Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[srainhoutx]

In other words, a new thread for the Western Caribbean may be in order to continue posting the model runs. I am starting to think any development in the Western Caribbean may be triggered by energy from Southamerica instead from PGI46L, unless the models start to see PGI46L for development as GFS had until two days ago.

It is a problem at times to identify the culprit wth a masoonal trough.

[ROCK]

not much to see...at 42

[ROCK]

[gatorcane]

Look at the GFS from earlier this week. Development in the Western Caribbean continues to be 300+ hours out and is not happening much earlier than that....again a sign of a phantom storm.

ECMWF operational has basically showed nothing. Are there lower pressures forecasted across the Western Caribbean by the models? Sure but that is what you would expect as we roll into late September and into October.

At this point, I see no reason to believe we are going to see something in the Western Caribbean anytime soon. Maybe by mid October? Sure, but until I see the GFS stop pushing out the development timeline I am not convinced.

[ROCK]

something is a stirring....

[ROCK]

Look at the GFS from earlier this week. Development in the Western Caribbean continues to be 300+ hours out and is not happening much earlier than that....again a sign of a phantom storm.

ECMWF operational has basically showed nothing. Are there lower pressures forecasted across the Western Caribbean by the models? Sure but that is what you would expect as we roll into late September and into October.

At this point, I see no reason to believe we are going to see something in the Western Caribbean anytime soon. Maybe by mid October? Sure, but until I see the GFS stop pushing out the development timeline I am not convinced.

its showing it at 240hr and sooner than that....the ensembles of the EURO and CMC are showing it...NOGAPS is seeing it....give me a break... ignore the guidance....but lets be honest you have been harping on Carib development way back when Igor was a cloud. Now your totally against it. Can't have it both ways,,,

[ROCK]

someone going to tell me that with all these lows in the carib not one is going to develop....

[gatorcane]

Look at the GFS from earlier this week. Development in the Western Caribbean continues to be 300+ hours out and is not happening much earlier than that....again a sign of a phantom storm.

ECMWF operational has basically showed nothing. Are there lower pressures forecasted across the Western Caribbean by the models? Sure but that is what you would expect as we roll into late September and into October.

At this point, I see no reason to believe we are going to see something in the Western Caribbean anytime soon. Maybe by mid October? Sure, but until I see the GFS stop pushing out the development timeline I am not convinced.

its showing it at 240hr and sooner than that....the ensembles of the EURO and CMC are showing it...NOGAPS is seeing it....give me a break... ignore the guidance....but lets be honest you have been harping on Carib development way back when Igor was a cloud. Now your totally against it. Can't have it both ways,,,

I have been harping the Caribbean, but not necessarily the timeframe the GFS is showing which is out in fantasy land. Wouldn't surprise me that even 1 week from now the GFS hasn't changed much and keep showing something at 300 hours out. October will be the month.....................

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[South Texas Storms]

one of those lows if gonna develop rock! im feeling it!

[ROCK]

NOGAPS is running....out 12hrs

[CourierPR]

Look at the GFS from earlier this week. Development in the Western Caribbean continues to be 300+ hours out and is not happening much earlier than that....again a sign of a phantom storm.

ECMWF operational has basically showed nothing. Are there lower pressures forecasted across the Western Caribbean by the models? Sure but that is what you would expect as we roll into late September and into October.

At this point, I see no reason to believe we are going to see something in the Western Caribbean anytime soon. Maybe by mid October? Sure, but until I see the GFS stop pushing out the development timeline I am not convinced.

Gatorcane, you have become a master at authoritative flip flop posts.

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

[boca]

Gatorcane you definetly did a 180 from last year to this year.You thought that everything was coming to South Florida to its not gonna happen. No offense you know me but its just an oberservation.I think its funny thats all no offense.

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock....nogaps....really?

[ROCK]

216

[Ivanhater]

Wilma track this go round

[ROCK]

Rock....nogaps....really?

bro I got to hedge my bet..

[Ivanhater]

Gator, the time frame actually speed up in time this run

This is some phantom cane as you call it. Must be a record with how many runs the GFS has had it and all the ensemble support from all the major globals.