Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

Very common with these systems...slow to start but look out when they gel..often large and dangerous.

[Vortex]

H+192..final gel begins between honduras and jamaica


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[cycloneye]

Now we are in developing phase.

192 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

H+216 were off and running near jamaica...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Take a look at the 500 MB charts. GFS is having a hard time, it keeps cutting of lows in different places. Yesterday it was the mid Atlantic. Today it pinches off a cut off low around Arkansas.

[Vortex]

H+264 classic big ticket item over the nw carribean..




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

[cycloneye]

Powerful hurricane slams into South Florida.

[Vortex]

Lookout sfl on this run...one of the strongest runs yet and classic...don't pay attention so much to the location as the continued consistancy of the real liklihood of a hurricane over the NW carribean in 7-10 days.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

[Ivanhater]

The 500mb chart is still quite unstable on the GFS, indicative of flopping around in the future. Quite a powerful cane this run though.

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro from last night has a very different Upper air pattern than the GFS

[Vortex]

Very LARGE and powerful hurricane...The ingredients will be there.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

[BigA]

That last GFS run was like a 1999 Irene on steroids...classic late season la nina track.

[Vortex]

sure is big A....This one will have the goods...Its classic and the players are arriving as we speak..I'll see everyone for the euro and 18z..gym and some football till later...

[cycloneye]

OuterBanker,12z GFS run ends in the Carolinas, but is lalaland territory, you know what that means.

[Weatherfreak000]

I would have to believe SFL is bigtime at risk with the La Nina pattern....this far out though it is impossible to say.

Taking a stab at it though I would say Florida residents need to keep an eye on the action next week for sure.

[srainhoutx]

The key thing to take from all the model runs to date is that guidance strongly suggests a large storm with a genesis within the next 6-10 days in the NW Caribbean IMO.

[Ivanhater]

The Big 3 rundown...All 3 have different upper air patterns. The Gulf is covered on these. No way we are even close to nailing down an area.

Euro...BOC




Canadian..North Central Gulf




GFS...South Florida

[cycloneye]

12z Canadian has a SW Caribbean feature.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ladylight]

Wait, now they're ALL saying somewhere in FL? They can't all be wrong, can they? (I hope so!)

[Florida1118]

Wait, now they're ALL saying somewhere in FL? They can't all be wrong, can they? (I hope so!)

Nope. They are still in the general area of the Gulf. No set State yet.

The Big 3 rundown...All 3 have different upper air patterns. The Gulf is covered on these. No way we are even close to nailing down an area.

Euro...BOC




Canadian..North Central Gulf




GFS...South Florida