Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

Ridging to the north, lowering pressures over the SW carribean and 46 coming on to the scene around thursday....All coming together...

[Vortex]

I did a little climatology research this evening and here's what I came up with...

1)Most storms that originated over the western carribean between September 21-30th ended up landfalling between New orleans and the FL panhandale.

2)Most storms originating over the same area between October 1-10th made landfall over FL from the Panhandle east.


* The 18z GFS had a deep trough along the east coast which would imply a FL peninsula hit if this verified. This is the first run to indicate such a strong trough. If the 00z GFS has a similar solution than I will take note.

[ROCK]

the NAM is hinting what the CMC has shown the past few runs.....pinching off some energy and moving it north.....Vis loops earlier today showed something down there with some turning.

[Vortex]

00Z GFS rolling...

[JTD]

00Z GFS rolling...

Here we go!

[cycloneye]

Is small, but is there and continues to move westward.

[gatorcane]

Checking in for the 00z gfs.........

[Vortex]

H+36 46 nearing the windwards...lower pressures noted over the sw carribean similar to 00z nam.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

Hurricane Irene's formation sounded abit similar to what may happen in this situation as far as formation.

Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(1999)

A broad area of low pressure formed over the western Caribbean Sea on October 8, and it persisted until October 11, when a tropical wave reached the area and caused the convection to organize, resulting in the development of a low-level circulation. Convection increased and organized around the circulation's center late on October 12, and the system organized into Tropical Depression Thirteen on October 13 off the north coast of Honduras. The depression continued to organize over the favorable conditions present in the Caribbean Sea, and attained tropical storm status later on the 13th, when it was assigned the name Irene.[1] Operationally, the system remained a tropical wave until it already reached tropical storm strength.[3]

Tropical Storm Irene strengthened as it moved northward, and reached maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (115 km/h) early on October 14. Operationally, Irene was upgraded to a hurricane on the 14th, although later analysis after the hurricane season indicated it remained a tropical storm until later. Irene continued to move towards the north-northeast, crossed over the western portion of the Isla de la Juventud as a strong tropical storm, and hours later, it struck mainland Cuba near Batabano. The storm was able to strengthen further over the Florida Straits, and Irene attained hurricane status on October 15. It passed over Key West, turned more to the north-northeast, and struck mainland Florida at Cape Sable as an 80 mph (130 km/h) hurricane.[1]

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_090l.gif

90hr

[Ivanhater]

114 hours

[ROCK]

nothing to see yet...though it does show a vortex at 850mb level

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_114l.gif

[Vortex]

H+132 46 on the scene, low pressure establishing itself.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[Ivanhater]

132 hours..clearly from the wave coming from the east

[Ivanhater]

Not too impressed through 156 hours

[Ivanhater]

168..looks like a no go this round

[Vortex]

General broad area of low pressure over SW carribean...typical of these systems initially..should consolidate and organize by h+174 if keeping with past GFS runs..

[Ivanhater]

174..nothing much

[ROCK]

[Vortex]

If we get nothing organized this run that would be the first time the GFS has indicated a complete no go since the 18Z run a week ago this past friday...