Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Migle]

Wait, now they're ALL saying somewhere in FL? They can't all be wrong, can they? (I hope so!)

Not all of them. CMC looks like NGOM and EURO shows a BOC storm. It's really to early to tell a final landfall point though this far out.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Florida1118]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2010091912&set=Tropical

Looks like a FL landfall/N GOM this run. I still think this is a Texas/Louisiana storm.

[hurricaneCW]

Climatology would not suggest a Texas/BOC/Mexico system and with the weaknesses around the east getting even stronger, I think the areas under the greatest risk will be from eastern Louisiana to Florida. The latest gfs would be a very damaging track with a very strong hurricane. It shows the storm gradually sliding up the coast, hits south Florida and then gradually moves to impact the Carolinas.

[Florida1118]

Climatology would not suggest a Texas/BOC/Mexico system and with the weaknesses around the east getting even stronger, I think the areas under the greatest risk will be from eastern Louisiana to Florida. The latest gfs would be a very damaging track with a very strong hurricane. It shows the storm gradually sliding up the coast, hits south Florida and then gradually moves to impact the Carolinas.

Ya I understand the Climo. My gut of non-science says Louisiana and Texas, but I feel its going to slide east. Also on the model run, it looks like a EPAC system gets into the Caribbean. (Yes I know its NOGAPS )

[blp]

No question we are going to have something develop with all the model consensus. The question I have with the GFS is that in the last three runs it continues to delay development until the 192hr and it will be difficult to pinpoint what influence the trough will have and whether or not the ridge will build in if we continue to have that delay. I guess the wait continues. Once we get a consolidated area I will start to look at possible landfall.

[Andrew92]

Well, Keith in 2000 took a BOC path after forming into a tropical depression on September 28. Plus, don't forget about storms like Roxanne and Iris.

Still, I've been saying on some other threads that I think an October hit in Florida will come from the Caribbean. I'll address this further in my weekly prediction, which will be posted shortly after the 11 PM advisories.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

PGI46L is now a surface trough per 2 PM TWD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 13N48W
4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1757.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Surprised nobody posted the 12z ECMWF that has a broad low pressure in the NW Caribbean/GOM. Maybe watching football.

[blp]

Surprised nobody posted the 12z ECMWF that has a broad low pressure in the NW Caribbean/GOM. Maybe watching football.

We need the high resolution cycloneye, I looks huge on that image.

[ROCK]

Surprised nobody posted the 12z ECMWF that has a broad low pressure in the NW Caribbean/GOM. Maybe watching football.

Nah, no football for me until 3pm CST. ..at the Yucatan channel at 240hr.....

Edit...the run had not updated yet.... 240 you got a huge broad all over the SGOM....

[ConvergenceZone]

No question we are going to have something develop with all the model consensus. The question I have with the GFS is that in the last three runs it continues to delay development until the 192hr and it will be difficult to pinpoint what influence the trough will have and whether or not the ridge will build in if we continue to have that delay. I guess the wait continues. Once we get a consolidated area I will start to look at possible landfall.

I totally agree with this statement. Had the models predicted something like this for a couple of days then backed off of it, I would start to be skeptical
that anything would develop. However, it's very concerning how the models are STILL all showing development and a couple of the models showing a very strong hurricane.......

I'm anxious to see what the future models will bring..And for those posting all of the model maps, keep up the great work!!! We really appreciate it.....
It's going to be very interesting how this all unfolds.

[cycloneye]

No question we are going to have something develop with all the model consensus. The question I have with the GFS is that in the last three runs it continues to delay development until the 192hr and it will be difficult to pinpoint what influence the trough will have and whether or not the ridge will build in if we continue to have that delay. I guess the wait continues. Once we get a consolidated area I will start to look at possible landfall.

I totally agree with this statement. Had the models predicted something like this for a couple of days then backed off of it, I would start to be skeptical
that anything would develop. However, it's very concerning how the models are STILL all showing development and a couple of the models showing a very strong hurricane.......

I'm anxious to see what the future models will bring..And for those posting all of the model maps, keep up the great work!!! We really appreciate it.....
It's going to be very interesting how this all unfolds.

To name you an example of consistency,GFS has started to show development since 9 days ago on consecutive runs and that is telling.Is like another preDean for GFS, as at that moment, it showed it for two weeks and we know the rest with Dean.

[ROCK]

I wouldnt bet on any landfall area right now....climo or not...we dont have a system yet to track...to say FL is at risk is a true statement given this time of year....but so is every other gulf state at this point.....Rita got as far west as TX on Sept 25...timing of any trof coming down and if its picked up is key here. Slight delay in the trof high builds in and westward we go....

[blp]

[quote
To name you an example of consistency,GFS has started to show development since 9 days ago on consecutive runs and that is telling.Is like another preDean for GFS, as at that moment, it showed it for two weeks and we know the rest with Dean.[/quote]

No question about the consistency from the GFS. It has been amazing in how long it has been showing this before any other models. I am waiting to see cyclogensis inside 7 days so that we can start to pick out the upper level steering pattern. I think we are going to start seeing that happen very soon. Also, I have had to throw out the old biases with the GFS because of the upgrade, it is basically a new model. Let see what happens....

[Vortex]

Just back and digesting the mid-afternoon guidance. Euro swings further east from its 00z run with a broad area of low pressure near the NW carribean. Euro/Cmc/Gfs are in remarkably close agreement in the long-term now. In later runs I expect to see the Euro get much stronger with this feature. 12 Z Nogaps heading for western cuba/fl....




12Z loop


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical









Nogaps loop:

[Florida1118]

It reminds me of Charley and Wilma. Wilma at the start of run (position) and Charley, were he came off Cuba.

[Weatherfreak000]

I wouldnt bet on any landfall area right now....climo or not...we dont have a system yet to track...to say FL is at risk is a true statement given this time of year....but so is every other gulf state at this point.....Rita got as far west as TX on Sept 25...timing of any trof coming down and if its picked up is key here. Slight delay in the trof high builds in and westward we go....

Not only that, but analog years of Moderate to strong La Nina has suggested landfall can occur from brownsville to key west...I mean you ask for it and it has happened. This argument holds water for at least the next 7 days, and that is exactly the time frame we are looking here.

[Vortex]

Whole lota energy thats going to be heading into the western carribean from 46 and the area over the eastern carribean presently over the next 7 days...add in a broad area of low pressure and a monsoon trough and all the ingredients will be at play. While genesis may be slow as it will take some time to gel once it does a large and potentially strong cyclone looks reasonable at this point...

[Vortex]

I wouldnt bet on any landfall area right now....climo or not...we dont have a system yet to track...to say FL is at risk is a true statement given this time of year....but so is every other gulf state at this point.....Rita got as far west as TX on Sept 25...timing of any trof coming down and if its picked up is key here. Slight delay in the trof high builds in and westward we go....

Not only that, but analog years of Moderate to strong La Nina has suggested landfall can occur from brownsville to key west...I mean you ask for it and it has happened. This argument holds water for at least the next 7 days, and that is exactly the time frame we are looking here.

Agree, while the recent trends have been an eastern gulf/fl threat id be surprised it we didn't switch back towards the western/central gulf with future runs...The pattern this time of your is very fluid so your going to have big swings between runs...It will be another 4-7 days before there is any real confidence in a potential landfall area..