivanhater]

Question: How often is the GFS run/released?

4 times a day, every 6 hours.

00z run starts at 10:30 PM central

06z starts at 4:30 AM central

12z starts at 10:30 AM central

18z starts at 4:30 PM central

[Vortex]

If this pattern verifies per 18Z GFS with a displaced high to the east this would be very bad news for the eastern gulf coast/FL



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

[lonelymike]

Question: How often is the GFS run/released?

4 times a day, every 6 hours.

00z run starts at 10:30 PM central

06z starts at 4:30 AM central

12z starts at 10:30 AM central

18z starts at 4:30 PM central

Would add most accurate are 00Z and 12Z

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Vortex.

The last couple run have shown the scenario I explained earlier where the trough is far enough north to erode the ridge over the Gulf but does not dig deep enough to actually pick it up, which leads to a northern Gulf landfall.



The trough would have to dig deeper and pick it up to head NE into the Peninsula like the 00z run last night showed

[Ivanhater]

Question: How often is the GFS run/released?

4 times a day, every 6 hours.

00z run starts at 10:30 PM central

06z starts at 4:30 AM central

12z starts at 10:30 AM central

18z starts at 4:30 PM central

Would add most accurate are 00Z and 12Z

I've been hearing the 06 and 18z runs are not like they were a few years ago. They now have a lot more data in them now. Would need a Pro to explain that a little more though.

[lonelymike]

Michael,
What has the pressure reading been on the GFS runs? Eyeglasses are that good for the old man

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps continues to depict development



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Michael,
What has the pressure reading been on the GFS runs? Eyeglasses are that good for the old man

Shows 999mb, which after the switch to lower resolution after 192 hours is a pretty substantial system.

[lonelymike]

Cat 1 maybe high end Cat 2

[Ivanhater]

Take a look at the MJO forecast....activity will likely keep trucking along.

[Vortex]

It sure does Ivan...


looking forward to the 00z globals tonight....I'm sure all the usual suspects will be around

[otowntiger]

Yeah Vortex.

The last couple run have shown the scenario I explained earlier where the trough is far enough north to erode the ridge over the Gulf but does not dig deep enough to actually pick it up, which leads to a northern Gulf landfall.

It seems like with each successive run the system is weaker and weaker at landfall in the gulf. 2 days ago it was indicating a 974mb and now it looks like just a depression. I certainly don't think this is anything to get very excited over this far out.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Vortex.

The last couple run have shown the scenario I explained earlier where the trough is far enough north to erode the ridge over the Gulf but does not dig deep enough to actually pick it up, which leads to a northern Gulf landfall.

It seems like with each successive run the system is weaker and weaker at landfall in the gulf. 2 days ago it was indicating a 974mb and now it looks like just a depression. I certainly don't think this is anything to get very excited over this far out.

Actually the 12z run was stronger than both the 00Z and 06Z preceding runs. As far as globals go in that time frame and known intensity resolving problems, it is about as consistent as one can ask for.

[BigA]

Deleted[realized the MJO forecast was 2 weeks, not 40 days]

[Macrocane]

The MJO forecasts have poorly verified this season, but I agree that the fact that is a La Niña season plus the high SST makes me think that 3 storms in october are possible with one of them being major.

[Wx_Warrior]

I agree on consistentcy, but remember, the GFS was consistently not forming Karl.

Insert the: bears watching here!

[Vortex]

With the GFS pushing out a GOM potential storm a little later(September 28-Oct1) versus a week ago this increases the threat for the eastern Gulf/FL ...The last 4 runs have been New Orleans east with 3 of those across FL. Early this week the swings were from Northern Mexico to FL...While it's still very early in the game I suspect that the majority of the GFS runs from this point on will be from the central gulf coast east to fl...The long range Euro would also suggest this to be the target area based on the forecasted pattern 8-10 days out...having said that the 00z GFS run will probablly be in mexico

[Vortex]

Btw, the 18Z GFS ensembles have a fairly deep trough and in fact move the storm over central cuba and just to the east of SFL.

H+348


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal348.gif