Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

BINGO....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Shut up Michael

228 hours

[Vortex]

Classic early october set-up here and usually spells big trouble for florida

[Ivanhater]

240

[ROCK]

[cycloneye]

Patience Ivan

[Ivanhater]

252

[South Texas Storms]

is there an approaching trough from the west?

[Ivanhater]

Yes Luis..I'm gonna shut it from now on

Another piece of the puzzle comes into play. This wave is the culprit that sparks the SW Caribbean low pressure area.

[Ivanhater]

336 BOC

[South Texas Storms]

hahaha i think you called it vortex. back to western gom run this time...mexico.

[Ivanhater]

No clue why...very sharp trough..No ridge at all

[South Texas Storms]

that is one big storm though...its rain shield covers almost the entire gulf, wow.

[South Texas Storms]

whats it doing...just chilling in the gulf? just sitting there at the end of the run

[Vortex]

lol I do think the solution in bringing the energy(pg145) into the sw carribean and acting as the spark looks most reasonable at this time...These systems that develop in the SW carribean can be very slow movers and become extremely powerful...These swings as ivan has mentioned will continue until we sort out the long range pattern.....

[Ivanhater]

Heading NE...Very Opal like

[BigA]

whats it doing...just chilling in the gulf? just sitting there at the end of the run

The GFS often stalls or slows down storms in the long range, or so I've seen before.

[South Texas Storms]

so is there no ridge in the S.E. states during this run?

[cycloneye]

In summary Ivan and Vortex, the culprit continues to be PGI46L or is a new thing that develops in the Western Caribbean?

[Vortex]

climatology would suggest any sw carribean storm in late september/october usually lifts nw/n then NE and more times than not effects the eastern gulf...the pattern indicate by the gfs with a deep trough along 85w also is a strong sign that this type of pattern would more than likely lead to a central gulf coast to florida hit....